The Status of Aquaculture in Myanmar: A review of existing data - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Status of Aquaculture in Myanmar: A review of existing data Ben Belton (MSU), Aung Hein, Kyan Htoo, L. Seng Kham (CESD) Ulrike Nischan (IFPRI), Thomas Reardon & Duncan Boughton (MSU) This study is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The study was also supported by financial assistance from the Livelihoods and Food Security Trust Fund (LIFT). The contents are the responsibility of Michigan State University (MSU) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID, the United States Government, or LIFT and its donors 1

Outline • Why focus on aquaculture? • Conventional Wisdom (literature review) • Fish Consumption and Price Data (IHLCA 2010 and CSO) • Production and Trade (CSO, DOF, FAO) • Spatial Analysis of Pond Area (Google Earth Pro) 2

Why focus on aquaculture? • Fish is crucial to food and nutrition security in many of the world’s least developed countries – often the major source of micronutrients • Demand for fish increasing in line with rising incomes and urbanization, shift from staples to higher value foods • Global capture fisheries output growth stagnant • Aquaculture is fastest growing food sector globally, providing half the world’s food fish, set to grow 35% by 2022 to 85 million t (OECD/FAO, 2013) • Fish farming is a high value agricultural activity 3

Productive, high value activity 6011 6000 Gross margin per hectare (USD) 5000 4000 3310 3461 3000 2502 2185 2147 1698 2000 1084 1000 473 460 314 146 61 0 Per hectare returns from paddy, horticulture and aquaculture in Bangladesh (Source: Derived from IFPRI, 2013; 2015; Jahan, 2016)

The conventional wisdom on Myanmar’s aquaculture • Large-scale farm dominated • No small-scale producers • Impossible to construct ponds on paddy land • Export oriented • Low productivity and technical efficiency • Limited employment generation 5

Fish Consumption 6

Househ Househol old Food Food Expendi Expenditu ture Budget e Budget Shares hares Share of national food expenditure by food group (%) (Source: Authors’ calculations from IHLCA 2010 dataset)

Fish’s contribution to consumption of animal source foods Lower 56% 29% 12% 2 South 57% 30% 11% 2 West 56% 34% 9% 2 * National 50% 35% 13% 2 North 40% 45% 13% 2 Central 40% 44% 14% 2 East 31% 52% 16% 2 Fish Meat Eggs Milk 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated average annual consumption per capita (kg) Myanmar estimated average annual consumption of animal source foods per capita, by location (Source: authors’ calculations from IHLCA 2010 dataset) 8

Rural and Urban Fish Consumption Average fish consumption (kg/capita/year) Dried/ Fresh-water Marine Aquaculture processed capture capture All fish National 3.9 6.4 5.1 3.5 18.9 Rural 3.5 6.5 5.5 3.3 18.7 Urban 5.0 6.3 4.0 4.1 19.4 Urban – Rural Difference (%) 41 -2 -27 25 3 Average consumption of fish by source and location (Source: Author’s calculations from IHLCA dataset 2010) 9

Fish consumption by economic status Average fish consumption (kg/capita/year) Fresh- Dried/ water Marine Aquaculture processed capture capture All fish Quintile 1 1.6 4.2 4.3 3.0 13.0 Quintile 2 3.2 5.8 4.6 3.0 16.6 Quintile 3 4.1 6.4 4.8 3.1 18.4 Quintile 4 4.9 7.3 5.3 3.8 21.2 Quintile 5 5.5 8.3 6.3 4.4 24.5 Q5-Q1 Difference (%) 253 98 47 45 88 Consumption increase per quintile (%) 34.4 17.3 9.5 10.1 16.2 Average consumption of fish by source and expenditure quintile (Source: Author’s calculations from IHLCA dataset 2010) 10

Fish Consumption Geography Aquaculture Freshwater capture Marine capture Dried/processed fish products 100% 90% 22 29 31 33 34 35 80% 44 70% 5 5 60% 12 18 9 50% 39 29 63 42 40% 31 23 27 30% 20 20% 32 25 24 22 10% 21 12 10 3 0% West South * National Lower Central East North Share of fish consumed by source and region (Authors’ Calculations from ILHCA- 2010)

