The role of forests in climate change The role of forests in climate change and the issue of financing it and the issue of financing it An overview An overview TFD Dialogue TFD Dialogue New York, 24 April 2009 New York, 24 April 2009 Jü ürgen rgen Blaser Blaser J jblaser@intercooperation.ch jblaser@intercooperation.ch INTERCOOPERATION, Bern, Switzerland INTERCOOPERATION, Bern, Switzerland
Land and Forests (2007) Land and Forests (2007) Land and Forests (2007) « North »: temperate and boreal 1,900 m ha 1,900 m ha 22% of of the the land area land area 22% 30% of the world’ ’s land area is covered by forests s land area is covered by forests 30% of the world 1,900 m ha 1,900 m ha 38% of of the the land area land area 38% « South »: tropical and subtropical
The central role of forests in climate change The central role of forests in climate change Forests are vulnerable n i a h c d o o w e h t d n a e l p o e p , s m e t s y s o c e n o s t c a p m I s n o i s Forests emit GHG s i m m e G H G f o e c r u o s t n a t r o p m i t s o m d n o c e S
Forests can: � increase resilience of people and ecosystems (= adaptation), � fix and maintain carbon (= mitigation). Mitigation and adaptation options in the forest sector need to be e Mitigation and adaptation options in the forest sector need to b fully understood and used in an integrated way in the context of fully understood and used in an integrated way in the context of promoting sustainable development promoting sustainable development
Forests in the UNFCCC Forests in the UNFCCC Climate change and Climate variability Impacts Mitigation Adaptation Responses Responses … maintaining and increasing maintaining and increasing … maintaining and maintaining and … … ecosystem C pools and C increasing ecosystem ecosystem C pools and C increasing ecosystem sequestration – – reducing reducing resilience – – reducing reducing sequestration resilience emissions from biosphere vulnerability emissions from biosphere vulnerability
Some facts with Forests in Climate Change: Forests can increase resilience, fix and maintain carbon � If average C02 concentration continues to increase to 550 ppm or higher, forests will become highly vulnerable � high risk that GHG sinks become ? potentials? How do these risks and potentials influence CC financing? � How do these risks and potentials influence CC financing? and potentials sources of GHG emissions: risks and Forests are a mitigation option now and over the next 30 to 40 years, a ears, a Forests are a mitigation option now and over the next 30 to 40 y How to deal with these new risks necessary transitional measure towards a low carbon economy necessary transitional measure towards a low carbon economy � How to deal with these new Need to increase resilience of forest trees and ecosystems at the same time as using forests as a mitigation option. � Nevertheless, presently, the potential of forests as a mitigation option is huge (REDD/SFM, Afforestation/Reforestation, Forest Restoration) � � When forest mitigation options are adequately implemented, there is great � potential to also address co-benefits (adaptation, biodiversity, …)
The role of SFM in climate change Adaptation Maintaining and increasing ecosystem resilience – – reducing vulnerability reducing vulnerability Maintaining and increasing ecosystem resilience Adaptation Funds and other fund instruments, � Forest ecosystems are affected by climate variability/change: What are the direct and indirect impacts W forest-dependent people? Not subject of our dialogue on the forestry production chain? at the landscape level? � How can forests and trees contribute to reduce vulnerability (of social systems and ecosystems)? � A forest management agenda that includes a CC adaptation � A forest management agenda that includes a CC adaptation analysis and measures can increase the value of forests analysis and measures can increase the value of forests “ Avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable.. “ Avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable..” ” (Sigma Xi) (Sigma Xi)
Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation policy Forest/Land Management Option Mitigation Options in forestry Options in forestry Mitigation Mitigation Options in forestry option objective instrument (1) Committing forests as carbon pools Reducing REDD Reduce GHG deforestation (“first D”) (through e.g. enforcement of law, creation of emissions new protection areas, payments for environmental services in form of contractual agreements to retain forests) (2) Restoring lost carbon pools Reducing REDD degradation (“second D”) (through various forms of sustainable/multiple-use forest management such as sustainable timber yield management, community Enhancing existing forest management; PES in the form of Increase CO2 Increase CO2 (degraded) forests REDD Plus credits per ton carbon sequestered, sequest ‐ ‐ sequest (restoration of lost ecological restoration of degraded ration ration carbon pools) forests) (removals of (removals of CO2) CO2) Creating new CDM A/R (3) Creating new carbon pools forests (outside forests) ( through planted forest; agroforestry; and tree cover rehabilitation of degraded lands; agro- sylvo-pastoral systems
(1) Committing forests as carbon pools 100 tC/ha 65 tC/ha Unlogged forest Production forest Forest Deforested Reducing/Avoiding Deforestation (land-use change) ‐‐‐‐‐‐ Sustainable use of existing forest: � 3.76 GtCO2e per year, about 77 GtCO2e until 2030 REDD � • REDD 3.76 GtCO2e per year, about 77 GtCO2e until 2030 • • In production forests: carbon gain through In production forests: carbon gain through silvicultural silvicultural mgtm mgtm. . • � 6.6 GtCO2e until 2030 � 6.6 GtCO2e until 2030
(2) Restoring lost carbon pools Carbon +++ + Deforestation Protective functions +++ + (land-use change) Biodiversity +++ + 100 tC/ha 65 tC/ha 25 tC/ha Unlogged forest Production forest Degraded forest Forest Restoration = Forest Degradation Forest Degradation Carbon sequestration in forested areas Forest Restoration Process Forest Restoration Process � estimated at 117 GtCO2e up to 2030 Sustainable Forest Management
(3) Creating new carbon pools 100 tC/ha 65 tC/ha 25 tC/ha Semi-natural forest ‐‐‐‐‐‐ Planted forests & Agroforestry: Carbon sequestration � included in A/R CDM � min. 18.7 GtCO2e up to 2030
Deforestation � Forest Degradation Process � (land-use change) 100 tC/ha 65 tC/ha 25 tC/ha Unlogged forest Production forest Degraded forest ------ Sustainable use of existing forest: REDD � � 3.76 GtCO2e per year, about 77 GtCO2e until 2030 3.76 GtCO2e per year, about 77 GtCO2e until 2030 REDD � 6.6 GtCO2e until 2030 . � Silvicultural Silvicultural Mgtm Mgtm. 6.6 GtCO2e until 2030 A carbon potential ------ Forest Restoration: Carbon sequestration � Not clearly considered as a mitigation option yet worth several � estimated at � estimated at 117 GtCO2e up to 2030 117 GtCO2e up to 2030 billion US$ ------ Plantations & Agroforestry: Carbon sequestration � included in A/R CDM � min. 18.7 GtCO2e up to 2030 � min. 18.7 GtCO2e up to 2030
Forest- -based mitigation potential (REDD) based mitigation potential (REDD) Forest Forest-based mitigation potential (REDD) Other regions Other regions 2,8 MtCO 2 e/yr 2,8 MtCO 2 e/yr 2,0 MtCO 2,0 MtCO 2 2 e/yr e/yr Northern Dry Africa Northern Dry Africa 1,2 MtCO 2 e/yr 1,2 MtCO 2 e/yr Central America & Mexico Central America & Mexico 1,0MtCO 2 e/yr 1,0MtCO 2 e/yr 3,1 MtCO 2 e/yr 3,1 MtCO 2 e/yr South East Asia and Pacifi South East Asia and Pacifi Western & Central Africa Western & Central Africa 2,5 MtCO 2 e/yr 2,5 MtCO 2 e/yr 14,2 MtCO 14,2 MtCO 2 2 e/yr e/yr South America South America 9,9 MtCO 2 e/yr 9,9 MtCO 2 e/yr 7,3 MtCO 2 e/yr 7,3 MtCO 2 e/yr 21,8 MtCO 2 e/yr 21,8 MtCO 2 e/yr 6,4 MtCO 2 e/yr 6,4 MtCO 2 e/yr 14,8 MtCO 2 e/yr 14,8 MtCO 2 e/yr Eastern and Southern Africa Eastern and Southern Africa 5,0 MtCO 2 e/yr 5,0 MtCO 2 e/yr 3, 7 MtCO 2 3, 7 MtCO 2 e/yr e/yr Total potential REDD Total potential REDD oo Potential REDD with an opportunity cost < U$ 3, oo Potential REDD with an opportunity cost < U$ 3,
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