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The Work of the Future: Challenges and Opportunities for Workers - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Work of the Future: Challenges and Opportunities for Workers with Disabilities in the Robot -ificial Intelligence Era David Autor, Ford Professor MIT Department of Economics and NBER Disability Research Center Annual Meeting Aug 1,

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SLIDE 1

The Work of the Future: Challenges and Opportunities for Workers with Disabilities in the ‘Robot-ificial’ Intelligence Era

David Autor, Ford Professor MIT Department of Economics and NBER Disability Research Center Annual Meeting Aug 1, 2018. Washington DC

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SLIDE 2

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 3

The Surprising Stability of Self-Reported Work Limitations Among U.S. Adults 40 - 64, 1988 – 2017

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

Despite pop’n aging

  • Almost no rise

in self-reported work limitations between 1988 – 2008

  • Work limitation

trends upward only in last decade, 2008 – 2017

  • 5

10 15 20 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%) Population Aged 40−64

Percent with Work Limitation

1988 - 2008 2008 - 2017

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SLIDE 4

Frequency of Self-Reported Work Limitations Also Remarkably Stable by Age Group, 1988 – 2017

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

Age 60 – 61 Age 55 – 59 Age 50 – 54 Age 45 – 49 Age 40 – 44

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SLIDE 5

Similarly Stable by Gender, with Some Rise after 2008

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

Women Ages 50 - 59 Men ages 50 – 59 Women ages 40 – 49 Men ages 40 – 49

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SLIDE 6
  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • No WL

With WL Aged 40−61

Percent Employed

But Employment of Work-Limited Adults Fell from 1992 – 2012, then Rebounded after 2012

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

No work limitation Work limitation

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SLIDE 7

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 8

Even Among Those Ages 40 – 61, Adults with Work Limitations are Older than Average

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

What share are 55+?

  • 46% among Soc. Security

beneficiaries

  • 38% among Work Limited,

not Employed

  • 36% among Work Limited,

Employed

  • 27% among Non-Work

Limited

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SLIDE 9

Seems Natural that Population Aging Should be Key Cause of Falling Employment among Work-Limited Adults

But Aging is Not the Explanation

  • Employment fell among every

age bracket of work-limited adults

  • Largest fall among those ages

40-44 (23 pts!)

  • And largest rebound among

this group after 2012

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 10

But Employment Fell Uniformly Across Cohorts at Every Age Level

Cohorts in this figure Age 40-43 in 1988 Age 40-43 in 1992 Age 40-43 in 1996 Age 40-43 in 2000 Age 40-43 in 2004

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

  • 10

20 30 40 50 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • 1948−51

1952−55 1956−59 1960−63 1964−67 Aged 40−61 With Work Limitation

Percent Employed by Birth Cohort

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SLIDE 11

Compare to Employment Rates of Adults without Work- Limitations: No Decline in Employment Across Cohorts

Cohorts in this figure Age 40-43 in 1988 Age 40-43 in 1992 Age 40-43 in 1996 Age 40-43 in 2000 Age 40-43 in 2004

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • 1948−51

1952−55 1956−59 1960−63 1964−67 Aged 40−61 With No Work Limitation

Percent Employed by Birth Cohort

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 12

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 13

The Earnings Premium for Higher Education Has Risen Steeply since 1980

MEN WOMEN CPS Annual Demographic File (Autor, 2014)

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SLIDE 14

Adults Ages 40 - 61 with Work Limitations Have Relatively Low Educational Attainment

Fraction with some college or greater

  • Soc. Sec. beneficiaries: 35%
  • Work-Limited, not employed:

41%

  • Work-Limited, employed:

57%

  • Not Work-Limited: 65%

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

13

23 40 26 9 19 38 29 12 9 31 32 25 7 27 27 37

25 50 75 100 1 S S B e n e f 2 W L , N

  • t

E m p l

  • y

e d 3 W L , E m p l

  • y

e d 4 N

  • W

L , E m p l

  • y

e d Percent of Group (%) 4 College+ 3 Some College 2 HS 1 No HS Aged 40−61, 2010−2017

Education by Work Limitation

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SLIDE 15

Employment Among Adults Without Work Limitations is Higher Among More Educated Adults

  • College or Greater
  • Some College
  • High School
  • Less than High School
  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • 1 No HS

2 HS 3 Some College 4 College+ Aged 40−61 With No Work Limitation

Percent Employed by Education

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 16

Also True Among Young (25-39) Not Work-Limited Adults

  • College or Greater
  • Some College
  • High School
  • Less than High School
  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • 1 No HS

2 HS 3 Some College 4 College+ Aged 25−39 With No Work Limitation

Percent Employed by Education

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 17

Unhappy Surprise: Employment of Adults with Work- Limitations Fell at All Education Levels, 1988 – 2012

  • College or Greater
  • Some College
  • High School
  • Less than High School
  • Notice rebound after 2012

for all education groups

  • 10

20 30 40 50 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • 1 No HS

2 HS 3 Some College 4 College+ Aged 40−61 With Work Limitation

Percent Employed by Education

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 18

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 19

Happily, Adults with Work Limitations Have Comparable Earnings to Non-Limited Workers in Same Occ’s

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 20

Adults with Work Limitations Overrepresented in Low- and Middle-Income Occupations

(WL – Non-WL) = + 6.5pp (WL – Non-WL) = + 5.4pp (WL – Non-WL) = - 12.7pp

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 21

Adults with Work Limitations Overrepresented in Low- and Middle-Income Occupations

No Work Limitation With Work Limitation

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 22

2016

Low Skill

18.2%

High Skill

38.6%

Medium Skill

43.2%

1979

Low Skill

13.7%

High Skill

25.2%

Medium Skill

61.1%

̈

Why is this Overrepresentation a Concern? Job Polarization: The ‘Barbell’ Labor Market

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SLIDE 23

Employment Has ‘Polarized’ Among Workers Ages 40 – 61 Without Work Limitations

5 10 15 20 25 30 F

  • d

/ C l e a n i n g P e r s . C a r e O p e r . / L a b

  • r

A d m i n . P r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

S a l e s P r

  • t

e c t i v e T e c h n i c i a n P r

  • f

e s s i

  • n

a l M a n a g e r Occupation Category Percent of Group (%)

1990−97 2000−07 2010−17

Ages 40−61, Employed w No Work Limitation

Occupational Proportions

Includes DI/SSI Beneficiaries.

  • 6.8pp

+2.2pp +4.7pp

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 24

Employment Has Also Polarized Among Adults with Work Limitations: Steep Decline in Middle-Skill/Wage Jobs

  • 7.1pp

+1.9pp +5.2pp

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 25

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 26

1.1% 2.5% 5.8% 11.0% 3.0% 0.5% 1.2% 2.9% 5.0% 1.4% 3.6% 8.7% 14.5% 5.3% 1.3% 3.6% 7.9% 12.0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 25-39 40-49 50-59 60-64 25-64 25-39 40-49 50-59 60-64

Comparison of SSDI Prevalence by Age and Gender, 1989 and 2014 1989 2014 Men Women

SSDI Receipt Rose 1989 - 2014 for All Age Groups + Sexes, Largest Jumps Among Ages 50–59, 60–64

Source: SSA and CPS/ACS

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SLIDE 27

Rise in SSDI/SSI Receipt Pronounced at All Age Levels Among Work-Limited Adults – then Rebound 2012-Forward

  • Ages 60 – 61
  • Ages 55 – 69
  • Ages 50 – 54
  • Ages 45 – 49
  • Ages 40 – 44

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 28

Rise in SSDI/SSI Pronounced at All Education Levels Among Work-Limited Adults – then Rebound 2012-Forward

  • Less than High School
  • High School Grad
  • Some College
  • College Grad

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 29

Rise in SSDI/SSI Pronounced Among Both Sexes Among Work-Limited Adults – Then Rebound 2012-Forward

  • Men age 50 – 59
  • Women age 50 – 59
  • Men age 40 – 49
  • Women age 40 – 49

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 30

The Sharp Reduction in Hearing Allowance Rates Slowed Program Inflows, Deterred Applications

Source: Maestas, Mullen and Strand 2018

Counterfactual: No Great Recession Actual

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SLIDE 31

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 32

The Twelve Occupations with Largest Projected Numerical Employment Gains 2016—2026

778K 580K 438K 431K 255K 237K 205K 200K 184K 183K 173K 150K 0K 100K 200K 300K 400K 500K 600K 700K 800K Personal care aides Combined food preparation and serving workers Registered nurses Home health aides Software developers, applications Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners General and operations managers Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand Medical assistants Waiters and waitresses Nursing assistants Construction laborers

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018

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SLIDE 33

5 10 15 20 25 Food/Cleaning

  • Pers. Care

Oper./Labor Admin.Production Sales Protective Technician Professional Manager Occupation Group Projected Percent Growth (%) 2016−2026

Projected Occupation Growth

Occupations with Most Projected Growth Are Personal Services and Prof/Tech/Management Occupations

+ 12.2% + 3.7% + 13.4%

Personal Services Production, Admin Support, Sales Professional, Technician, Manager

Source: BLS Occupational Outlook, 2018

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SLIDE 34

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 35

Fraction of Jobs Requiring College Degree Rising Among Non-Limited, Flat Among Work-Limited

Sources: BLS Occupational Requirements Survey Current Population Survey, IPUMS

Job needs college degree

  • Not work-limited
  • Work-limited
  • 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • No WL, Employed

WL, Employed Employed Non−Beneficiaries Aged 40−61

Percent in Occupation Requiring College Degree

Includes DI/SSI Beneficiaries.

