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Understanding and managing Understanding and managing eutrophication in coastal lagoons eutrophication in coastal lagoons ERF 2003, Seattle Session SPS-12 Coastal Lagoons September 16 th 2003 S.B. Bricker J.G.Ferreira T. Simas A. Nobre A. Mason NOAA – U.S.A. http://www.noaa.gov IMAR – Portugal http://www.imar.pt

Topics Topics � ASSETS/NEEA (approaches) ASSETS/NEEA (approaches) � 4 � Systems (key descriptors) Systems (key descriptors) � 1 � Results (ASSETS/NEEA scores) Results (ASSETS/NEEA scores) � 4 Slides � Research models and ASSETS Research models and ASSETS � 3 � Conclusions Conclusions � 1 13+2 Ria Formosa: Ancão

Key aspects of the ASSETS/ ASSETS/NEEA NEEA approach approach Key aspects of the The NEEA approach may be divided � Tidal freshwater (<0.5 Tidal freshwater (<0.5 psu psu) ) � � Mixing zone (0.5 Mixing zone (0.5- -25 25 psu psu) ) into three parts: � � Division of estuaries into � Seawater zone (>25 Seawater zone (>25 psu psu) ) � homogeneous areas Spatial and temporal quality Spatial and temporal quality � Evaluation of data completeness of datasets (completeness) of datasets (completeness) and reliability Confidence in results Confidence in results � Application of indices (sampling and analytical (sampling and analytical reliability) reliability) State State Overall Eutrophic Eutrophic Condition (OEC) index Condition (OEC) index Overall Pressure Pressure Overall Human Influence (OHI) index Overall Human Influence (OHI) index Response Response Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) index index S.B. Bricker, J.G. Ferreira, T. Simas, 2003. An integrated methodology for assessment of estuarine trophic status. Ecological Modelling, In Press.

ASSETS extensions to to the NEEA approach the NEEA approach ASSETS extensions � Use of relational databases to assimilate dispersed data into an easily searchable data mining framework; � Use of simple models to determine pressure; � Use of GIS techniques to improve spatial weighting, and additional zonation if required; � Use of statistical criteria for some of the descriptors of state, such as chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen; � Synthesis of results using a PSR approach Complementing datasets using research Complementing datasets using research models (tested for the Ria Formosa) models (tested for the Ria Formosa) � Use of seaweed biogeochemical and population models; � Use of “local” models for O 2 in intertidal areas;

ASSETS calculation of secondary symptom ASSETS calculation of secondary symptom dissolved oxygen scores dissolved oxygen scores 550 550 100 100 500 500 90 90 450 450 80 80 Frequency - Tidal freshwater Frequency - Tidal freshwater Frequency - Mixing Frequency - Mixing 400 400 Cumulative percentage Cumulative percentage 70 70 Frequency - Seawater Frequency - Seawater Number of results Number of results Cumulative % Tidal freshwater Cumulative % Tidal freshwater 350 350 60 60 Cumulative % Mixing Cumulative % Mixing 300 300 Cumulative % Seawater Cumulative % Seawater 50 50 250 250 40 40 200 200 30 30 150 150 20 20 100 100 10 10 50 50 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 More More Dissolved oxygen classes (mg l -1 ) Dissolved oxygen classes (mg l -1 )

ASSETS scoring system for PSR ASSETS scoring system for PSR Grade 5 4 3 2 1 Pressure (OHI) Low Moderate low Moderate Moderate high High State (OEC) Low Moderate low Moderate Moderate high High Response Improve high Improve low No change Worsen low Worsen high (DFO) Metric Combination matrix Class High P 5 5 5 4 4 4 (5%) 5 5 5 5 5 5 S 5 4 3 5 4 3 R Good P 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 (19%) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 S 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 5 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3 R Moderate 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 P (32%) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 S R 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 5 4 3 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 5 5 4 Poor P 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 (24%) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 S 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 4 3 2 1 3 2 1 5 4 R Bad P 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (19%) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 S 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 R

Key descriptors for the four lagoon systems Key descriptors for the four lagoon systems MD inland Chincoteague Ria de Ria bays bay Aveiro Formosa Pressure Population (X 10 3 ) 19-171 12-108 250-300 124-211 Nutrient loading (tN y -1 ) 550 913 2760 1028 State Volume (X 10 6 m 3 ) 56 267 84 92 Mean depth (m) 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 Mean tidal range (m) 0.7 0.5 2 2 Water temperature ( o C) 2.0-32 -1-33 10.5-24.5 *1 14.0-23.8 *1 Salinity 28 29 0.7-35.5 *1 34.9-37.0 *1 Water residence 253 183 4 0.5-2 time (days) Impact Main impact Chlorophyll a HABs SAV loss Macroalgae Factors HABs Macroalgae Red tides Intertidal O 2 Macroalgae Bivalve mortality *1 : 5 th – 95 th percentile

