Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Restoration of a - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Subject to Climate Change— a Stochastic Dynamic Investment Game by Robert McKelvey University of Montana, USA and and Peter Golubtsov, Moscow University, Russia

EEZs in the Western and Central Pacific EEZs in the Western and Central Pacific EEZs = Extended Economic Zones of Coastal States

Single season - stock dynamics Single season - stock dynamics Climatic fluctuations affect stock distribution across 3 areas: 2 coastal EEZs (  and  )  ) ( & one high seas area (  )

Players’ Current Goals Players’ Current Goals

The Players and their In ‐ Season Actions The Players and their In ‐ Season Actions

Single Season of the Dynamic Game Single Season of the Dynamic Game A Three-Stage subgame-perfect Nash Equilibrium (NE) Actions Actions Players Players Analysis Analysis RFMO   Sites   Fleets Fleets

Buyout with External Investments Buyout with External Investments Fleets Fleets yoffs 250 12 12 Sites Sites ars al Payoffs in Current Dollars Sites Sites tive Discounted Future Payo Total Industry 200 Investor 10 8 150 6 100 Annual P Cumulative 4 4 50 2 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Season Season llars 30 30 0.5 0.5 per Effort Unit in Current Dolla 12 0 25 tment in Current Dollars −0.5 bt in Current Dollars 10 −1 20 8 −1.5 15 −2 6 Annual Payoff pe Investm Debt 10 10 −2.5 −2.5 4 −3 5 2 −3.5 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Season Season Season 0.5 60 60 0.4 50 Stock Level R Total Effort E 40 0.3 30 0.2 T S 20 0.1 10 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Season Season

Buyout without External Investments Buyout without External Investments Fleets Fleets 12 ayoffs Sites Sites Sites Sites lars tive Discounted Future Pay 250 250 al Payoffs in Current Dollar Total Industry 10 Investor 200 8 150 6 100 4 Annual Cumulativ 50 2 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Season Season t Dollars 0 16 16 per Effort Unit in Current D −0.2 tment in Current Dollars 14 −0.4 12 10 −0.6 8 −0.8 Annual Payoff pe 6 6 Investm −1 4 2 −1.2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Season Season 0.5 0.5 60 0.4 50 Stock Level R Total Effort E 40 0.3 30 Sto To 0.2 0.2 20 0.1 10 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Season Season