TRIATHLON April 2014 Fund objective Outperform benchmark: 90% - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRIATHLON April 2014

Fund objective Outperform benchmark: 90% SWIX Top 40 10% Cash Constraints: max 95% in equities no listed property no foreign

Fund performance vs benchmark – since inception (all costs included) 170 Fund Performance benchmark 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14

Equity component vs benchmark – since inception 200 Equity component SWIX Top 40 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14

Just the numbers since inception Equity FUND PFM Benchmark Index component* Annual return 20.64% 19.74% 27.03% 21.37% Risk - annualised 10.16% 10.76% 11.65% 11.96% Value added vs benchmark / index 0.75% 6.09% Risk of taking active positions 4.24% 3.74% Reward as a % of the risk taken 0.20 1.60 Cash return 5.41% 1.90 Drawdown risk -4.45% -4.52% -4.45% -5.06% * Gross of costs

Peer Group comparison 180 Triathlon Fund Electus 170 Rainmaker Investec AG Equity Coro Equity Cannon 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14

Equity component vs peer group 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Triathlon Equity component Electus Rainmaker Investec AG Equity Coro Equity Cannon

Attribution what we got right – since inception % Gain 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 / loss CORONAT +500% - 31% IMPALA PLATINUM +109% ADAPTIT HLDS LTD EOH +169% TELKOM +78% +168% PINNACLE -34% ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI +76% IMPERIAL -23% AMPLATS +175% WOOLIES

Attribution and what we got wrong – since inception % Gain / loss -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 -16% AVENG +19% AFRICAN RAINBOW +36% BHPBILL +127% SANLAM +28% WBH OVCON LTD -61% GFIELDS -14% EXXARO +139% STEINHOFF -40% ABIL +209% NASPERS -N

Current positioning Anchor tenants % Satellite tenants Total Rand hedge Sasol, Billiton, Mondi, Steinhoff, BAT 25% Glencore, Lonmin 4% 28% Technology Naspers, EOH 10% AdptIt 5% 15% Financial Old Mutual, FNB 6% Coronation, Investec 8% 14% HealthCare Aspen, Medi Clinic 6% 8% Autonomous Richemont, SAB 6% Remgro, Zeder 8% 14% Consumer FamBrands, Mr Price, Woolies 12% 0% 10% 65% 25% 90% Cash 10%

Macro environment

Focus on 2014 7 really difficult questions What is the link between QE and economic growth? Is economic growth in the major regions improving ? Will this result in inflation in the us and elsewhere? Will this occur in 2014 leading to a sharp rise in bond yields? And will the fed fall behind in adjusting policy? What have bond and equity markets priced in? What have currency markets priced?

QE - 101

Global trade headwinds abating

Inflation in 2014 in the US not a major problem during 2014

Why ? wages have fallen, productivity is up

Tapering in 2014 unpacking the “real” issue Taper - impact on treasury curve 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 30yr

Tightening market expectations based on Fed guidance

Eurozone Inflation

SA Inc soft patch or structural headwinds?

SA Growth where will it come from?

ZAR Respite pickup in external growth should result in firmer rand during H2:2014

US Equity still interesting

SA Equity running a little ahead of earnings? 50000 506 45000 456 40000 406 35000 356 30000 306 25000 256 20000 206 15000 156 10000 106 5000 56 0 6 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 ALSI (LHS) ALSI Earnings Base (RHS)

SA Equity it would appear so 20 50 40 18 30 16 20 10 14 0 12 -10 -20 10 -30 8 -40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 ALSI P:E (LHS) ALSI Earnings %Ch YoY Lag 13m (RHS)

To Sum Up what is the link between QE and economic growth? three parts: rescue banks, suppress yield curve, sustain growth is economic growth in the major regions improving ? yes, but with the surprise being less growth than expected will this result in inflation in the US and elsewhere? not in the US, maybe in Japan & Germany, no in southern Europe will this occur in 2014 leading to a sharp rise in bond yields? unlikely as deflationary pressures persist in the US – CPI could fall and will the Fed fall behind in adjusting policy? possibly, but this will be driven by the markets perception of inflation based on the improvement in macro-economic data

To Sum Up what have bond and equity markets priced in? us 10 yr looks fairly priced us tips overpriced us equities fair value with better earnings in prospect sa equities on demanding rating most likely changes for the next quarter / six months: further rotate out of mining and rand hedge back into consumer stocks (very non-consensus call)

Thank you for your time

Regulatory information Vunani Fund Managers (Pty) Ltd MI-PLAN (Pty) Ltd Physical Address: 6 th Floor, Letterstedt House 6 th Floor, Letterstedt House Newlands on Main Newlands on Main Newlands Newlands 7700 7700 Telephone number: 021 670 4900 021 671 1650 Internet website: www.vunanifm.co.za www.mi-plan.co.za Vunani Fund Managers (Pty) Ltd and MI-PLAN (Pty) Ltd are authorised financial services provider (license no. 608 & 9383) approved by the Registrar of Financial Services Providers (www.fsb.co.za) to provide intermediary services and advice in terms of the Financial Advisors and Intermediary services Act 37 of 2002. Market fluctuations and changes in rates of exchange or taxation may have an effect on the value, price or income of investments. Since the performance of financial markets fluctuate, an investor may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future investment performance. All returns are rand returns, unless otherwise stated. Investment deals done on behalf of clients by Vunani Fund Managers are all done on an arm’s length basis . Vunani Fund Managers (Pty) Ltd has been GIPS verified for the periods 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2013. A copy of the verification report is available on request.