The Upcoming U.S. Elections: the Mood of the American People Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes October, 2018
Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations • Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 108 countries • www.pewresearch.org • @pewresearch 2
THE MOOD OF THE ELECTORATE 3
A sense of victimhood: Even many ‘winners’ feel like they’re losing in politics Thinking about the way things have been going in politics over the last few years on issues that matter to you, would you say your side has been … (%) Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 13, 2018. October 18, 2018 4
Most continue to say government is run by a few big interests % who say the government is run … Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018. October 18, 2018 5
A sense of alienation from Congress: Most say it is unlikely their representative would help them address a problem if contacted Suppose you contacted your member of the U.S. House of Representatives with a problem. How likely do you think it is that they would help you address it? (%) Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29–Feb. 13, 2018. Congressional district information comes from Gary Jacobson’s database of congressional election results. October 18, 2018 6
Partisans Remain Divided Over the 2017 Tax Law % who __ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last year Disapprove Approve Total 46 36 Rep/Lean Rep 12 72 Dem/Lean Dem 73 12 Family income $75,000 or more 41 49 $30,000-$74,999 50 36 Less than $30,000 46 26 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
There is a Stark Partisan Divide in Americans’ Views of Cooperation with U.S. Allies % who say the U.S. should take into account the interests of its allies, even if it means making compromises Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem 74 65 43 36 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
Fewer Americans Believe That Say Other Countries ‘Take Unfair Advantage’ of U.S. Than in the 1990s % who say that other countries … Generally treat U.S. as fairly as we treat them Often take unfair advantage of the U.S. 78 70 51 42 24 19 July 1994 Sept 1999 Sept 2018 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
But a Partisan Divide Has Emerged on Other Nations Taking Unfair Advantage’ of the U.S. % who say that other countries oten take unfair advantage of the United States Dem/Lean Dem Rep/Lean Rep 80 80 76 73 68 28 July 1994 Sept 1999 Sept 2018 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
Democrats Believe the U.S. is Much Less Respected Abroad, Such Republican Concern is Down % who say that, compared with the past, the U.S. is ____ by other countries these days Source: Survey conducted Oct. 25-30, 2017. October 18, 2018 11
There is a Profound Disrespect for the Other Party: Large Majorities of Democrats and Republicans View Each Other Unfavorably Democratic attitudes about the Republican Party Republican attitudes about the Democratic Party Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018. 12 October 18, 2018
THE UPCOMING CONGRESSIONAL MIDTERMS 13
Data and graphics source: FiveThirtyEight October 18, 2018 14
Voter enthusiasm has risen – especially among Democrats % of registered voters who say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting … Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018 15
Voters are focused on Supreme Court % of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in 2018 … Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018 16
Where party priorities align % of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in 2018 … Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018 17
Where party priorities differ % of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in 2018 … Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018 18
Looking Ahead, Democrats Are Much Less Likely Than in the Past to Want Their Elected Officials to Compromise % who say they like elected officials who make compromises with people they disagree with Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018. October 18, 2018 19
IS THIS ELECTION A REFERENDUM ON DONALD TRUMP? 20
In Pew Surveys There Has Been Consistent Disapproval of President Trump’s Job Performance % who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president 63 Disapprove 55 56 39 38 Approve 32 Feb Dec Sept 2017 2017 2018 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18–24, 2018. October 18, 2018
Today, There Are Wide Demographic Differences in Trump Job Approval % who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president Disapprove Approve Total 55% 38% Men 47 46 Women 63 30 White 47 47 Black 84 6 Hispanic 71 21 Ages 18-29 60 27 30-49 56 38 50-64 54 41 65+ 51 45 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
Such Disapproval is Highly Partisan % who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president Disapprove Approve Postgrad 67% 28% College grad 62 34 Some college 50 39 HS or less 53 40 Rep/Lean Rep 14 79 Conserv 8 87 Mod/Lib 26 63 Dem/Lean Dem 90 7 Cons/Mod 85 11 Liberal 95 4 White evang Prot 27 67 White mainline Prot 40 52 Catholic 55 41 Unaffiliated 71 22 Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
In the latest Pew survey, Trump gets low % who say each describes Trump ... marks for temperament, trust; but most say he stands up for his beliefs Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. 24 October 18, 2018
Republicans Give Trump Very Positive Ratings on Traits – Except Temperament % who say each describes Trump … Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
Impressions of Trump as “Competent” Lags Behind Other Presidents in Midterm Years % who say each describes president … Able to get things done Strong Leader Trump Sept '18 Trump Sept '18 50 43 Obama July '14 Obama July '14 44 47 Obama June '10 55 Obama June '10 53 Bush Aug '06 43 Bush Aug '06 43 Clinton July '94 Clinton July '94 40 nothing Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
And Impressions of Trump as “Trustworthy” Lag Well Behind Other Presidents in Midterm Years % who say each describes president … Trustworthy Cares about people like me Trump Sept '18 36 Trump Sept '18 34 Obama July '14 54 Obama July '14 51 Obama June '10 60 Obama June '10 58 Bush Aug '06 41 Bush Aug '06 41 Clinton July '94 46 Clinton July '94 nothing Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
Impressions of Trump as “Well Informed” Also Lag Well Behind Other Presidents in Midterm Years % who say each describes president … Well informed Trump Sept '18 38 Obama July '14 N/A Obama June '10 67 Bush Aug '06 46 Clinton July '94 58 Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018
And The American Public is Divided Over Whether Trump Has Respect for America’s Democratic Institutions, Traditions % who say Donald Trump has ___ respect for this country’s democratic institutions and traditions Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018. October 18, 2018 29
So, are the Congressional midterms a referendum on Trump? Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote FOR the president, AGAINST the president or isn’t the president much of a factor in your vote? (%) Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018. October 18, 2018 30
All Pew Research Center reports are available online at www.pewresearch.org Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes @bruceestokes 31 October 18, 2018
Recommend
More recommend
