~ Towards contributing to Policy Making for Disaster Prevention~ Aina Ota, Toshio Koike with Koike Lab. members and Yokomatsu
1d. Build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disaster by x% Disaster Prevention Investment How much effect Disaster Prevention does the disaster Investment: prevention only 3.6% bring???? of foreign aid Does increasing Policy Makers Social Equality regress Economic Growth????
Disaster Prevention Investment Flood simulation 1. Develop of flood 2. Demonstrate counter models to reproduce measure effects for actual flood damage. reducing damage. 3. Translate flood model outputs into economic Economic simulation model inputs 4. Develop economic 5. Simulate effect of the models to reproduce counter measures on actual economic economy and society parameters. with several senarios.
Disaster Prevention Investment Flood simulation 1. Develop of flood 2. Demonstrate counter models to reproduce measure effects for actual flood damage. reducing damage. 3. Translate flood model outputs into economic Economic simulation model inputs 4. Develop economic 5. Simulate effect of the models to reproduce counter measures on actual economic economy and society parameters. with several senarios.
CaMa-flood vs. EM-DAT Assuming that the total affected population place flooded deeper 25000000 than 5.0m is affected, 20000000 15000000 CaMa-flood has some 10000000 reproducibility 5000000 compared to EM-DAT 0 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 emdat no
Disaster Prevention Investment Flood simulation 1. Develop of flood 2. Demonstrate counter models to reproduce measure effects for actual flood damage. reducing damage. 3. Translate flood model outputs into economic Economic simulation model inputs 4. Develop economic 5. Simulate effect of the models to reproduce counter measures on actual economic economy and society parameters. with several senarios.
2. Establish the levee as disaster prevention and calculate the effect on damage reduction Establishing LEVEE as Disaster Prevention in CaMa-flood and measure the effect of the levees on the damage reduction lower middle Building levee in mainstream of LOWER(LW) and MIDDLE(MD) basin D. Y amazasi, 2012, Physically-based Modelling of Large-scale Floodingin Continental-scale Rivers of the World
Disaster Prevention Investment Flood simulation 1. Develop of flood 2. Demonstrate counter models to reproduce measure effects for actual flood damage. reducing damage. 3. Translate flood model outputs into economic Economic simulation model inputs 4. Develop economic 5. Simulate effect of the models to reproduce counter measures on actual economic economy and society parameters. with several senarios.
What percentage of Physical Asset were damaged for each 5 income brackets?? Family size data Physical Assets distribution Income Family CaMa-flood Size Bracket 1 st ,poorest 8.78 Income Physical result!!!!! Bracket asset 2 nd , poor 7.97 1 st ,poorest 84$ 3 rd , middle 7.32 2 nd , poor 151$ 4 th , rich 6.45 3 rd , middle 181$ 5 th , richest 5.36 4 th , rich 197$ 5 th , richest 313$ Income Physical assets Percentage of bracket amount inundated area Family size map for 5 brackets distribution
Disaster Prevention Investment Flood simulation 1. Develop of flood 2. Demonstrate counter models to reproduce measure effects for actual flood damage. reducing damage. 3. Translate flood model outputs into economic Economic simulation model inputs 4. Develop economic 5. Simulate effect of the models to reproduce counter measures on actual economic economy and society parameters. with several senarios.
Gini coefficient reduction (%) GDP comparison Low levee/No levee LW and MD levee against NO levee Middle levee/No levee MD: increase equality 1.80 75 MD: more GDP growth 50 1.60 25 0 1.40 2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 2060 2068 2076 2084 2092 2100 -25 -50 1.20 -75 1.00 -100 LW: less GDP growth -125 0.80 LW: decrease equality -150 2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 2060 2068 2076 2084 2092 2100 (NO-LW)/NO (NO-MD)/NO LW/NO MD/NO
LW levee saved MD levee saved people only richest people at the highest risk As a Result!! Consumption per Capita Consumption per Capita comparison comparison Middle levee/No levee Low levee/No levee 2 1.8 1.5 1 1.3 0.5 MD: increase equality 0.8 2004 2011 2018 2025 2032 2039 2046 2053 2060 2067 2074 2081 2088 2095 2102 LW: decrease equality 2010 2016 2022 2028 2040 2046 2052 2058 2064 2082 2088 2094 2100 2004 2034 2070 2076 poorest poor middle rich richest poorest poor middle rich richest
~ Summary Disaster Prevention Investment Build levee with Policy Makers considering location Integrate flood model & economic model Take account for 1d. Build resilience distribution of and reduce deaths income brackets from natural disaster by x% RESULT: In middle levee case, Disaster prevention GDP was 1.4 time enable both against no prevention Economic Growth Gini coefficient and Social Equality descended 50%
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