transboundary calculations for follow-up Bo Gustafsson - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Some basics of nutrient ceilings and transboundary calculations for follow-up Bo Gustafsson bo.gustafsson@su.se www.balticnest.org

The “Country - basin” catchments • Inputs are primarily assigned to the country doing the monitoring (owning the river mouth) • Major rivers carry nutrients from upstream countries (transboundary inputs) Reduction requirements are shared with the countries upstream

How to compute national (net) inputs to the Baltic Sea waterborne Transboundary Transboundary via airborne from upstream downstream country country

“ ” “B ” “ ” “ ” Transboundary waterborne reference data ö “ ” From Via To Border Retention To Baltic Share of input TN TP TN TP TN TP TN TP tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes (%) (%) From non-Contracting Parties: Czech Poland BAP 5,700 410 0.4 0.28 3,420 295 1.1 1.7 Belarus Lithuania BAP 13,600 914 0.54 0.53 6,256 430 2.1 2.5 Ukraine Poland BAP 4,124 127 0.4 0.28 2,474 91 0.8 0.5 Belarus Poland BAP 5,071 331 0.4 0.28 3,043 238 1.0 1.4 Total BAP 15,193 1,055 5.1 6.1 Belarus Latvia GUR 8,532 1,360 0.27 0.32 6,228 925 7.9 41.4 Between Contracting Parties Lithuania Latvia BAP 5,516 158 0.39 0.58 3,365 66 1.1 0.4 Poland Russia BAP 4,400 320 0.30 0.37 3,080 202 1.0 1.2 Germany Poland BAP 2.337 101 0.8 0.6 Total BAP 8,782 369 3.0 2.1 Lithuania Latvia GUR 7,185 282 0,27 0,32 5,245 192 6.7 8.6 Russia Latvia GUR 4,256 734 0,54 0,71 1,957 215 2.5 9.6 Total GUR 7,202 407 9.2 18.2 Finland Russia GUF 0.48 0.82 5,353 49 5.2 0.7

Nitrogen CART Since expected reductions from shipping and Gothenburg protocol also would be expected in basins without reduction requirements, burden will be less on CPs to these basins BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK -5 -50 2136 42 -7 -1725 708 1099 EE -2 -18 382 1419 -253 -1 0 1528 FI -692 -1642 424 2603 -5 -4 2 687 DE -16 -176 7419 165 -28 -1250 79 6193 LV -1 -15 1645 23 -1045 -1 1 606 LT -2 -27 8935 33 -112 -3 1 8824 PL -13 -155 43436 147 -26 -64 27 43352 RU -14 -86 2498 7879 -49 -10 4 10222 SE -354 -1848 8356 63 -9 -354 826 6680 OC 809 2848 14725 1486 1209 2751 2511 26339 SS 289 1169 5735 592 449 661 602 9496 BY 0 0 1977 0 -123 0 0 1854 CZ 0 0 727 0 0 0 0 727 UA 0 0 526 0 0 0 0 526 Sum 0 0 98921 14452 0 0 4761 118134

Phosphorus CART BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 38 EE 0 0 15 268 38 0 0 321 FI 0 0 0 364 0 0 0 364 DE 0 0 175 0 0 0 0 175 LV 0 0 129 0 86 0 0 215 LT 0 0 1441 0 26 0 0 1467 PL 0 0 7477 0 0 0 0 7477 RU 0 0 481 3277 30 0 0 3788 SE 0 0 535 0 0 0 0 535 OC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BY 0 0 424 0 128 0 0 552 CZ 0 0 187 0 0 0 0 187 UA 0 0 58 0 0 0 0 58 Sum 0 0 10960 3909 308 0 0 15177

Definition of nutrient input ceiling Net inputs as defined by the PLC 5.5 reference data set

Nitrogen ceilings BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK 231 904 7910 334 381 30313 29319 69392 EE 95 317 1413 11265 13029 18 20 26156 FI 35081 29619 1569 20653 255 64 77 87318 DE 817 3170 27473 1312 1465 21957 3285 59480 LV 63 273 6091 183 53898 24 25 60558 LT 110 491 33093 261 5795 54 60 39864 PL 644 2802 160857 1166 1361 1125 1106 169062 RU 710 1551 9253 62522 2516 174 174 76900 SE 17924 33350 30942 502 449 6224 34206 123597 OC 1876 6603 33002 3455 2804 5880 5579 59199 SS 72 292 1434 147 112 165 149 2372 BY 0 0 7322 0 6352 0 0 13673 CZ 0 0 2693 0 0 0 0 2693 UA 0 0 1948 0 0 0 0 1948 Sum 57622 79372 325001 101800 88418 65998 74001 792212

