Trends and Opportunities City Manager Presentation December 4, 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Trends and Opportunities City Manager Presentation December 4, 2018 1

Multiple Planning Efforts Have Updated and Informed the Adopted Master Plan 2 2

Major Planning Efforts in Grand Rapids • 2002 City Comprehensive Master Plan (2,500 + people) • 2012 Green Grand Rapids (1,800 + people) • 2015 GR Forward and River Corridor Plan (4,400 + people) 3

Broad Themes of Envisioning Grand Rapids as: • Growing, vibrant, livable and welcoming • Healthy, safe, talented and educated • Diverse economic industries with wealth creation • Equitable and affordable • Arts, culture, recreation and entertainment • Environmentally sustainable • Mobile, connected and compacted • Public/Private partnerships (Ecosystem and not “Ego” system) • Excellent public service that is fiscally responsible • Innovation and technology leader 4

Trends 5

Grand Rapids Estimated Population Growth Year Population Growth Rate 2011 189,008 2012 190,617 0.85% 2013 192,725 1.11% 2014 194,054 0.69% 2015 194,847 0.41% 6 Year Average 2016 196,251 0.72% Growth Rate 2017 198,829 1.31% 0.85% Est. 2018 200,516 0.85% Est. 2019 202,217 0.85% Est. 2020 203,932 0.85% Est. 2025 212,581 0.85% Est. 2030 221,598 0.85% Est. 2040 240,395 0.85% Source – World Population Review with staff estimates for 2018 and beyond 6

Grand Rapids W-2 Growth Tax Year Number of W-2's Growth Rate 2011 279,818 2012 229,901 -18% 2013 241,487 5% 2014 258,441 7% 6 Year Average 2015 264,037 2% Growth Rate of 2016 265,932 1% 0.61% 2017 283,360 7% *Est 2018 285,087 0.61% *Source- Estimate for 2018 is based on the 2011-2017 growth rate in W-2 filings. 7

Grand Rapids Estimated Housing Growth Grand Rapids Housing Unit Projections Year Housing Units Growth Rate 2011 81,575 2012 81,678 0.13% 2013 82,000 0.39% 2014 82,318 0.39% 2015 82,779 0.56% 2016 82,936 0.19% 2017 83,745 0.98% Est 2018 85,121 1.64% Est 2019 86,177 1.24% 6 Year Est 2020 86,539 0.42% Average Est 2021 86,900 0.42% Growth Rate Est 2022 87,262 0.42% of 0.41% Est 2023 87,624 0.41% Est 2024 87,985 0.41% Est 2025 88,347 0.41% Source- Grand Rapids Planning Department 8

Comparative 6 Year Average Growth Rates Population growth .85% Housing growth .41% W-2 growth .61% 9

Development Center Grand Rapids Housing Unit Projections The graph below illustrates the trend in total City housing units since the 2010 U.S. Census. The Census Bureau’s estimate is based upon data collected through City reporting, the American Community Survey, and other sources. The red line shows the Zimmerman/Volk “Housing Demand” report from 2015 which indicated that the City should add 5,705 to 7,615 new housing units in the next five years and that demand for affordable/workforce units could be between 1,575 and 2,080 of that amount. The middle line depicts 81,595 housing units (2010 Census) plus the annual net addition of housing units constructed and demolished from 2011 through 2018. Trends beyond 2018 are based on consistent growth of 362 units per year (average for 2012-16 period). Grand Rapids Housing Unit Projections 92,000 89,439 90,000 88,000 86,000 Housing Units 86,539 82,779 84,000 81,595 82,000 80,000 78,000 76,000 74,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Census-Est (through 2016) Census (2011) plus GR-Net Completed (2011-2018) Census (2011) plus GR-Net Projected (2019-2025) GR-Construction (2015) plus Z-V Avg. Estimate (2016-2020) 10

Modeling Supply and Demand S3 P3 Q3 11

Fund Balance- Reserve Level Fund Balance as a % of GOF Expenditures 25.00% 22.50% 20.50% 20.00% 16.90% General Fund 15.00% Unassigned FB% 12.50% 12.20% 11.70% 11.60% 10.70% 10.60% Budget Stabilization 10.00% 10.10% 9.70% FB% 7.20% 7.20% 5.00% 5.00% 3.10% 0.00% FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 12

