Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University July 2, 2020
U. S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) $20,000 8 $19,000 6 $18,000 4 $17,000 2 $16,000 0 % $15,000 -2 $14,000 -4 $13,000 -6 $12,000 -8 $11,000 $10,000 -10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 2019-Q1 2020 +0.32% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2012 Dollars )
Annual Change in U. S. Payroll Jobs Month-Over-Year 9500 4500 -500 Jun 2019 – Jun 2020 -5500 -13,226M -10500 -15500 -20500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month -1000 -6000 Jun 2020 – Jul 2020 +4.8M -11000 -16000 -21000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Jobs 1-mo. change total payroll jobs (in thousands) (in millions) 10000 155000 150000 5000 Since 2010 (May 2010) +7.9M 145000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Since 2019 140000 (12-mo. ∆) -5000 -13.2M 135000 -10000 Jun – Jul 130000 2020 (1 mo. ∆) -15000 +4.8M 125000 -20000 120000 -25000 115000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector 12-Month Net Change (June 2020) total = -12.8M Ranked by Size in 2019 (000s) Educ & Health Svcs -1,359 Prof. & Bus. Svcs -1,574 State & Local Govt -1,333 Leisure & Hosp. -4,486 Retail Trade -1,215 Manufacturing -743 Financial -124 Construction -330 Wholesale Trade -282 Other Services -707 Transp. & Util. -444 Information -286 Federal Govt. 56 -5000.0 -4500.0 -4000.0 -3500.0 -3000.0 -2500.0 -2000.0 -1500.0 -1000.0 -500.0 0.0 500.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector 1-Month Net Change (Jun 2020) total = +4.8M Ranked by Size in 2019 (000s) Educ & Health Svcs 568 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 306 State & Local Govt 32 Leisure & Hosp. 2,088 Retail Trade 740 Manufacturing 356 Financial 32 Construction 158 Wholesale Trade 68 Other Services 357 Transp. & Util. 99 Information 9 Federal Govt. 1 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Percentage of Job Gains since April Losses total = +2.9M Ranked by Size in 2019 (000s) Educ & Health Svcs 38% Prof. & Bus. Svcs 20% State & Local Govt -56% Leisure & Hosp. 44% Retail Trade 48% Manufacturing 44% Financial 25% Construction 61% Wholesale Trade 23% Other Services 49% Transp. & Util. 14% Information -10% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0 12.0 10.0 Jun 2020 11.1% 8.0 % Jun – Jul 1-mo. ∆ 6.0 - 2.2% 4.0 2.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U. S. Unemployment 25.0 June 18.0% 20.0 U-6 15.0 June Jun 2019- 11.1% Jun 2020 10.0 UR (12-mo.) change: 5.0 U-6 +10.8% 0.0 UR +7.4% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 LFPR -1.5% 63.50 63.25 63.00 LFPR June 62.75 61.5% 62.50 62.25 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average (2007-2020) (000s) 5,175 Jun 27 4,175 S.A. + 1.43M 3,175 2007-20 average 2,175 401.2k 1,175 175 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average (2011-2020) (000s) 7200 6200 Jun 27 5200 S.A. 4200 + 1.43M 3200 2011-20 average 2200 383k 1200 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Weekly Earnings U. S., Total Private, Across all Industries 12-month 1,100 % change 1,000 (MOTYC) 900 Jun 2020 800 Avg Hourly Wages 700 +5.0% 600 Avg Weekly 500 Earnings +5.3% 400 300 Real Avg 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Weekly Average Real Average Earnings Weekly Weekly Earnings +7.3% Earnings (1982-84 dollars) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Labor Productivity Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted 6 115 Base year (100) = 2012 110 5 105 4 100 3 95 2 90 1 85 0 80 -1 75 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 QOTYC Index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Consumer Confidence 180.0 160.0 Present Situation Index 140.0 120.0 June 2020 Pres. = 86.2 100.0 Exp. = 106.0 80.0 (1985 = 100) Expectations Index 60.0 40.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Consumer Prices 2001-2019 Year over Year % Change 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 12-month % change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Monthly Consumer Prices 2001 – 2020 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 12-month % change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Interest Rates 2001 - 2019 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 30-Yr 10-Yr Treas % 4.0 Fed 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10-year/1-year Treasury Yield Constant Maturity Rate Yield Spread (1953-Present) Not Seasonally Adjusted 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 % 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 -3.50 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Note: horizontal axis “tick marks” reflect June 1 of each year
U. S. Home Sales New and Existing (2013-Present) (000s) (000s) 8,000 800 7,500 750 7,000 700 New Home Sales Existing Home Sales 6,500 650 12-month change May 19 – May 20 6,000 600 - 26.64% Existing Home Sales 5,500 550 New Home Sales 12-month change 5,000 500 May 19 – May 20 +13.04% 4,500 450 4,000 400 3,500 350 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: U.S. Census (New Home Sales) [Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate], National Association of Realtors (Existing Home Sales)
Change in U. S. Personal Consumption Expenditures 6 5.1 5 3.8 3.7 4 3.6 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 2 1.5 1.5 1 0 -0.2 -1 -1.3 -2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U. S. GDP Annual % Change 2007 – 2018 % 4 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 2 1.6 1.6 % 0 -0.1 -2 -2.5 -4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis
The Washington Economy
Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 120,000 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.52% 6,843 100,000 4,495 21,517 80,000 Population Change 47,495 39,715 43,070 36,871 44,760 40,581 60,000 24,872 39,621 22,977 40,000 49,169 48,235 47,989 47,150 46,096 43,886 42,616 20,000 40,778 39,384 0 -21,543 -24,741 -27,907 -29,748 -31,010 -30,581 -20,000 -40,000 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program (2018 estimates)
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