Rethinking the Classic Social Trust Question Wording Anna Brown Research Associate Juliana Horowitz Associate Director, Research
The Question Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in dealing with people? July 10, 2019 2
Reach • General Social Survey • Pew Research Center • National Bureau of Economic Research • Associated Press • Harvard University • Gallup • The Washington Post • International Monetary Fund • The Atlantic The New York Times • July 10, 2019 3
International Comparisons July 10, 2019 4
The Trend 80 % You can't be too careful in dealing with people 64 62 61 60 60 59 58 58 57 57 56 56 60 55 53 52 45 40 43 42 42 38 37 36 36 36 36 35 33 32 32 32 Most people can be trusted 20 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2018 July 10, 2019 5
Motivation Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in dealing with people? • Not mutually exclusive What concept is it really measuring? Trust or caution? • Who are “most people”? • Trust them with what? • • Trust them how much? • Are different demographic groups answering in different ways? July 10, 2019 6
Experiment Methodology • Respondents were randomly assigned to one of the question variations (about n=1,250 for each question) • Embedded in Wave 32 of American Trends Panel Conducted Feb. 26-Mar. 11, 2018 among 6,251 U.S. adults • Nationally representative online survey • • Margin of error of plus/minus 1.9 percentage points for total sample July 10, 2019 7
The Experiment (Randomized response options) (Randomized response options) July 10, 2019 8
The Experiment (Randomized 0 comes first/ 10 comes first) July 10, 2019 9
Generally speaking, would you say that … You can't be too careful in dealing Most people can be trusted with people 36 64 July 10, 2019 10
Generally speaking, would you say that ... Most people can be trusted Most people cannot be trusted 57 43 July 10, 2019 11
Generally speaking, would you say that ... Most people can be trusted to do Most people cannot be trusted to do the right thing the right thing 57 42 July 10, 2019 12
Generally speaking, would you say you can trust most people ... Net 62% Net 38% A great deal A fair amount Not too much Not at all 6 56 32 6 July 10, 2019 13
Think of a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 means you think most people can’t be trusted at all and 10 means you think most people can be trusted completely. Where would you place yourself? On a scale of 0 to 10, I think most people… 0-3 7-10 (Can’t be 4-6 (Can be trusted completely) trusted at all) 41 42 17 Mean: 5.73 Median: 6.00 July 10, 2019 14
Findings % saying … Can trust most people 62 a great deal/fair amount Most people can be trusted 57 (vs. most people cannot be trusted) Most people can be trusted to do 57 the right thing 54 6-10 on 0-10 trust scale 41 7-10 on 0-10 trust scale Most people can be trusted 36 (vs. can't be too careful) July 10, 2019 15
Findings % of men/women saying … Men Women 42 Most people can be trusted (vs. can't be too careful) 31 57 Most people can be trusted (vs. most people cannot be trusted) 56 July 10, 2019 16
Findings % of whites/nonwhites saying … White Nonwhite 42 Most people can be trusted (vs. can't be too careful) 25 63 Most people can be trusted (vs. most people cannot be trusted) 44 July 10, 2019 17
Findings • Older, more educated and higher income respondents tend to be more trusting – regardless of question wording • No notable differences by political party July 10, 2019 18
Validity July 10, 2019 19
Validity Correlat atio ion n coeffici icien ent t w/ trust t Experime eriment ntal al condition dition in neighb hbor or Most people can be trusted to do the right thing .287 Can trust most people a great deal/fair .281 amount/not too much/not at all 0-10 trust scale .207 Most people can be trusted (vs. can't be too .166 careful) Most people can be trusted (vs. most people .106 cannot be trusted) July 10, 2019 20
Going Forward • Results suggest the classic question wording may conflate trust and caution • The other 4 questions perform better on some measures, though the scales can be difficult to interpret Still, there is always value in the trend • July 10, 2019 21
Anna Brown Research Associate abrown@pewresearch.org 22 July 10, 2019
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