MD Inland Bays – – NEEA NEEA/ASSETS /ASSETS Application Application MD Inland Bays ASSETS: BAD Index Indices Methods Parameters Value Level of expression Overall Human Dilution potential Low High Susceptibility MODERATE Influence (OHI) susceptibility Flushing potential Low HIGH ASSETS: 2 Moderate nutrient input Nutrient inputs Chlorophyll a 1.0 High Epiphytes No Data PSM *1 Overall Macroalgae 1.0 High Eutrophic Condition (OEC) HIGH Dissolved Oxygen 0.50 Moderate ASSETS: 1 Submerged Aquatic (SAV has increased) SSM *2 Vegetation Nuisance and Toxic 1.0 High Blooms Determination of Future Outlook IMPROVE Future nutrient pressures decrease Future nutrient (DFO) LOW pressures ASSETS: 4 *1 – Primary symptoms     Expression Symptom level n – Total number of zones n A ∑ method     = z of expression Az – Area of zone     *2 – Secondary symptoms A value     value for estuary At – Total estuary area = i 1 t method

Chincoteague Bay – – NEEA NEEA/ASSETS /ASSETS Application Application Chincoteague Bay ASSETS: BAD Index Indices Methods Parameters Value Level of expression Overall Human Dilution potential Moderate High Susceptibility MODERATE Influence (OHI) susceptibility Flushing potential Low ASSETS: 3 Low nutrient input Nutrient inputs Chlorophyll a 1.0 High Epiphytes No Data PSM *1 Overall Macroalgae 1.0 High Eutrophic Condition (OEC) HIGH Dissolved Oxygen 0 No problem ASSETS: 1 Submerged Aquatic (SAV has increased) SSM *2 Vegetation Nuisance and Toxic 1.0 High Blooms Determination of Future Outlook IMPROVE Future nutrient pressures decrease Future nutrient (DFO) LOW pressures ASSETS: 4 *1 – Primary symptoms     Expression Symptom level n – Total number of zones n A ∑ method     = z of expression Az – Area of zone     *2 – Secondary symptoms A value     value for estuary At – Total estuary area = i 1 t method

Ria de Aveiro – – NEEA NEEA/ASSETS /ASSETS Application Application Ria de Aveiro ASSETS: MOD Index Indices Methods Parameters Value Level of expression Overall Human Dilution potential High Low Susceptibility MODERATE Influence (OHI) susceptibility Flushing potential Moderate LOW ASSETS: 4 High nutrient input Nutrient inputs Chlorophyll a 1 0.33 Epiphytes 0 PSM *1 Overall Moderate Macroalgae 0 Eutrophic Condition (OEC) Dissolved Oxygen 0 MODERATE ASSETS: 3 Submerged Aquatic 0.5 0.5 SSM *2 Vegetation Moderate Nuisance and Toxic 0 Blooms Determination of Future Outlook NO Future nutrient pressures decrease Future nutrient (DFO) CHANGE pressures ASSETS: 3 *1 – Primary symptoms     Expression Symptom level n – Total number of zones n A ∑ method     = z of expression Az – Area of zone     *2 – Secondary symptoms A value     value for estuary At – Total estuary area = i 1 t method

Ria Formosa – – NEEA NEEA/ASSETS /ASSETS Application Application Ria Formosa ASSETS: GOOD Index Indices Methods Parameters Value Level of expression Overall Human Dilution potential High Moderate Susceptibility MODERATE Influence (OHI) susceptibility Flushing potential Low ASSETS: 3 Moderate nutrient input Nutrient inputs Chlorophyll a 0.25 0.57 Epiphytes 0.50 PSM *1 Overall Moderate Macroalgae 0.96 Eutrophic Condition (OEC) MODERATE Dissolved Oxygen 0 LOW ASSETS: 4 Submerged Aquatic 0.25 0.25 SSM *2 Vegetation Low Nuisance and Toxic 0 Blooms Determination of Future Outlook IMPROVE Future nutrient pressures decrease Future nutrient (DFO) LOW pressures ASSETS: 4 *1 – Primary symptoms     Expression Symptom level n – Total number of zones n A ∑ method     = z of expression Az – Area of zone     *2 – Secondary symptoms A value     value for estuary At – Total estuary area = i 1 t method