Phosphorus ceilings BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK 0 0 21 0 0 1040 829 1890 EE 0 0 8 236 239 0 0 483 FI 1668 1255 0 322 0 0 0 3245 DE 0 0 101 0 0 351 0 451 LV 0 0 74 0 541 0 0 615 LT 0 0 831 0 166 0 0 996 PL 0 0 4309 0 0 0 0 4309 RU 0 0 277 2892 185 0 0 3354 SE 826 1125 308 0 0 105 740 3104 OC 181 394 1046 150 93 105 118 2087 SS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BY 0 0 244 0 797 0 0 1041 CZ 0 0 108 0 0 0 0 108 UA 0 0 33 0 0 0 0 33 Sum 2675 2773 7360 3600 2020 1601 1687 21717

CART and Nutrient Ceilings are decided and should not be changed!

Waterborne transboundary inputs The transboundary input (to the Baltic) is given by the observed input at the border between a and b, reduced by the retention in country b Three possibilities for a subsequent period: Case 1: No data at all on waterborne transboundary inputs Case 2: Data available on the border for the period Case 3: Data available on the border as well as on retention

Case 1: no data available Assume that transboundary inputs change in proportion to the total waterborne input from the country-basin catchment NB! It is important to notice that when estimating the transboundary contributions in the CART follow-up, a time-series are constructed using the updated data set and in order to maintain the transboundary contributions in the reference period, the average inputs 1997-2003 of the updated data set was used in the share calculations .

Case 2: Data available on border inputs Use the same retention as for the reference period

Case 3: Data available on both border inputs and retention Use the new values to calculate the transboundary inputs

Example 1: Evaluating P in Gulf of Riga Calculation of Ceiling NW� NA� NB� R� Sum� NT� NL� CART� NC� � EE� 277� � � � � 277� 38� 239� LV� 1959� � � � -1332� 627� 86� 541� LT� � � 282� 0.32� 192� 192� 26� 166� RU� � � 734� 0.71� 215� 215� 30� 185� BY� � � 1360� 0.32� 925� 925� 128� 797� Other� � 93� � � � 93� � 93� � Table� 1:� Summary� of� various� terms� in� the� phosphorus� inputs� to� the� Gulf� of� Riga� in� the� reference� period� 1997-2003� according� to� the� original� PLC5.5� data� set.�

Transboundary inputs 2010-12

Progress NW� NA� Sum� NT� NL� NC� � EE� 183� � � 183� 239� LV� 2065� � -1389� 676� 541� LT� � � 200� 200� 166� RU� � � 224� 224� 185� BY� � � 965� 965� 797� Other� � 93� � 93� 93� Table� 2:� Calculation� of� the� national� inputs� to� Gulf� of� Riga� in� the� 2010-2012� period.�

Example 2: New data on border inputs, GR - phosphorus ● As Example 1, but ● Assume that new data show that: NB LT,LV,GR = 200 t/yr in the 2010-2012 period ● Leading to: ● Still NW LV,GR = 2065 t/yr therefore the remaining input, 2065 – 136 = 1929 t/yr needs to be attributed to the other countries (LV, BY and RU)

Example 2: continued ● Logical in this case is that transboundary inputs from BY and RU are assumed to be same as in Example 1, and LV inputs are adjusted NW� NA� Sum� NT� NL� NC� � EE� 183� � � 183� 239� LV� 2065� � -1325� 740� 541� LT� � � 136� 136� 166� RU� � � 224� 224� 185� BY� � � 965� 965� 797� Other� � 93� � 93� 93� �

Example 3: calculation of national (net) inputs of P from Lithuania to Baltic proper ● In CART calculation: ● Waterborne inputs (1997-03 and 2010-12): ● Transboundary inputs 2010-12: ● Net inputs 2010-12: