The Use of Bottom-up Optimisation Models for Analysing the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Use of Bottom-up Optimisation Models for Analysing the Transition to Low-Carbon Cities CREE - 6th Research Workshop Arne Lind, IFE

v Motivation • Urban development will play a dominant role in the mitigation of GHG in the Nordic region • About 85% of the Nordic population live in urban areas • Buildings and infrastructure from the 1950s are mostly still in use • Massive effort is needed in retrofitting of existing buildings and the decarbonisation of transport • Larger Nordic cities have a wider range of technology options available to mitigate climate change • Can take leadership in the drive to achieve carbon neutrality across the Nordic region • The Nordic region has considerable wind power potential close to urban areas • Largely coastal population v 15/11/2017 2

v Content • Introduction • Methodology • Detailed case studies • Results • Concluding remarks v 15.11.2017 3

v Part 1: Introduction v 15.11.2017 4

Visualisation of Nordic CO 2 emissions, 2013

v Oslo • Oslo: Capital of Norway • Climate targets in Oslo (more ambitious than national targets): • 50 % emission reduction before 2030 • No use of fossil fuels by 2050 • No use of fossils in public transport after 2020 Oslo • Oslo is world leading in EV roll-out • 2000 public charging points • ¼ of the total national • One per 330 inhabitants v 8

v Energy consumption in 2009 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Electricity [TWh] Petroleum products 2.5 Waste 2.0 Biofuels Gas 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0033 0.0013 0.0 Households Services Primary Holiday Industry Transport industries cottages v 15/11/2017 9

v CO2 emissions: 1991 - 2013 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Total emissions M t Transport sector 0.6 Stationary sector 0.4 0.2 0 1991 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 v 15/11/2017 10

v Focus areas • Urban development • E.g. planning of urban areas and public transport junctions • Infrastructure • Including energy stations for renewable fuels in transport (e.g. battery charging, hydrogen and biofuels) • Transport • Focus on green transport fuels and reduced use of private cars • Buildings • Special focus on prohibiting the use of fuel oil and implementation of energy efficiency measures • Energy production and distribution • E.g. new infrastructure for central heating and optimal utilisation of local energy resources v 15/11/2017 11

v Part 2: Methodology v 15.11.2017 12

v Modelling approach • An energy system model (TIMES-Oslo) was developed in order to analyse how Oslo can transform into a low-carbon city • TIMES-Oslo is a bottom-up, techno-economic model describing the energy system in Oslo • Comprises a technology-rich basis for estimating energy dynamics over a long-term, multi-period time horizon • Assumes perfect competition and perfect foresight and is demand driven • Aims to supply energy services at minimum global cost by making equipment investments, as well as operating, primary energy supply and energy trade decisions • Base year: 2010 • Model horizon: 2010 – 2050 • The city of Oslo is represented as a single model region v 15/11/2017 13

v Methodology overview Scenarios Predictive, exploratory and normative Projections of TIM ES-Oslo M odel drivers/ activity (A) Energy results: Conversion / Transmission Demand service Processes / Distribution technologies * Energy demand production Statistics: Indicator (I) * Energy use * Energy * Base year * End-use * End-use * Development E = A × I technologies * Drivers * Other v 15/11/2017 14

v Scenario assumptions • The analyses include all active national measures of today • Green certificate market • Enova policy measures • Energy taxes are kept constant at the 2014 level • Energy prices • The development in energy prices for imported energy carriers are corresponding to the Current Policy Scenario (WEO2013) • The prices of electricity import/export, to and from Norway, are given exogenous to the model • Kept constant at the 2014 level throughout the analysis v 15/11/2017 15

v Main scenarios • Reference scenario (REF) • Includes all current national policies • Used to illustrate the effects of the policies analysed in the other scenarios • 2 degree scenario (2DS) • Corresponds closely to the 2DS presented in NETP 2016 where a 85% reduction trajectory is presented • Overall CO2 emission constraint is included for 2030 (50% red.) and 2050 (87% red.) • Oslo targets (CLI) • The targets include to halve the emissions of greenhouse gases before 2030, and to use no fossil fuels by 2050 • The targets are added to the model as restrictions v 15/11/2017 16

