Toendepi Shonhe The Land Question: Politics or Economic?
Tracing Inequality o 4% (Whites) of population controlled over 90% of the economy 96% (blacks) of the population controlled 10% of the economy (Mazhinji and Kamidza, 2011) o So, skewed colonial settler land ownership patterns resulted in a dualism and enclavity, separating the rural (Africans) and urban (Whites) sectors in Zimbabwe Ndlela, 1981, Moyo, 2011
Tracing Inequality • 97.6% (Africans) of the population controlled 60% of wages and salaries while 2% (whites) controlled 37% • Rampant overcrowding and over grazing in the Native Reserves where 70% of the unemployed Africans lived.
Inequality today By Gini-coefficient it jumped from 0.57% in 1995 to 0.64 in 2003, 75% households being in rural areas; compared to 39% in urban areas
Dual Enclave
New inequality and Primitive Accumulation past colonial imbalances • • Failed neo-liberal policies by Zanu PF and ESAP • Fast track land reform led to economic collapse and unemployment • a new elite class has emerged - top ZANU-PF officials, war veterans, top civil servants and ruling party sympathisers.
Who benefited, how & where? Beneficiary Beneficiary Beneficiary Beneficiary Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Mugabe and wife 14 farms - 16000 hectares Mujuru and late husband 25 farms General Chiwenga 2 farms 90% of 200 major and lieutenant 400 CIO 250 hectares 56 politburo, 98 MPs, 35 unelected senators, Same sizes as previous white 10 governors, 65% of 200 traditional chiefs, farmers 16 judges
Indigenization or Politics?
Indigenization levels by sector, by percent of output
We saw this power retention agenda - driving policies and politics before!
Is it the same old story? 674 × 388 - bulawayo24.com 1600 × 1152 - platform2012.blogsp ot.com 674 × 388 - bulawayo24.com
Before answering – a bit of political context!
Forced Marriage
Uneven Marriage
Presidential Candidate Preference “ Thinking about next year’s presidential election, which candidate will you vote for in 2013?” 50 40 36 29 30 20 20 10 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 Robert Morgan Welshman Arthur Simba Other Would not Refused to Don't know Mugabe Tsvangirai Ncube Mutambara Makoni vote answer Valid Percent
How about recent studies • Even Scoones et.al: noted the need to avoid capture by the elites and powerful players and for focusing on rebuilding the rural economy (Scoones et.al, 2010) • “Accumulation from below” but for how many? To what effect on inequality, poverty and • productivity by smallholder farmers? • How did they do it Malaysia’s reform process, Northern America or Philippines?
Series1, Other, Agriculture, 372878, Private Domestic, 83728, 4% 17% 8% Health, 45875, 2% Series1, Education, 238162, 11% Series1, Mining, Series1, Public 285142, 13% Admin, 63825, 3% Series1, Transport, 82966, 4% Series1, Distribution, 183665, 8% Series1, Manufacturing, Series1, Finance, 337415.6203, 15% 45387, 2% Series1, Series1, Electricity, Construction, 25215.234, 1% 263208, 12%
State controlled Rural Insurgency � Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA) � Indigenous Business Development Centre (IBDC) � Judiciary � DCCs � The Villager???
History repeating itself Defective Lancaster House settlement of 1979 and now, dispossession with no compensation!
Property rights, land permits, productivity or the Vote?
Or is it skills, If communalisation of the farms or the commercialisation of the rural?
Do we have a Vision as Zimbabwe ? • Taking us from the Vulture Scenario to the Stone people • It starts with strong, visionary, genuine, caring leadership
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