The Renewable Energy Resources of Iceland and Their Extended Future - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 44th International Universities’ Power Engineering Conference, September, 1-4, 2009, Glasgow, Scotland The Renewable Energy Resources of Iceland and Their Extended Future Utilization by Egill Benedikt Hreinsson Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Iceland, Hjardarhagi 6, Reykjavik, (Iceland) Email: egill@hi.is 1

Presentation overview • Introduction • Iceland: Renewable energy resources • Extended utilization – Examples, scenarios • Discussion and conclusion 2

Introduction (1) • Large reserves of renewable energy resources – Hydro / geothermal – Deep drilling and superheated geothermal steam – Oil Dragon area (Non-renewable) • Future utilization? – Electrification of the transport sector – Export by HVDC cable – New Aluminium – IT servers and other industry 3

Introduction (2) • Official energy demand forecasts – Electricity (hydro / geothermal) – Geothermal heat (non-electric) – Oil and fossil fuel use (transport sector and other uses) • Scenarios with additional extensive utilisation – Match or link the above basic demand forecasts with future extended energy use scenarios • How extensive burden will such scenarios be on the energy resources? 4

Electricity demand forecasts • Available from 1976 and presently show forecasts to 2030 • Shows already negotiated Energy Intensive Industry (EII, aluminum, etc. as of 2008) • Electrical energy demand increase is projected from 12 (2007) to 19 TWh/yr (2030). Mostly EII - breakdown in 2030 is approximately: – 13 TWh/yr for EII – 5 TWh/yr for residential and small industry – ~ 1 TWh/yr in losses – 19 TWh/yr TOTAL 5

ELECTRICITY FORECAST FOR GENERAL USAGE AND ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRY Secondary Energy Year Firm energy Trans- energy Intensive mission Total other than other than Industry EII losses EII EII 6

ICELAND: GEOTHERMAL ENERGY FORECAST See the legend Total Annual (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) PJ/yr GWh/yr Growth (7) Year 2001 16.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 21.5 5970.6 2005 16.9 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.7 1.0 23.0 6387.1 1.70% 2010 18.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 2.0 1.7 25.7 7136.9 2.24% 2015 19.7 1.4 1.9 0.6 2.1 1.8 27.5 7636.8 1.36% 2020 21.0 1.5 2.1 0.6 2.5 1.8 29.5 8192.2 1.41% 2025 22.0 1.6 2.3 0.6 2.8 1.9 31.2 8664.2 1.13% 2030 22.8 1.7 2.4 0.6 3.1 1.9 32.5 9025.3 0.82% Legend: 1 PJ=1/3.6 TWh=277 GWh (1) Space heating (2) Swimming pools (3) Snow melting (4) Horticulture (5) Fish farming (6) Industry etc (7) Annual growth in the prevous 4-5 year period 7

ICELAND: OIL USAGE AND FORECAST 1993-2050 Summary Breakdown Fishing fleet (domestic) • Land Annual increase (%) Ships/ vessels (Int'l) International useage vehicles are Air transport (Int'l) TOTAL oil Import Fishing fleet (Int'l) Residential usage Energy intensive Domestic useage a large part Land Vehicles Ships; vessels of total the Air transport imported TOTAL TOTAL Services Industry oil/gas Losses Year • Figures are shown in 93 655 62 31 655 1993 563 11 666 12 244 69 210 8 19 1 0 0 thousand 2000 563 198 762 129 17 762 13 774 8 227 63 252 9 4 1 0 52 -0,1% metric 2005 577 169 746 1 746 13 758 4 198 45 308 8 7 0 6 35 134 -3,6% 2010 558 224 781 5 781 tonnes per 13 795 2 141 28 355 9 16 1 5 62 157 0,6% 2015 560 258 818 5 818 year. 14 832 2 144 26 358 9 16 1 5 61 192 0,8% 2020 534 291 824 5 824 14 838 1 170 26 306 9 15 1 5 60 226 -1,4% 2025 498 324 821 6 821 13 835 1 196 28 241 10 15 1 5 60 258 -0,1% 2030 512 357 869 6 869 14 883 1 197 28 257 10 15 1 5 60 291 1,1% 2035 520 387 907 6 907 15 922 1 189 26 273 11 15 1 4 60 321 0,9% 2040 507 413 921 6 921 15 936 1 178 24 274 11 15 1 4 60 347 0,3% 2045 476 432 907 7 907 15 922 1 160 22 262 11 15 1 4 60 365 -0,3% 2050 422 436 858 7 858 14 871 1 135 20 236 11 15 1 4 60 369 -1,1% 8