Price (Kyat/Viss at constant 2008 prices) Nga Yan (Freshwater capture) 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 Real fish prices, May 2008-Jan 2015 (Source: CSO, various years) Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Historical Price Trends Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Nga Talauk (Marine capture) Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 - 0.5% + 2.9% + 5.2% Nga Myit Chin (Aquaculture) Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 12 Dec-14

Fish Production and Trade 13

Reported aquaculture production 900 Freshwater prawn Other freshwater fish Pangasius 800 Silver barb Common carp Mrigal Chinese major carp Tilapia Catla 700 Rohu Marine fish 600 Production ('000 t) 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Myanmar aquaculture production by species, 1990-2013 (Source: FAO, 2015) 14

Freshwater Aquaculture Exports Volume (t) % of total production 120000 16 14.3 14 14 13.3 14 12.9 Exports (% of total production) 100000 12 10.2 80000 10 Exports (t) 8.7 60000 8 6 40000 4 20000 2 0.01 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 Myanmar Inland Aquaculture Exports by Volume and Share of Total 15 Production (Source: derived from DOF, 2014)

Exports of farmed fish, by importing region 100 90 Aquaculture fish exports ('000 t) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Middle East South Asia Southeast Asia Europe Others Volume of freshwater aquaculture exports by importing region, 2004-2012 (Source: CSO, 2010; DOF, 2012)

Estimation of 2010 fish supply based on consumption and trade data Apparent Officially Difference production reported (%) (t) production (t) Source 123 Marine capture 923,150 2,060,780 Freshwater capture 524,341 1,002,430 91 Aquaculture 324,322 858,760 164 Total 1,771,813 3,921,970 121 Estimate of Myanmar’s total fish supply in 2010, based on apparent consumption and exports (Source: Derived from DOF, 2012; 2014, IHLCA 2010 17

Spatial Analysis 18

Reported fish pond area 250 90 80 200 70 Pond area ('000 acres) Pond area ('000 ha) 60 150 50 40 100 30 20 50 10 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Others Bago Yangon Ayeyarwaddy Myanmar inland fishpond area (Source: DOF, 2014) 19

Estimation of pond area and growth rates using satellite imagery Pond area Item (acres) Number of ponds Hlegu Cluster ( 2004 678 128 2009 1553 173 2014 1721 266 Change '04-‘14 (%) 154 108 “Nyaungdon Island” Cluster 2003 9698 994 2010 27663 1509 2014 34192 1736 Change '03-‘14 (%) 253 75 Latkyargyi Cluster 2003 2240 441 2014 3111 509 Change '03-‘14 (%) 39 15 Estimated spatial change in selected pond clusters (Source: Authors’ calculations from Google Earth Pro)

Spatial distribution of fish ponds in Lower Myanmar (Source: Authors’, derived from Google Earth satellite images) 21

Gap between reported and GIS estimated pond area Pond area (Ha) Pond area (Ha) Difference Region/State Official Google Earth (%) Ayeyarwady 45,705 56,721 24 Yangon 24,236 37,503 55 Bago 10,532 9,468 -10 Sub-total 80,868 103,978 29 Comparison of officially reported and estimated pond area (Source: Authors' own calculations from DOF, 2014; Google Earth Pro) 22

Conclusions • Triangulation of multiple data sources paints a picture of aquaculture that is much more complex than suggested by the conventional wisdom • Fish is by far the most important animal source food consumed in Myanmar, and crucial source of micronutrients in the diet • Aquaculture’s contribution to fish consumption growing fast, and is especially important in urban areas and Upper Myanmar • The real price of aquaculture fish is falling over time • The growth of aquaculture has been driven mainly by the domestic market, not by exports • Total fish production may be significantly lower than officially reported, but pond area has expanded rapidly over the last decade 23