UNDERSTANDI NG UNDERSTANDI NG ELECTI ONS ELECTI ONS I N PAKI STAN I N PAKI STAN Dr. Ijaz Ijaz Shafi Gilani Shafi Gilani Dr. Chairman Gallup Pakistan Chairman Gallup Pakistan 25 January, 2008 - 1 -
1 1 Prospects for Prospects for Elections 2 0 0 8 Elections 2 0 0 8 2 2 Electoral Behaviour Behaviour and and Electoral the History of Rigging the History of Rigging - 2 -
ELECTI ONS 2 0 0 8 ELECTI ONS 2 0 0 8 8 th S 8 th NATI ONAL ELECTI ONS PAKI STAN ’ ’S NATI ONAL ELECTI ONS PAKI STAN Past History O Yahya 1 9 7 0 O Bangladesh O Bhutto 1 9 7 7 O PNA O Party less 1 9 8 5 O Zia ul Haq O Benazir Tenure 1 1 9 8 8 O I JI / Naw az O Naw az 1 9 9 0 Tenure 1 O Benazir 1 9 9 3 Tenure 2 O Naw az 1 9 9 7 Tenure 2 O Pervez Musharraf 2 0 0 0 ? 2 0 0 8 - 3 -
3 DECI SI VE FACTORS 3 DECI SI VE FACTORS Geography or Turf Electoral Arenas Behaviour Patterns Voting Patterns System Effects Rules of the Electoral Gam e - 4 -
GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF NA SEATS Population: 165 Million Continued… 272 PAKISTAN Registered Voters: ~ 80 Million + ~~ - 5 -
Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF PUNJAB 150 Southern Punjab 44 Bahawalpur 5 Multan 6 Rahimyar Khan 6 Seats: 2 Seats:2 Muzaffargarh 5 Seats:3 Seats: 3 Vehari 4 Seats: 7 Seats:7 Khanewal 4 Bahawalnagar 4 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 Seats:2 Dera Ghazi Khan 3 Seats:2 Seats:2 Seats: 2 Seats: 4 Seats:4 Rajan Pur 2 Seats: 5 Lodhran 2 Seats:5 Seats:2 Seats: 2 Seats:2 Seats: 2 Seats: 3 Pakpattan 3 Seats:3 Seats:7 Seats: 7 Central Punjab 57 Seats:5 Seats: 5 Seats:2 Seats: 2 Lahore 13 Seats:7 Seats: 7 Seats: 1 3 Gujranwala 7 Seats:13 Seats:2 Seats: 2 Sheikhupura 7 Seats:6 Seats: 6 Seats: 1 1 Seats:11 Sialkot 5 Seats: 5 Seats:5 Kasur 5 Seats:2 Seats: 2 Seats: 3 Okara 5 Seats:3 Seats:5 Seats: 5 Seats: 4 Seats:4 Seats: 4 Gujrat 4 Seats:5 Seats: 5 Sahiwal 4 Seats:3 Seats:4 Seats: 3 Seats: 3 Narowal 3 Seats: 3 Seats:6 Seats: 6 Seats:4 Seats: 4 Mandi Bahauddin 2 Seats: 2 Seats:2 Hafizabad 2 Seats:4 Seats: 4 Western Punjab 33 Mianwali 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 Khushab 2 Bhakkar 2 Seats: 5 Seats: 5 Sargodha 5 Layyah 2 Jhang 6 Seats: 6 Seats: 6 Faisalabad 11 Toba Tek Singh 3 NA SEATS Northern Punjab 16 Rawalpindi 7 Islamabad 2 150 Attock 3 55% PUNJAB Population: 55% Jhelum 2 PUNJAB Continued… Chakwal 2 + ~~ - 6 -
Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF SI NDH 61 Karachi City 20 Seats: 3 I nterior Sindh 41 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 Sakkur 2 Ghotki 2 Khairpur 3 Sindh Seats: 4 Seats: 2 Nawabshah 2 Naushero Feroz 2 Seats: 2 Larkana 4 Shikarpur 2 Seats: 3 Seats: 3 Jacobabad 3 Mirpur Khas 3 Seats: 2 Tharparkar 2 Sanghar 3 Seats: 3 Hyderabad 6 Badin 2 Thatha 2 Seats: 6 Seats: 3 Dadu 3 Seats: 20 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 NA SEATS 61 25% SINDH Population: 25% SINDH Continued… + ~~ - 7 -
Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF NWFP 35 Peshawar (Valley Region) 13 Peshawar 4 Seats: 1 Nowshera 2 Charsadda 2 Mardan 3 Swabi 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Southern NWFP 7 Kohat 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Karak 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Bannu 1 Seats: 3 Seats: 1 Seats: 2 Hangu 1 Seats: 2 Lakki Marwat 1 Seats: 4 Seats: 2 D. I. Khan 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 1 Seats: 2 Malakand 8 Malakand 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Shangla 1 Seats: 1 Swat 2 Upper Dir 1 Seats: 1 Lower Dir 1 Chitral 1 Buner 1 Seats: 2 Hazara Division 7 Abbottabad 2 NA SEATS Mansehra 2 35 Haripur 1 15% Kohistan 1 NWFP Population: 15% NWFP Batagram 1 Continued… + ~~ - 8 -
Calculus of Electoral Politics in Pakistan 2007 Continued… … … GEOGRAPHY OR TURF GEOGRAPHY OR TURF BALUCHI STAN 14 Quetta Sub Region 6 Quetta 1 Quetta, Chagi, Matsang 1 Pishin, Ziarat 1 Seats: Loralai 1 1 Zhob, Killa Saifullah 1 Seats: Killa Abdullah 1 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 8 Kalat Mekran Sub Region 1 Seats: 2 Kohlu, Sibi, Dera Bugti 1 Nasirabad 1 Seats: 1 Kachhi 1 Kalat, Mastung 1 Seats: 1 Khuzdar 1 Awaran, Lasbela 1 Seats: 1 Seats: Panjgur, Kharan 1 1 Kech, Gwadar 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 NA SEATS 14 5% BALOCHISTAN Population: 5% BALOCHISTAN + ~~ Continued… - 9 -
Significant Points Significant Points 1 - Provinces are vastly different in Size 2 - Each Province has its unique DI VERSI TY in Voting Behaviour Sindh: Urban-Rural Balochistan: Pashtun-Baloch NW FP: Peshawar Valley Hazara Division Southern Divisions Malakand Division PUNJAB: North Central South West Continued… - 10 -
- 11 - Vary from Province to Province Political Com petitors Significant Points 3 -
Vote Bank All Pakistan Voting Pattern Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 % of votes PML and PML-led 23% 30% 37% 40% 45% 39% Alliances No. of seats 18 54 106 72 134 99* % of votes PPP and PPP-led 39% 38% 37% 38% 21% 26% Alliances No. of seats 81 93 44 86 18 61 % of votes 38% 30% 26% 22% 32% 35% Others ** No. of seats 39 57 57 58 52 109 - 12 -
Continued….. Vote Bank Sindh Voting Pattern Major Political 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 Parties PPP and PPP-led % of votes 45% 47% 42% 51% 32% 37% Alliances No. of seats 18 31 24 33 18 27 % of votes 25% 27% 18% 15% MQM NA Boycott No. of seats 13 15 12 13 % of votes 55% 28% 31% 48% 50% 48% Others No. of seats 9 2 7 13 16 21 Continued… - 13 -
Continued….. Vote Bank Urban Sindh Voting Pattern Major Political 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 Parties PPP and PPP-led % of votes 27% 18% 18% 41% 13% 18% Alliances 2 No. of seats 3 2 10 2 3 % of votes 56% 65% 48% 38% MQM NA Boycott No. of seats 13 14 12 13 % of votes 73%* 26% 17% 59% 26% 44% Others 5 No. of seats 0 0 8 2 6 Continued… - 14 -
Continued….. Vote Bank I nterior Sindh Voting Pattern Major Political Parties 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 PPP and PPP-led % of votes 51% 68% 58% 57% 42% 45% Alliances 16 No. of seats 28 22 25 16 24 % of votes 3% 3% 0% 5% MQM NA Boycott No. of seats 0 1 0 0 % of votes 49%* 29% 40% 43% 58% 49% Others 4 No. of seats 0 7 3 12 15 Continued… - 15 -