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SLIDE 36

Fraction of Jobs w/ Complex Decision-Making Rising Among Non-Limited, Flatter Among Work-Limited

Job needs college degree

  • Not work-limited
  • Work-limited
  • 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • No WL, Employed

WL, Employed Employed Non−Beneficiaries Aged 40−61

Percent in Occupation Requiring Complex Decisions

Includes DI/SSI Beneficiaries.

Sources: BLS Occupational Requirements Survey Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 37

Education Has Risen Among All Worker Groups, but Remains Much Lower Among Adults with Work Limitations

Rise in college-share

  • 5 pts: SS Beneficiaries
  • 6 pts: Work-limited,

not Working

  • 12 pts: Work-limited,

Working

  • 13 pts: Not Work-

Limited

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SLIDE 38

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 39

Ironically, Jobs Held by Adults with Work-Limitations are Disproportionately Likely to Require Standing

Standing >50% of workday

  • Work-limited
  • Not work-limited
  • 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • No WL, Employed

WL, Employed Employed Non−Beneficiaries Aged 40−61

Percent in Occupation Standing > 50% of W orkday

Includes DI/SSI Beneficiaries.

Sources: BLS Occupational Requirements Survey Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 40

Ironically, Jobs Held by Adults with Work-Limitations are Disproportionately Likely to Require Lifting

Lifting 40+ pounds

  • Work-limited
  • Not work-limited
  • 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • No WL, Employed

WL, Employed Employed Non−Beneficiaries Aged 40−61

Percent in Occupation Lifting 40+ Pounds

Includes DI/SSI Beneficiaries.

Sources: BLS Occupational Requirements Survey Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 41

Adults with Work Limitations Concentrated in Standing/ Lifting Jobs—Which Are Projected to Grow

  • Standing >50% of day
  • Lifting 40+ pounds
  • Complex decision-

making

  • College degree

Source: BLS Occupational Requirements Survey

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SLIDE 42

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 43

Not All Robots are Engineered to Replace Workers

Phoenix Exoskeleton by SuitX RIBA II Care Robot by RIKEN

Assistive technologies will improve dramatically but remain

  • expensive. And SSI/SSDI cannot assist workers (paradox)
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SLIDE 44

1) Context: What has happened to the employment

  • f adults with work limitations – and why?
  • The role of population aging
  • The role of education
  • The role of occupational change
  • The SSDI program

2) Challenges ahead

  • The ”hollowing” labor market
  • Opportunities for high-skill work
  • Opportunities for service-oriented work

3) Assisting the workers of the future

  • Assistive technologies
  • The medical-vocational grid

Outline

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SLIDE 45

Revisiting the Medical-Vocational Grid: Age is Much Less Relevant than It Used to Be

Emp/Pop’n Among Work- Limited Adults Age 40-44 Age 45-49 Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-61

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 46

Revisiting the Medical-Vocational Grid: Education Remains Quite Important

Emp/Pop’n Among Work- Limited Adults College Grad Some College High School Grad High School Drop

  • 10

20 30 40 50 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Percent (%)

  • 1 No HS

2 HS 3 Some College 4 College+

Aged 40−61 With Work Limitation

Percent Employed by Education

Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS

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SLIDE 47

Challenge for Adults w/Work Limitations in Future Jobs: Most Require Either College Degree or Physical Labor

Occupational Requirements Standing 50%+ of Time Lifting 40+ Pounds Complex Decision-Making College Degree

Source: BLS Occupational Requirements Survey

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SLIDE 48
  • 1. Age is much less relevant for employment of work-limited

adults than it used to be

– Related to less strenuous jobs?

  • 2. Physical tasks (e.g. standing) remain important

– Assistive technologies will greatly improve – But SSA is not designed to provide these support – Can the Americans with Disabilities Act help? – Automation will not reverse this pattern soon

  • 3. Four-year college education increasingly critical to non-

physically-task-intensive jobs

– Growth of professional, technical, managerial jobs – Automation will not reverse this pattern soon

Implications for the Medical-Vocational Grid

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SLIDE 49
  • Employment of adults with work limitations collapsed 1992 – 2011

—then rebounded since 2012. What caused the collapse and rebound?

  • 1. Occupational change
  • 2. Labor market tightness
  • 3. SSA policy
  • You can order these as you prefer
  • The key employment challenges going forward…
  • 1. Rising demand for workers with college degree
  • 2. Rising demand for non-college low-paid, physically demanding jobs
  • Future of work for work-limited adults…

– Opportunity: Assistive technologies will be amazingly good – Challenge: But Social Security disability programs not designed to assist adults to remain in the labor force

Conclusions: Challenges and Opportunities for Workers with Disabilities in the ‘Robot-ificial’ Intelligence Era