Twitter: @coralsncaves PP029: Paleoclimatic history of the El - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Twitter: @coralsncaves

PP029: Paleoclimatic history of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation observations, theory, modeling Tom Marchitto (CU-Boulder) Kim Cobb (Georgia Tech) Diane Thompson (Boston University)

Orbital controls on Western Pacific hydrology Kim Cobb (Georgia Tech) @coralsncaves Stacy Carolin (Oxford) Shelby Ellis (Georgia Tech) #fiercefemalefieldphoto Sang Chen (Caltech) David Lund (U. Connecticut) Nele Meckler (U. Bergen) Ian Orland (U. Wisconsin) Jess F. Adkins (Caltech) Jud W. Partin (UT-Austin) Sharon Hoffmann (UNC-Wilmington) Julien Emile-Geay (U. Southern California) Andrew A. Tuen (U. Sans Malaysia) Brian Clark, Syria Lejau, Jenny Malang (Gunung Mulu National Park) Jean Lynch-Stieglitz (Georgia Tech) Jessica Moerman (Smithsonian)

Orbital controls on Western Pacific hydrology Kim Cobb (Georgia Tech) @coralsncaves Stacy Carolin (Oxford) Shelby Ellis (Georgia Tech) #fiercefemalefieldphoto Sang Chen (Caltech) David Lund (U. Connecticut) Nele Meckler (U. Bergen) Ian Orland (U. Wisconsin) Jess F. Adkins (Caltech) Jud W. Partin (UT-Austin) Sharon Hoffmann (UNC-Wilmington) Julien Emile-Geay (U. Southern California) Andrew A. Tuen (U. Sans Malaysia) Brian Clark, Syria Lejau, Jenny Malang (Gunung Mulu National Park) Jean Lynch-Stieglitz (Georgia Tech) Jessica Moerman (Smithsonian)

“the ice cores of the tropics”

2015/16 El Niño event Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Gunung Mulu National Park dry wet

Correlation between TRMM and Mulu 18 O R(Mulu d 18 O,TRMM) A 40N 40N 20N x 0 20S 20S 40S 40S Rainfall oxygen isotopes 60E 120E 180 120W 60W at Mulu are better than -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Correlation (R) a rain gauge! Correlation between TRMM and Mulu precip C 40N 40N 20N 20N x 0 20S 20S R(Mulu precip,TRMM) 40S 40S 60E 120E 180 120W 60W Moerman et al., 2013 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Correlation (R)

Correlation between TRMM and Mulu 18 O Why? A 40N 40N 20N x 0 Rainfall isotopes 20S 20S integrate through 40S 40S space and time. 60E 120E 180 120W 60W -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Correlation (R) Correlation between TRMM and Mulu precip C 40N 40N 20N 20N x 0 20S 20S 40S 40S 60E 120E 180 120W 60W Moerman et al., 2013 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Correlation (R)

Correlation between TRMM and Mulu 18 O A 40N 40N 20N x 0 20S 20S 40% of Mulu d 18 O R 40S 40S variance controlled 60E 120E 180 120W 60W by ENSO -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Correlation (R) Correlation between TRMM and Mulu precip 20% by seasonal C 40N 40N variability 20N 20N x 0 20S 20S 40S 40S 60E 120E 180 120W 60W Moerman et al., 2013 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Correlation (R)

rainfall d 18 O average -12 over last 5 months Mulu d 18 O R -10 WF 18 O (% o ) -8 variations measured -6 drip d 18 O reflected -4 -12 -2 -10 in cave -8 18 dripwater -6 -4 d 18 O -2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 variations -10 -9 L2 18 O (% o ) -8 5-10 -7 month -10 -6 -5 -9 residence -8 times -7 18 Moerman et al., 2014; Ellis et al., in prep -6 -5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

rainfall d 18 O average -12 over last 5 months -10 WF 18 O (% o ) -8 measured -6 drip d 18 O -4 -12 -2 -10 -8 18 -6 -4 -2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -10 -(NIÑO3.4 SST) -9 L2 18 O (% o ) -8 -7 -10 -6 -5 -9 -8 -7 18 Moerman et al., 2014; Ellis et al., in prep -6 -5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Observations and Modeling of Water Isotopes in the Climate System (funded 2018-2021) Key goals Working group members: water isotopes as essential Kim Cobb (Co-Chair) – Georgia Tech ocean and climate variable? David Noone (Co-Chair) – U. Oregon Samantha Stevenson – UCSB design 21 st century obs Gabe Bowen – U. Utah network Jess Conroy – U. Illinois C-U Alyssa Atwood – UC-Berkeley, GA Tech data archive for all water Bronwen Konecky – Washington Univ. isotope obs & model data Allegra Legrande – NASA-GISS Adrianna Bailey – NCAR Jesse Nusbaumer – NASA-GISS coordinating modeling Natalie Burls – George Mason efforts à CMIP7?

“the ice cores of the tropics”

What is the sensitivity of western tropical Pacific hydroclimate to orbital forcing?

