Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Michael Correll Dominik Moritz Jeffrey Heer 1
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Michael Correll Dominik Moritz Jeffrey Heer 2
Outline What We Did Why We Did It Why We Think It Works 3
Outline What We Did Why We Did It Why We Think It Works 4
2016 Election 5
2016 U.S. Election 6
2016 U.S. Election Clinton is only 1.6 margins of error away! (p>0.05) 7
2016 U.S. Election Clinton is only 1.6 margins of error away! (p>0.05) How to convey uncertainty? 8
2016 U.S. Election Clinton is only 1.6 margins of error away! (p>0.05) How to convey uncertainty? How to encourage people from refraining from deciding? 9
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palette 10
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palette 11
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palette 12
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Traditional Bivariate Map 13
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Traditional Bivariate Map VSUP 14
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Traditional Bivariate Map VSUP 15
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Traditional Bivariate Map VSUP 16
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes Traditional Bivariate Map VSUP 17
VSUP 18
Tree-Quantization 19
Tree-Quantization 20
Tree-Quantization 21
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Outline What We Did Why We Did It Why We Think It Works 23
Uncertainty In Maps 24
Uncertainty In Maps Data Map 25
Uncertainty In Maps Data Map Uncertainty Map 26
Uncertainty In Maps Data Map Uncertainty Map 27
Uncertainty In Maps Data Map Uncertainty Map 28
Uncertainty In Maps Data Map Uncertainty Map 29
Uncertainty In Maps Data Map Uncertainty Map 30
Juxtaposition Data Map Uncertainty Map 31
Data Map 32
Juxtaposed Uncertainty 33
Why This Is Bad 2x Space Requirements 34
Why This Is Bad 2x Space Requirements Requires Searching 35
Why This Is Bad 2x Space Requirements Requires Searching Ignorable 36
Superposition 37
Bivariate Map 1928 38
Bivariate Map 1928 1874 39
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VSUP 41
VSUP VSUPs are a bivariate mapping of data and uncertainty that allow fine-grain comparisons when data are more certain, and coarser comparisons when data are less certain. 42
Outline What We Did Why We Did It Why We Think It Works 43
Will This Work? 44
Will This Work? 45
Bivariate Maps Are Hard! “[R]eading Two-Variable Color Maps at the elementary, intermediate, or superior level is at the very least difficult, and may be impossible.” -Wainer & Francolini, 1980 46
Discrete Color Maps Are Inaccurate! “[W]ith possible rare exceptions, continuous color scales represent the data more effectively than binned color scales, so we should stick with them.” -Few, 2017 47
Evaluating VSUPs 48
Evaluating VSUPs 49
Evaluating VSUPs 50
Alternative Designs 51
Alternative Designs 52
Alternative Designs 53
Alternative Designs 54
Alternative Designs 55
Alternative Designs 56
Methods 2 MTurk Experiments: Identification Task Prediction Task 48 Participants (w/o CVD) 2112 Trials 57
Identification Task 58
Value of 0.45, Uncertainty of 0.1 59
Value of 0.45 60
Value of 0.45 61
Uncertainty of 0.1 62
Uncertainty of 0.1 63
Uncertainty of 0.1 64
Identification Task 65
Value of 0.7, Uncertainty of 0.4 66
Uncertainty of 0.4 67
Uncertainty of 0.4 68
Value of 0.7 69
Value of 0.7 70
Value of 0.7 71
Results 72
Results 73
Value of 0.7, Uncertainty of 0.4 74
Value of 0.7, Uncertainty of 0.4 75
Results 76
Results 77
Results 78
Results Interference disrupts Continuous Maps Search disrupts Juxtaposed Maps 79
Prediction Task How can we induce and compare risk-averse behavior in heatmaps? 80
Prediction Task 81
Prediction Task 82
Prediction Task 83
Prediction Task 84
Prediction Task Could be Dangerous! Definitely Safe. 85
Placing Ships 86
Where To Put The Last Ships? 87
Where To Put The Last Ships? 88
Where To Put The Last Ship? 89
Where To Put The Last Ships? 90
Where To Put The Last Ships? 91
Results Bivariate Maps encourage risk seeking VSUP Maps encourage risk aversion 92
VSUPs are an unignorable way of integrating data and uncertainty. VSUPs make people more cautious in their decision-making. 93
Thanks! This work was supported by a Moore Foundation Data-Driven Discovery Investigator award. Study materials available at: https://github.com/uwdata/papers-vsup Make your own VSUPs at: https://github.com/uwdata/vsup 94
Extra Slides 95
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Flight Delay 97
Flight Delay 98
Flight Delay 99
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