Continued….. Vote Bank SI NDH 61 Karachi City 20 Seats: 3 I nterior Sindh 41 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 Sakkur 2 Ghotki 2 Khairpur 3 Sindh Seats: 4 Seats: 2 Nawabshah 2 Naushero Feroz 2 Seats: 2 Larkana 4 Shikarpur 2 Seats: 3 Seats: 3 Jacobabad 3 Mirpur Khas 3 Seats: 2 Tharparkar 2 Sanghar 3 Seats: 3 Hyderabad 6 Badin 2 Thatha 2 Seats: 6 Seats: 3 Dadu 3 Seats: 20 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 2 NA SEATS 61 25% SINDH Population: 25% SINDH Continued… + ~~ - 16 -
Continued….. Vote Bank Balochistan Voting Pattern Major Political 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 Parties PML and PML-led % of votes 22% 21% 12% 7% NA 17% Alliances No. of seats 0 2 2 0 3 3* PPP and PPP-led % of votes 2% 7% 15% 18% NA 10% Alliances No. of seats 0 1 2 1 0 0 Religious Parties % of votes 21% 17% 19% 10% NA 19% (Primarily JUI) No. of seats 1 4 2 2 2 6 Regional Parties % of votes 45% 19% 29% 22% NA 33% (Balochistan No. of seats 3 2 3 4 2 3 % of votes 10% 35% 25% 42% NA 22% Others No. of seats 0 2 2 4 1 2 Continued… - 17 -
BALUCHI STAN 14 Continued….. Vote Bank Quetta Sub Region 6 Quetta 1 Quetta, Chagi, Matsang 1 Pishin, Ziarat 1 Seats: Loralai 1 1 Zhob, Killa Saifullah 1 Seats: Killa Abdullah 1 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 8 Kalat Mekran Sub Region 1 Seats: 2 Kohlu, Sibi, Dera Bugti 1 Nasirabad 1 Seats: 1 Kachhi 1 Kalat, Mastung 1 Seats: 1 Khuzdar 1 Awaran, Lasbela 1 Seats: 1 Seats: Panjgur, Kharan 1 1 Kech, Gwadar 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 NA SEATS 14 5% BALOCHISTAN Population: 5% BALOCHISTAN + ~~ Continued… - 18 -
Continued….. Vote Bank NW FP Voting Pattern Major Political 1970 1988 1990 1993 1997 2002 Parties PPP and PPP-led % of votes 14% 23% 23% 16% 10% 12% Alliances No. of seats 1 8 5 5 0 2* PML and PML-led % of votes 27% 27% 24% 32% 37% 18% Alliances No. of seats 7 8 8 10 15 4** PIF: 11% JUI-F: JUI-F: JUI-F: MMA: % of votes 33% MDM: 2% 8% JI Religious Parties 11% 20 % 45% IJM: 11% Boycott (Primarily JUI, JI PIF (2) and MMA in 2002) JUI-F MMA No. of seats 6 4 MDM (1) 0 (4) (29) IJM (2) % of votes 19% 18% 15% 15% 19% 9% ANP*** No. of seats 3 2 6 3 9 0 % of votes 7% 21% 18% 13% 26% 16% Others No. of seats 8 3 3 2 1 12 Continued… - 19 -
Continued….. Vote Bank NWFP 35 Peshawar (Valley Region) 13 Peshawar 4 Seats: 1 Nowshera 2 Charsadda 2 Mardan 3 Swabi 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Southern NWFP 7 Kohat 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Karak 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Bannu 1 Seats: 3 Seats: 1 Seats: 2 Hangu 1 Seats: 2 Lakki Marwat 1 Seats: 4 Seats: 2 D. I. Khan 2 Seats: 2 Seats: 1 Seats: 2 Malakand 8 Malakand 1 Seats: 1 Seats: 1 Shangla 1 Seats: 1 Swat 2 Upper Dir 1 Seats: 1 Lower Dir 1 Chitral 1 Buner 1 Seats: 2 Hazara Division 7 Abbottabad 2 NA SEATS Mansehra 2 35 Haripur 1 15% Kohistan 1 NWFP Population: 15% NWFP Batagram 1 Continued… + ~~ - 20 -
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