Hulu/Sanbao , Cheng et al., Nature 2016 Obliquity (°) 25 a 24 23 Eccentricity 0.05 22 b 0.03 –0.04 0.01 c Precession 0.00 0.04 MBE MIS 5.2/5.1 500 MIS 4/3 MIS 11 d –11 Insolation (W m –2 ) 460 δ 18 O (VPDB, ‰) –9 420 –7 –5 e 4 cycles 5 cycles 4 cycles 5 cycles 5 cycles 380 5 cycles ~92 kyr ~92 kyr ~93 kyr ~113 kyr ~105 kyr ~115 kyr T-II T-VI T-VIIa T-VII T-I T-III T-V T-IV T-IIIa 2 cycles 2 cycles 1 cycle 4 cycles ~47 kyr ~46 kyr ~21 kyr ~92 kyr f MIS 7.3 MIS 15.1 0 Sea level (m) –40 –80 MIS 15.2 MIS 7.4 –120 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Age (kyr BP )

Mulu stalagmite d 18 O boreal fall insolation at 0 o (W/m 2 ) more convective activity Partin et al., 2007 (0-30kybp) Carolin et al., 2016 Meckler et al., 2012 (200-550kybp) Carolin et al., 2013 (30-100kybp) Carolin et al., 2016 (100-160kybp) strong precessional signal tied to boreal fall insolation

Mulu stalagmite d 18 O boreal fall insolation at 0 o (W/m 2 ) more convective activity Partin et al., 2007 (0-30kybp) Carolin et al., 2016 Meckler et al., 2012 (200-550kybp) Carolin et al., 2013 (30-100kybp) Carolin et al., 2016 (100-160kybp) clear influence of glacial boundary conditions

Mulu stalagmite d 18 O boreal fall insolation at 0 o (W/m 2 ) more convective activity Partin et al., 2007 (0-30kybp) Carolin et al., 2016 Meckler et al., 2012 (200-550kybp) Carolin et al., 2013 (30-100kybp) Carolin et al., 2016 (100-160kybp) clear influence of glacial boundary conditions ( d 18 O sw +/- Sunda Shelf +/- temp +/- D ENSO, ENSO-like)

What dynamical processes underlie the strong response of Borneo stalagmite d 18 O to boreal fall insolation?

Our Holocene Playground Stalagmite BA03 -10.5 445 70-150 μ m/yr (a) 30-60 μ m sampling = -10.0 440 2-5 samples/yr -9.5 435 Equator SON insolation (W/m 2 ) -9.0 430 high-resolution -8.5 425 sampling intervals δ 18 -8.0 420 -7.5 415 -7.0 410 Chen et al., -9.5 485 -6.0 450 EPSL 2016 -6.5 405 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Age (yr BP) ������������������ ��������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������������������������� � ���������������� ������������������ ��������������������������������� ��������������������������������������������������������������� � ����������������

-10.0 -9.8 -9.6 -9.4 -9.2 -9.0 2.5kybp 3.3kybp 5.2kybp -8.8 δ 18 -8.6 -8.4 2390 2410 2430 2450 2470 2490 2510 2530 2550 2570 2590 3240 3260 3280 3300 3320 3340 3360 3380 5170 5190 5210 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) 0.20 0.15 0.10 2-7yr filtered δ 18 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -10.0 8.2kybp 2390 2410 2430 2450 2470 2490 2510 2530 2550 2570 2590 3240 3260 3280 3300 3320 3340 3360 3380 5170 5190 5210 -9.8 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) -9.6 -9.4 sub-annually -9.2 -9.0 δ 18 -8.8 resolved 5.7kybp 6.7kybp -8.6 -8.4 stalagmite d 18 O 5640 5660 5680 5700 6590 6610 6630 6650 6670 6690 6710 6730 8140 8160 8180 8200 8220 8240 8260 8280 8300 2390 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) records, 0.20 0.15 50-200yrs long 0.10 2-7yr filtered δ 18 0.05 0 -0.05 Chen et al,. 2016 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 5640 5660 5680 5700 6590 6610 6630 6650 6670 6690 6710 6730 8140 8160 8180 8200 8220 8240 8260 8280 8300 2390 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP)

-10.0 -9.8 -9.6 -9.4 -9.2 -9.0 2.5kybp 3.3kybp 5.2kybp -8.8 δ 18 -8.6 -8.4 2390 2410 2430 2450 2470 2490 2510 2530 2550 2570 2590 3240 3260 3280 3300 3320 3340 3360 3380 5170 5190 5210 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) 0.20 0.15 0.10 2-7yr filtered δ 18 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -10.0 8.2kybp 2390 2410 2430 2450 2470 2490 2510 2530 2550 2570 2590 3240 3260 3280 3300 3320 3340 3360 3380 5170 5190 5210 -9.8 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) -9.6 -9.4 sub-annually -9.2 -9.0 δ 18 -8.8 resolved 5.7kybp 6.7kybp -8.6 -8.4 stalagmite d 18 O 5640 5660 5680 5700 6590 6610 6630 6650 6670 6690 6710 6730 8140 8160 8180 8200 8220 8240 8260 8280 8300 2390 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) records, 0.20 0.15 50-200yrs long 0.10 2-7yr filtered δ 18 0.05 0 -0.05 Chen et al,. 2016 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 5640 5660 5680 5700 6590 6610 6630 6650 6670 6690 6710 6730 8140 8160 8180 8200 8220 8240 8260 8280 8300 2390 Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP) Age (yr BP)