v Climate and energy measures Focus area\Sector -> Transport Building Energy sector T2: Improved infrastructure for Urban development public transport T3: Infrastructure for renewable transport fuels Infrastructure T6: Transferring freight from road to rail and ship T1: No increase in vehicle-km T4: Support scheme for renewable fuels Transport T5: Procurement of renewable transport services B1: Prohibition of fossil fuels for heating B3: Support scheme for E2: Energy storage in Buildings passive houses buildings B4: Support for energy efficiency measures E1: Renewable energy Energy production and B2: Providing areas for new production from local energy solutions distribution resources v 15/11/2017 17

v Part 3: Results v 15.11.2017 18

v CO2 emissions in Oslo Reference scenario Total emissions Transport sector Stationary sector 1.8 Statistics Model results 1.6 1.4 1.2 [M t] 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 v 15.11.2017 19

v Energy consumption per sector Reference scenario (2050) v 15.11.2017 20

v 2DS: Emissions in transport decrease - but continues to be the main contributor to CO 2 emissions in the future Note: Emission from district heating is from waste incineration v 15/11/2017 21

v Household energy consumption for heating 6 5 Solar heat 4 Oil boiler LPG boiler [TWh] District heat 3 Elc resistance HP a/ a 2 HP w/ w Wood stove Pellets boiler 1 0 REF REF 2DS CLI REF 2DS CLI 2010 2030 2050 v 15/11/2017 22

v Transport sector: Technology choices 4.5 = Fossil 4 Sea transport (hydrogen) Sea transport (fossil fuels) 3.5 Public transport (biodiesel) Public transport (diesel) 3 Public transport (elc) Other transport (diesel) 2.5 [TWh] Other transport (biodiesel) HD trucks (biodiesel) 2 LD trucks (electric) LD + HD trucks (diesel) 1.5 LD + HD trucks (biodiesel blend) Gasoline (car + hybrid) 1 Diesel car Electricity (car + hybrid) 0.5 Biodiesel (car + blend) 0 REF REF 2DS CLI REF 2DS CLI 2010 2030 2050 v 11/15/2017 23

v CO ₂ emissions and energy consumption - compared to the reference scenario in 2050 CLI 2DS B1 T4 T3 B4 B2 E1 Energy consumption T2 CO2 emissions T6 T5 T1 B3 E2 Ref 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Relative CO2 emissions and energy consumption [%] v 15/11/2017 24

v Focus areas • B1: Prohibition of use of fossil fuels for heating • Lowest emissions with a reduction of 0.49 Mt in 2050 (66% of REF) • More use of wood pellet boilers, district heating, woodstoves and electric radiators • Only 7% of the emissions in 2050 come from the stationary sector • T4: Support schemes for implementation of renewable transport fuels • A reduction of 0.38 Mt CO2 in 2050 (74% of REF) • CO2 contribution is slightly lower for transport than for the stationary sector • B4: Financial support for energy efficiency measures • A reduction in energy use of 1.4 TWh (17.6%) in households • A reduction in energy use of 0.9 TWh (12.4%) for services • Also considerable CO2 emission reductions (79% of REF) v 15/11/2017 25

v Combination of independent measures - the goal in 2050 is not reached 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Ref scenario B1 + T4 [M t] 0.8 B1 + T4 + T6 2030 target 0.6 2DS CLI 0.4 0.2 0 2010 2020 2030 2050 v 11/15/2017 26

v Abatement costs • 2DS: Average abatement cost of 2300 NOK per ton CO2 removed • Consists of: • Energy system costs (e.g. investment and operational costs) • Costs related to disposal of oil boilers and tanks • Costs for retrofitting exiting buildings for obtaining better energy performance standards • CLI: Average abatement cost of 2370 NOK per ton CO2 removed • Increased costs due to more use of hydrogen technologies • B4: Prohibition of use of fossil fuels for heating • Average abetment cost: 922 NOK/ton CO2 • High feasibility • T4: Support schemes for implementation of renewable transport fuels • Average abetment cost: 448 NOK/ton CO2 • High to medium feasibility (related to level of ambition) v 15/11/2017 27

v Limitations • The model results are based on a linear least cost model assuming perfect competition and perfect foresight • Future technologies not invented are not included in the model • Human behaviour aspects are hard to incorporate properly • Particularly relevant when considering implementation of energy efficiency measures • Infrastructure costs for non-energy items (e.g. tunnels or roads) are not included in the model • Must be added after the analysis • Lack of other emissions beside CO2 • In an urban area, the local air quality is clearly of high importance v 15/11/2017 28