TABLE IV SUMMARY OF ENERGY PROJECTED USAGE 2000-2050 Geo- • Assumptions: Electric thermal Energy • 1 thousand tonnes of Year energy energy in oil TOTAL (TWh/year) oil= 42 TJ 2000 7.7 6.0 8.9 22.5 =42/3.6=11.6 GWh 2005 8.7 6.4 8.7 23.7 • 2000: 762.000 t of oil 2010 17.4 7.1 9.1 33.6 equals 8.9 TWh/yr 2015 17.8 7.6 9.5 35.0 2020 18.3 8.2 9.6 36.1 • 2050: 858.000 t of oil 2025 18.8 8.7 9.6 37.0 equals 10.0 TWh/yr 2030 19.3 9.0 10.1 38.4 2035 20.0 9.5 10.5 40.0 2040 20.5 10.0 10.7 41.2 2045 21.0 10.5 10.6 42.1 2050 21.5 11.0 10.0 42.5 9

SUMMARY OF PROJECTED ENERGY FRACTIONAL USE 2000-2050 Geo- • Oil’s importance Electric thermal Energy Year energy energy in oil TOTAL will be reduced (%) somewhat , i.e. 2000 34% 27% 39% 100% 2005 37% 27% 37% 100% from about 37% 2010 52% 21% 27% 100% of the total share 2015 51% 22% 27% 100% in 2005 to about 2020 51% 23% 27% 100% 2025 51% 23% 26% 100% 23% in 2050. 2030 50% 23% 26% 100% 2035 50% 24% 26% 100% 2040 50% 24% 26% 100% 2045 50% 25% 25% 100% 2050 51% 26% 23% 100% 10

Scenarios • Scenario 1: Medium transport electrification – 50% of the land vehicles replaced by electric transportation by 2035 with indigenous renewable energy • Scenario 2: Heavy transport electrification – 90% of the land vehicles replaced by electric transportation by 2035 indigenous renewable energy. • Scenario 3: Heavy transport electrification plus extensive export/new load – In addition we assume new load (e.g. HVDC cable export) from 2020 of 100MW (0.8 TWh/yr), from 2025 of additional 500MW (4 TWh/yr) and from 2035 an additional 700 MW (5.6 TWh/yr). Total of 1300 MW 11

SCENARIO 1: MEDIUM TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION 2000-2050 Total: col (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (1)... Deducted New Added Geo- Oil Re- % util- to... Example shows in energy-Land electr. sourc- ized 50% th. based (6) 2035 that 50% of the vehicles X ) load TOTAL es ( Year of (5) energy demand for land TWh/yr TWh/yr (%) TWh/yr (%) vehicles is 1.6 TWh/yr 2000 7.7 8.9 8.9 25.4 77.7 33% (“energy contents”) 2005 8.7 6.4 8.7 23.7 75.1 32% Only 0.8 TWh is 2010 17.4 0.0 7.1 9.1 2% -0.1 0.0 33.6 76.1 44% needed for the 2015 17.8 0.1 7.6 9.5 5% -0.2 0.0 34.9 76.9 45% corresponding electric 2020 18.3 0.4 8.2 9.6 20% -0.7 0.0 35.7 77.1 46% vehicles due to greater 2025 18.8 0.4 8.7 9.6 30% -0.8 0.0 36.6 77.4 47% efficiency. The total 2030 19.3 0.6 9.0 10.1 40% -1.2 0.0 37.8 77.9 49% demand is then 39.3 2035 20.0 0.8 9.5 10.5 50% -1.6 0.0 39.3 78.5 50% TWh/yr which is about 2040 20.5 1.0 10.0 10.7 60% -1.9 0.0 40.3 78.8 51% 50% of the resources 2045 21.0 1.1 10.5 10.6 70% -2.1 0.0 41.0 78.9 52% of 78.5 TWh/yr 2050 21.5 1.1 11.0 10.0 80% -2.2 0.0 41.4 78.8 53% X ): This column adds the electric resources (60 TWh/yr) ( and other use, i.e. [Col. (3)+(4)+(5)] 12