Unemployment Rate- October 2018 National 3.7% Michigan 3.9% Grand Rapids 3.2% 13

City of Grand Rapids Internal Workforce Turnover Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percentage Turnover 14

Source: American Community Survey 5-year tables (2012-2016) 15

An Equity Profile of Grand Rapids Supported by: Insert Map 16

40 Economic Vitality People of color have higher unemployment rates regardless of education level In general, unemployment decreases as People of color have higher unemployment rates than Whites Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity, 2014 educational attainment increases. But people All of color face higher rates of joblessness at all White education levels compared to their White People of Color counterparts. The largest gaps are among those with some college, but no degree: people of color are more than twice as likely to be unemployed than their White peers. 30% 26% 25% 25% 21% 18% 20% 16% 15% 13% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5% 5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.8% 0% Less than a HS Diploma, Some College, AA Degree, BA Degree HS Diploma no College no Degree no BA or higher Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes the civilian noninstitutional labor force ages 25 through 64. Note: Data represent a 2010 through 2014 average. Data for some racial/ethnic groups are excluded due to small samplesize. 17

An Equity Profile of Grand Rapids PolicyLink andPERE 35 Economic Vitality The middle class is beginning to shrink Although the city’s middle class has stayed The share of middle-class households is beginning to shrink Households by Income Level, 1979 and 2014 relatively stable since 1979, it is beginningto shrink. Since 1999, the share of both upper- and middle-income households has declined. The share of lower-income households in Grand Rapids has grown to 34 percent. 29% In this analysis, middle-income households 30% Upper are defined as having incomes in the middle 40 percent of household income distribution. $64,712 $71,494 In 1979, those household incomes ranged from $29,299 to $71,494. To assess change in the middle class and the other income ranges, 38% Middle we calculated what the income range would 40% be today if incomes had increased at the same rate as average household income growth. $26,519 Today’s middle-class incomes would be $29,299 $26,519 to $64,712, and 38 percent of households fall within that range. Lower 34% 30% 1979 1989 1999 2014 Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes all households (no group quarters). Note: Data for 2014 represents a 2010 through 2014 average. Dollar values are in 2014 dollars. 18

An Equity Profile of Grand Rapids PolicyLink andPERE 38 Economic Vitality High rates of poverty and working poor among Black residents Working poverty is highest for Latinos Poverty is highest for African Americans, Latinos, Latino, Black, and mixed/other race residents and those of Mixed/other race of Grand Rapids experience poverty at rates Working Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Poverty Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 that are about three times as high as their All All White peers. White White Black Black Latino Latino The same is true for working poverty. Latinos Asian or Pacific Islander Mixed/other have the highest rate of working poverty, at 26 percent, followed by African American 60% 30% residents at 15 percent. 26% 47.3% 46.5% 45% 40% 20% 15% 27% 12% 20% 10% 8% 15% 5% 0% 0% Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes the civilian Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Universe includes all persons noninstitutional population ages 25 through 64 not in groupquarters. not in group quarters. Note: Data represent a 2010 through 2014 average. 19 Note: Data represent a 2010 through 2014 average.

Opportunities 20

As We Consider Strategy and Budget Development: • How might we maintain a resilient and vibrant economy for business? • How might we break the cycle of poverty and address the disparities in social outcomes so all residents experience economic mobility and affordability? • How might we ensure the safety of all residents in partnership with community and other organizations? • How might we have an effective multimodal transportation system and other infrastructure that can meet the demands of the region in an environmentally responsible and sustainable way? • How might we promote diverse art, civic, cultural venues, and events that add to the quality of life and vibrancy of the community? • How might we ensure government services are appropriately equipped with talent, technology and resources to deliver reliable and innovative outcomes? 21

Strategic Considerations • Describe aspirational vision • Set broad policy priorities but be clear on outcomes • Data-driven evaluation/metrics to determine effectiveness and accountability 22