The Perfect Storm: what is happening to the World ? 12 th November 2013 Imperial College Professor Sir John Beddington Oxford Martin School, Oxford University
Global food security warnings were highlighted early in 2008 High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy. Rome, 3-5 June 2008
Alternative choices • Large and small-scale irrigation projects • Precision farming • Infrastructure for development, e.g. roads for access to markets in developing countries
Climate and food security Undernourishment data versus the MDG target 2007-08 Food price spike Millions 2011 FAO Index rise Feb 2011 Extra 44m in extreme 225 poverty 175 2004 March 125 June 2012 2008 75 Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)
2020 Water Stress: Rate of Change Source: WWF
Climate change negotiations The Copenhagen Accord provided a commitment to hold the increase in global temperatures below 2 ° C. More than 70 countries submitted emissions reduction targets. However, there was no legally binding agreement. More formal UN agreement on the 2 ° C limit at Cancun in December 2010, but still no legally binding agreement Outcomes included a decision by Parties to adopt a universal ‘legal agreement’ on climate change as soon as possible and no later than 2015. So COP19… 26 November – 7 December 2012
In key ways the next 20 years are already determined The global community will have to Consumption will increase contend with a number of significant with prosperity challenges Climate change: GHG now in Urbanisation: 2010 first year Population increase: the atmosphere will drive urban population exceeded the An extra billion people rural population ~55% 2025 changes up to 2030. by 2025
Challenge: Global Population Predictions Historical progression of Global Population Total Year Interval Population 3 billion 1959 4 Billion 1974 15 years 5 Billion 1987 13 years 6 Billion 1998 11 years 7 Billion 2011 13 years 8 Billion* 2025 14 years 9 Billion* 2043 18 years Source: UN DESA – Population Division, 2011 * Denotes predicted year
Challenge : An inevitable increase in urbanisation • Impact: Developing countries will be building the Urban / rural population equivalent of a city of 1 million people every five 7000 Urban population days between now and 2050 6000 Population (millions) • Example: In Africa, by 2050 an additional 800m Rural population 5000 people are predicted to be living in cities (62% 4000 total population). 3000 2000 • Issue: Urban populations more vulnerable to 1000 shocks: natural hazards, supply of food+ utilities 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: People and the Planet, Royal Society, 2012 Increasing numbers exposed to hazards More vulnerable people Aged >65
Challenge: Urbanisation 2025 (UN DESA – Population Division, 2010)
Urban growth likely to occur in areas increasingly vulnerable to the environment People living in urban coastal flood zones in 2060 Source: Foresight Migration and Global Environmental Change 2011
State of play Water Availability Hunger Currently 884 million people lack access to clean water Water availability Land degradation: 1.5 billion Weather: 7.5 billion USD lost to depend on degrading land extreme weather in 2010 Poverty: 1.4 billion live on Waste: 1.3 billion tonnes of food wasted each year <USD1.25 / day
Dilemma: Taking people out of poverty increases consumption, further increasing demand for resources Meat consumption David MacKay - 2009 UN Human Development - High Index General food consumption - Medium - Low
Future challenge: Increasing demands on resources Current and 2030 water deficits 6900 7000 6000 - 40% 5000 2800 4500 4500 100 3 Billion m 4200 4000 Ground Ground Surface Surface 3000 Water Water 3100 Water Water Agriculture Agriculture 3500 2000 1500 Industry Industry Municipal and Municipal and domestic domestic 1000 800 900 600 700 0 Existing 2030 Withdrawal Basins with Basins with Existing supply Withdrawals deficits surplus 8 Wheat Anticipated demand Global average yield by 2050 (FAO) Maize (tonnes/ha) 4 Source: USDA PDS database 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Global temperature anomalies Expected area covered under “normal” historical conditions 0.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% PNAS, online Aug 2012 Courtesy of Tim Benton
2011: Unprecedented summer temperatures in Texas Source: John Nielson-Gammon
Increase in severe weather events Hurricane Sandy 2012, Minimum central pressure 946mb with maximum sustained winds - 80mph. Cyclone Nargis 2008 , Minimum pressure 962mb with maximum sustained winds - 135mph.
Current projections indicate 2 ° C targets will be exceeded ‘Turn Down the Heat’: World Bank/Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research for Climate Analytics 2012
Challenges up to 2030 Challenges • Population – 1 billion more people • Urbanisation – population increase concentrated in cities • A more prosperous world, but also a further strain on resources • Complex demographic trends • Migration to vulnerable areas • Climate change will be happening – a risk multiplier Overall: an increased vulnerability to shocks and pressures 2030 Source Food +38% FAO (TOWARDS 2030/2050) Water 40% gap in supply/demand Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model Energy +54% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 Emissions (GHG) +37% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030
What about the past? There has been a failure to recognise the: • value of Natural Capital to economic development • linkages between food, water and energy systems • Importance of ecosystem services
The recent past: Result of increasing food production “Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on earth, around 24% has undergone human induced soil degradation” Pie charts and map show the extent of areas of degraded land in the world and the location of degraded soils Source: UNEP 1997 and GRID Arendal 2001
Indicators of biological diversity worsening Metric adopted by the Convention of Biological Diversity
Exploiting resources: Forests
The result of increased fish production: Unsustainable fisheries Average management effectiveness • 75% of the major marine fish stocks are either depleted, overexploited or being fished at their biological limit World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002 • One billion people rely on fish as their primary protein source IFPRI 2008 • A third of the global animal production (by weight), comes from oceans, seas, rivers and lakes FAO 2006 Source: Mora et al (2009) PLoS Biology 7(6)e1000131
The result of increasing energy production: Green house gas emissions
Challenge: Ocean acidification • Oceans have absorbed around 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, altering chemical composition of the ocean • Dissolved CO 2 since 1850s has decreased Ocean pH by 0.1 (Log scale → 30% increase in acidity) Predicted pH fall from 8.1-7.8 by 2100 • Ocean pH decreasing at an unprecedented rate – species will struggle to keep up • Dissolution or inhibition of calcium carbonate formation • Calciferous species affected e.g. crustaceans, corals. • Impacts for: food security, tourism, coastal economies
Groundwater extraction Recent mapping shows significant Many aquifers have been over resources in Africa, which must be used exploited in India carefully Driptech - small plot irrigation
Challenges: Food, water and energy poverty Food security: • 925 million people go hungry • Around 1 billion people suffer from the ‘hidden hunger’ • World population is increasing by 6 million per month • An extra billion tonnes of cereals will be needed by 2030 (FAO) Water security: • 1.2 billion people live in areas affected by physical water scarcity • 1.6 billion people live in areas affected by economic water scarcity • 884 million people lack access to clean water • Poor quality water in Middle East and North Africa costs from 0.5% to 2.5% of GDP. Energy security: • Currently, 1.4bn people do not have sufficient electricity. • It is estimated that in 2030 1.2bn people will still lack access to electricity Source: FAO (2010) / WEO 2010/UNICEF 2010
Stunting
Vitamin A deficiency
Knock on effect: Political instability? Source: Bertrand and Bar-Yam 2011
Major reserves of fossil fuels Potentially huge Arctic resources US Shale oil/gas reserves having significant impact on US Bakkan formation (North Dakota) economy Coal Reserves (10 12 BTU) Comparison : • Minneapolis • Dallas
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