SCENARIO 2: HEAVY TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION 2000-2050 Total: cols. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (1)... Deducted New Similar results for scenario Added Geo- Oil Re- % util- to... energy-Land electr. sourc- ized 50% th. based (6) 2 in 2035: This example vehicles X ) load TOTAL es ( shows now that 90% of Year of (5) energy TWh/yr TWh/yr (%) TWh/yr (%) the demand for land 2000 7.7 8.9 8.9 25.4 77.7 33% vehicles is 2.9 TWh/yr 2005 8.7 6.4 8.7 23.7 75.1 32% (“energy contents”) and 2010 17.4 0.0 7.1 9.1 2% -0.1 0.0 33.6 76.1 44% the oil import is reduced 2015 17.8 0.1 7.6 9.5 5% -0.2 0.0 34.9 76.9 45% by this amount 2020 18.3 0.4 8.2 9.6 20% -0.7 0.0 35.7 77.1 46% Only 1.4 TWh/yr for 2025 18.8 0.7 8.7 9.6 50% -1.4 0.0 36.3 76.8 47% electric vehicles due to 2030 19.3 1.2 9.0 10.1 80% -2.4 0.0 37.2 76.7 49% greater efficiency. The 2035 20.0 1.4 9.5 10.5 90% -2.9 0.0 38.6 77.2 50% total demand is then 38.6 2040 20.5 1.4 10.0 10.7 90% -2.9 0.0 39.8 77.8 51% TWh/yr which is still 2045 21.0 1.4 10.5 10.6 90% -2.7 0.0 40.7 78.3 52% about 50% of the 2050 21.5 1.2 11.0 10.0 90% -2.5 0.0 41.2 78.5 53% resources of 77.2 TWh/yr X ): This column adds the electric resources (60 TWh/yr) ( and other use, i.e. [Col. (3)+(4)+(5)] 13

SCENARIO 3 .HEAVY TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION PLUS EXTENSIVE EXPORT/NEW LOAD 2000-2050 Total: cols. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (1)... Deducted New Added Geo- Oil Re- % util- to... energy-Land electr. Similar results for sourc- ized 50% th. based (6) vehicles X ) load TOTAL es ( scenario 3 in 2035 but Year of (5) energy TWh/yr TWh/yr (%) TWh/yr (%) with added 1300 MW 2000 7.7 8.9 8.9 25.4 77.7 33% of extended demand, 2005 8.7 6.4 8.7 23.7 75.1 32% the figures have 2010 17.4 0.0 7.1 9.1 2% -0.1 0.0 33.6 76.1 44% changed somewhat 2015 17.8 0.1 7.6 9.5 5% -0.2 0.0 34.9 76.9 45% 2020 18.3 0.4 8.2 9.6 20% -0.7 0.8 36.5 77.1 47% 2025 18.8 0.7 8.7 9.6 50% -1.4 4.8 41.1 76.8 54% 2030 19.3 1.2 9.0 10.1 80% -2.4 4.8 42.0 76.7 55% 2035 20.0 1.4 9.5 10.5 90% -2.9 10.4 49.0 77.2 64% 2040 20.5 1.4 10.0 10.7 90% -2.9 10.4 50.2 77.8 64% 2045 21.0 1.4 10.5 10.6 90% -2.7 10.4 51.1 78.3 65% 2050 21.5 1.2 11.0 10.0 90% -2.5 10.4 51.6 78.5 66% X ): This column adds the electric resources (60 TWh/yr) ( and other use, i.e. [Col. (3)+(4)+(5)] 14