Trends and futures Planning for complexity
We’re going to talk about… • GOALS FOR PEI Divergence Complexity Goals • TRENDS IMPACTING EDUCATION The Anatomy of a Trend OECD Trends Report Our Trends • FUTURES THINKING What is it for? DeSchooling Wrap Up
You’re going to be asked to… • CHOOSE YOUR QUESTION Talk about complex issues Choose your question about the future of PEI • TALK ABOUT TRENDS Talk about a number of trends Think about new trends Think about how those trends impact your question • BUILD A FUTURE Work on a possible (not really possible) future Think about how that future answers affects your question Share your notes with us
Part 1 Divergence Complexity Goals http://www.flickr.com/photos/marcobellucci/3534516458/
It’s the future!
Learning is complex
There aren’t simple answers
Today we are not looking to agree. We are diverging.
We haven’t always done learning for the same reasons anyway…
Rome to Rhodes, 62BCE
Charlemagne, circa 800 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne#/media/File:Aachen_Domschatz_Buest e1.jpg
Schooling for control,1229 “Those who wish to scrutinize the bosom of nature to the inmost can hear [at the University of Toulouse] the books of Aristotle which were forbidden at Paris.” - University of Tolouse flyer, 1229, (Translated by Lynn Thorndike)
Johann Heinrich Pestalozzi teaches Switzerland to read, 1798 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/Jo hann_Heinrich_Pestalozzi.jpg
Schooling for Basics “I assert definitely, that a school -book is only good when an uninstructed schoolmaster can use it at need, [almost as well as an instructed and talented one].” - Pestalozzi, 1801, How Gertrude Teaches her Children
Formalized Schooling for Basics BIRMINGHAM STANDARD IV Reading – A few lines of poetry or prose, at the choice of the inspector. Writing – A sentence slowly dictated once, by a few words at a time, from a reading book, such as is used in the first class of the school. Arithmetic – Compound rules (common weights and measures). - Report of the Federal Security Agency, US Office of Education 1876, p CLXII
What was ‘the goal’ ?
Success was finishing.
What is our school for now?
Think/Pair/Share What is our current school system for? 1. Take 3 minutes. Think about the question 2. Find a partner. Tell them your thoughts. Listen to their thoughts 3. Find points of ‘divergence’ 4. Share at your table 5. KEEP NOTES!!!
3 Categories of challenges you might want to address with learning
SIMPLE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tojosan/17675 9844
Simple Challenges 1. Only one answer needed 2. That answer always works 3. Google search solutions 4. Great muffins every time
COMPLICATED
Complicated Challenges 1. Sometimes more than one solution is possible 2. Requires subject matter expertise 3. Often many steps 4. As with the airplane, often super important you get the steps right
COMPLEX
Complex Challenges 1. Does not have a solution 2. Can only work on part of the problem 3. Iteration is key 4. Love is not the same for everyone
Complicated or Complex?
Complicated/complex Landing on the moon?
Complicated/complex Landing on the moon?
Complicated/complex Climate change?
Complicated/complex Climate change?
Complicated/complex Video games?
Complicated/complex Video games?
Complicated/complex Raising kids?
Complicated/complex Raising kids?
Complexity leads to contradictions ( and that’s ok ) For students, key themes included homework and the balance with extra- curricular; the desire for engaging and interesting learning ; the desire for more consistency in program delivery and assessment practices across the province; and mental health and addictions issues. Pat Campbell - retrieved from minutes of second Learning Partners Advisory Council meeting section 3a
Think/Pair/Share What complex issues could learning help address in PEI? 1. Take 3 minutes. Think about the question 2. Find a partner. Tell them your thoughts. Listen to their thoughts 3. Find points of ‘divergence’ 4. Share at your table 5. KEEP NOTES!!!
What are other folks trying to change?
Building a Knowledge Based Society in BC It can improve health and education services, create jobs, generate economic growth, and improve government efficiency http://www.gov.bc.ca/premier/technology_council/
Reggio Emilia The program is based on the principles of respect, responsibility, and community through exploration and discovery in a supportive and enriching environment based on the interests of the children through a self-guided curriculum.
What could learning be FOR on PEI?
Part 2 Trends OECD Our Trends http://www.flickr.com/photos/marcobellucci/3534516458/
Which ‘ Trend ’ are we talking about? 1. a general direction in which something is developing or changing. synonyms: tendency, movement, drift, swing, shift, course, current, direction, progression, inclination, leaning; 2. a fashion. synonyms: fashion, vogue, style, mode, craze, mania, rage;
OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Demographic factors Fewer children
Demographic factors People on the move
A final comment on complexity School challenges: Enrolment vs. Diversity
Questions for discussion • How does this impact the people of PEI’s perspective on schools and learning? • How does this impact what school and learning is for? • What other kinds/organizations of learning are impacted by this? • How does this impact the governance of education and learning? • Who is a teacher for this trend? What do they need to do?
Discussion More trends? More data needed?
Income and fiscal factors Increasing affluence, increasing disparities
Income and fiscal factors Fiscal trends • Strong growth in education and early learning spending 2007-2012 as enrolment fell • Followed by restraint and retrenchment since 2012 • Continuing demand pressures from the health system will crowd future education spending
Discussion More trends? More data needed?
Health and Wellbeing Thriving Communities, Engaged Citizens Volunteering Voter turn out Sense of community
Health and Wellbeing A Helping Hand for Families
Health and Wellbeing Islander health and wellbeing Islanders ’ status on most indicators of health and wellbeing lag the national average and many are deteriorating. It has long been recognized that these outcomes are significantly influenced by the social determinants of health, and the Report places particular emphasis on income disparities as a key factor. 2016 Report of the Chief Public Health Officer Promote, Prevent, Protect: Health for All Islanders
Health and Wellbeing Keeping Children Safe and Sound
Discussion More trends? More data needed?
Internet Society and Self Constant connectivity, Access to content, Analytics
Internet Society and Self We’re behind the rest of Canada… but improving
Internet Society and Self Looking a little deeper into the data
Discussion More trends? More data needed?
Trends in schooling Pasi Sahlberg Standardization of education • Focus on core subjects in school • The search for low-risk ways to reach • learning goals Use of corporate management models • Adoption of test-based accountability • policies for schools http://pasisahlberg.com/global-educational-reform-movement-is-here/
Discussion More trends? More data needed?
Part 3 FutureS UnSchooling Wrap up http://www.flickr.com/photos/marcobellucci/3534516458/
Futures Thinking Not Predicting the Future
to illuminate unexpected implications of present-day issues; http://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics
the dilemma at the heart of ALL strategic thinking the future can't be predicted, yet we have to make choices based on what is to come
According to OECD Futures are: internally consistent and coherent descriptions of hypothetical futures, reflecting specific perspectives on past, present , and future developments”.
Ask the Question
Scan the World
Map the Possibilities
Ask the Question Again
What could learning be FOR on PEI?
Scenario Description (round 1) Live typing
Scenario Impact (round 2) World Café discussion • Attitudes, Expectations, Political Support • Goals, Functions, Equity • Organizations and Structures • The Geo-Political Dimension • The Teaching Force
Scenario Outcomes (round 3) Live typing
What could learning be FOR in this particular future? •
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