The Public’s Response to Biological Terrorism: A Possible Scenario Involving the Release of Anthrax in an Unidentified Location Gillian SteelFisher, PhD, MSc Robert Blendon, ScD Harvard Opinion Research Program Harvard School of Public Health Funded as part of a cooperative agreement between HSPH, the National Public Health Information Coalition and the CDC
Goals and Approach • To assess how public would respond to possible scenario • What is their baseline understanding of the issue? • Would they follow recommendations? • Where would they go for information? • Differences between 2009 and 2010/11 poll: • Expanded scenario: U.S. Postal Service dispensing • Exploration of reasons for holding onto pills after obtaining them • Examination of differences between racial/ethnic groups • Telephone poll (landlines and cell phones) • Conducted December 14, 2010 to January 9, 2011 • Nationally representative random sample of adults in the United States: 1852 respondents • Oversamples of racial/ethnic minorities; Sample includes 261 who were Hispanic and 282 who were African American • Trended data from 2009 poll where questions were parallel 2 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health
How knowledgeable is the public about “inhalation anthrax”? 3 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health
Public Familiarity with the Term “Inhalation Anthrax” % of adults saying… Very familiar 20% 42% Somewhat familiar 17% Not very familiar 20% Not at all familiar 4 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Familiarity with the Term “Inhalation Anthrax”: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults in each group saying familiar… * 65% * White 22% 43% 63% * African American 20% 43% 47% 13% 34% Hispanic Very Somewhat *Statistically significantly greater than Hispanics 5 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Mistaken Belief that Inhalation Anthrax is Contagious † % of adults who are familiar with “inhalation anthrax” saying… No, not contagious 56% 28% Yes, contagious Don’t know 16% † “contagious” was defined in question as “it can be passed from person to person” *Among adults who are “very”, “somewhat familiar” or “not very” familiar with the term “inhalation anthrax” (n = 1471) 6 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Mistaken Belief that Inhalation Anthrax is Contagious: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults who are familiar with “inhalation anthrax” saying it is contagious White 25% * African American 36% Hispanic 30% *Statistically significantly greater than whites 7 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Familiarity with and Knowledge about “Inhalation Anthrax” % of adults, when asked about the term “inhalation anthrax,” saying… Familiar* with it and believe it is 45% “not contagious” Familiar with it but believe it is 22% “contagious” Familiar with it but do not know if 12% it is “contagious” 20% “Not at all familiar” with it *Adults who say they are “very,” “somewhat” or “not very familiar” with the term “inhalation anthrax” 8 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
How would the public initially react to news of anthrax cases in their city or town? 9 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health
Public Worry About Becoming Seriously Ill or Dying if Saw/Heard in News There Were Anthrax Cases in Their City or Town % of adults saying… 46% Very worried 34% Somewhat worried 13% Not very worried 6% Not at all worried 10 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Worry About Becoming Seriously Ill or Dying if Saw/Heard in News There Were Anthrax Cases in Their City or Town: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults in each group saying worried 79% 41% 38% White * 83% 55% 28% African American * 88%* 63% 25% Hispanic Very Somewhat *Statistically significantly greater than whites 11 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Beliefs about Likelihood of Becoming Seriously Ill or Dying if Exposed to Anthrax and Not Treated % of adults saying… Very likely 69% 23% Somewhat likely 4% Not very likely 2% Not at all likely 12 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Would the public believe public health officials’ statements about the antibiotic pills? 13 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health
Public Beliefs as to Whether Antibiotic Pills Used to Treat Anthrax Would Be Safe to Take % of adults saying… 32% Very safe 51% Somewhat safe 9% Not very safe 5% Not at all safe DRAFT 14 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Beliefs as to Whether Antibiotic Pills Used to Treat Anthrax Would Be Safe to Take: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults in each group saying safe * 85% * White 36% 49% 79% African American 25% 54% 78% Hispanic 23% 55% Very Somewhat *Statistically significantly greater than African Americans and Hispanics 15 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Views on the Effectiveness of Antibiotic Pills in Preventing Them from Becoming Seriously Ill or Dying if Exposed to Anthrax % of adults saying… 26% Very effective Somewhat effective 60% Not very effective 8% Not at all effective 3% DRAFT 16 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
How confident is the public in the government’s ability to deliver the antibiotic pills? 17 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health
Public Confidence that the Government has a Sufficient Supply of Antibiotic Pills % of adults saying… 21% Very confident 44% Somewhat confident 26% Not too confident 9% Not at all confident 18 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Confidence in Ability of Federal Public Health Agencies to Deliver Antibiotic Pills to Local or State Public Health Agencies % of adults saying… 13% Very confident 47% Somewhat confident 30% Not too confident 10% Not at all confident 19 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Confidence in Ability of Federal Public Health Agencies to Deliver Antibiotic Pills to Local or State Public Health Agencies: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults in each group saying confident 57% White 10% 47% * 73% ** African American 22% 51% * 59% 18% 41% Hispanic Very Somewhat *Statistically significantly greater than whites **Statistically significantly greater than whites and Hispanics 20 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Confidence in Ability of Local and State Public Health Agencies to Deliver Antibiotic Pills to the Public % of adults saying… 14% Very confident 52% Somewhat confident 26% Not too confident 8% Not at all confident 5 pp decrease in “very confident” response since 2009 poll 21 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Confidence in Ability of Local and State Public Health Agencies to Deliver Antibiotic Pills to the Public: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults in each group saying confident 65% White 12% 53% * 75% * African American 22% 53% 69% Hispanic 18% 51% Very Somewhat *Statistically significantly greater than whites 22 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Is the public likely to follow public health officials’ initial recommendations to pick up prophylactic antibiotic pills? If not, why not? 23 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health
Public Views on Whether They Would Go to a Dispensing Site to Get Antibiotic Pills for Themselves within 48 Hours of Confirmed Anthrax Cases % of adults saying… 68% Very likely 21% Somewhat likely 6% Not very likely 4% Not at all likely 24 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
Public Views on Whether They Would Go to a Dispensing Site to Get Antibiotic Pills for Themselves within 48 Hours of Confirmed Anthrax Cases: Racial/Ethnic Differences % of adults in each group saying likely White 89% 68% 21% * 94%** African American 75% 19% Hispanic 64% 26% 90% *Statistically significantly greater than Hispanics Very Somewhat **Statistically significantly greater than whites 25 Harvard Opinion Research Program, Harvard School of Public Health, December 14, 2010 – January 9, 2011.
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