The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 November 9, 2010 Rob Gardner - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 November 9, 2010 Rob Gardner This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Economic and Energy Evolution As societies and technologies develop over time… … energy needs evolve as well ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 2

Economic and Energy Evolution Global Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 700 “Access to modern forms of Other Renewables energy... provides great benefits 600 Nuclear Hydro to development...” - IEA 500 Gas “... adoption of cleaner and more reliable 400 forms of energy is... key to achieving many 300 of the Millennium Development Goals.” Oil - United Nations 200 100 Coal Biomass 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 3 Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil

Economic Growth Continues GDP GDP Growth 2005 to 2030 Trillion 2005$ Trillion 2005$ 25 Other Non OECD Other Non OECD 100 Africa Africa Middle East Middle East 20 80 Latin America Latin America India Other Other 15 60 China Other OECD 10 40 Europe OECD United 5 20 China States United States 0 0 Non OECD OECD 1980 2005 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 4

Expansion Economies Drive Demand OECD Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 450 450 Other 300 300 Africa Middle East Other Latin America 150 150 India Europe OECD China United States 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 5

Efficiency Key to Meeting Demand Demand Demand Demand Energy Intensity Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs MBTU/2005$k GDP 1000 1000 30 25 800 800 Energy Savings ~300 20 600 600 15 400 400 10 1980 2005 200 200 5 2030 0 0 0 1980 1980 2005 2005 2030 2030 OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 6

Global Demand By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 700 700 Renewables Res/Comm 600 600 Biomass 500 500 Nuclear Industrial 400 400 Coal 300 300 Power Generation Gas 200 200 100 100 Oil Transportation 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 7

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 250 World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2% 0.7% 200 2.0% 2030 150 0.7% 100 2005 2.3% 0.4% 50 2.1% 9.9% 0 Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 8

Diverse Fuel Mix Meets Demand Primary Energy Renewables Wind, Solar, & Biofuels Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 700 90 20 600 Wind, Solar, Renewables & Biofuels 15 500 Solar Nuclear 60 Hydro Geo 400 Coal 10 300 Gas 30 Wind 200 Biomass 5 100 Oil Biofuels 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 9

Technologies for GHG Reduction gasoline internal combustion engine from crude oil – well-to-wheels basis gasoline crude crude crude refining product storage retail vehicle transportation recovery to products & transportation site production of fuel Consumers’ use of fuel 20% GHG/mile 80% GHG/mile technologies for fuel production technologies for consumers’ use of fuel shorter-term shorter-term • energy efficiency • conventional vehicle technology improvements • flare reduction − engines (e.g. adv. lubricants); efficient transmissions • cogeneration − others (e.g. tire liners, low weight plastics) • advanced vehicles longer-term − hybrid (e.g. lithium ion battery materials) • second generation bio-fuels − advanced diesel • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) longer-term • breakthrough vehicles − “HCCI” or “CAI”; fuel cell (e.g. on-board H 2 generator) − plug-in hybrid and EV (e.g. lithium ion battery materials) ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 10 Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005

Many bio-energy pathways emerging power electricity plant and heat sun anerobic bio-gas conversion + biomass CO 2 methanol gasification MTG gasoline unit + water cellulosic pre- hydrolysis fermentation ethanol treatment algae gasoline bio-oil bio-oil production conversion diesel ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 11

Algae-based biofuels • benefits of using algae for biofuels production: – can be grown using land and water unsuitable for food production – potentially yield greater volumes of biofuels per acre than other biofuel sources – could be used to manufacture biofuels similar to today’s transportation fuels – growing algae consume CO 2 ; algae-based biofuels could provide GHG mitigation benefits versus conventional fuels Sunlight Carbon Water Algae More Algae Oxygen Dioxide Containing Hydrocarbons • ExxonMobil alliance with Synthetic Genomics Inc – focus on development of advanced biofuels from photosynthetic algae – complements ExxonMobil’s ongoing efforts to advance breakthrough technologies to meet the world’s energy challenges ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 12

Technologies for GHG Reduction gasoline internal combustion engine from crude oil – well-to-wheels basis gasoline crude crude crude refining product storage retail vehicle transportation recovery to products & transportation site production of fuel Consumers’ use of fuel 20% GHG/mile 80% GHG/mile technologies for fuel production technologies for consumers’ use of fuel shorter-term shorter-term • energy efficiency • conventional vehicle technology improvements • flare reduction − engines, transmissions, body and accessories • cogeneration • advanced vehicles − hybrids, advanced diesel engines longer-term • second generation bio-fuels longer-term • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) • breakthrough vehicles − “HCCI” or “CAI”; hydrogen fuel cells − plug-in hybrid, battery electric vehicles ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 13 Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005

Liquids Support Growing Demand Liquids Supply Liquids Supply Average Growth / Yr. MBDOE MBDOE 2005 – 2030 120 120 0.8% 2030 Liquids Demand OPEC 90 90 Non-OPEC ~36 ~35 2005 Biofuels Biofuels ~29 ~27 60 60 OPEC Crude NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Canadian Oil Sands 30 30 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 0 0 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 Supply ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 14

Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 100% Personal Hybrid Passenger Canals Vehicles Flights Vehicle 75% Railways & Road Deepwater Rail Freight Steamships Freight & Arctic Coal Shale Gas Electrification Air Conditioning 50% Mining & Oil Sands Wood & Oil Prod & Natural Gas Coal Wind Refining in Homes Heating 25% Cell Nuclear Telegraph Telephone Phones & Power PCs 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook Energy Information Agency 15

In thirty minutes today… The world used enough Residential electricity jet fuel to make 240 demand is equal to transatlantic flights. 1,100 Hoover Dams. The world produced 1.3 million personal enough steel to build vehicles filled their gas 10 Eiffel Towers. tanks. The world used enough World gas consumption electricity to power could fill 70,000 hot-air London for 8 days. balloons. ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 16

Development Challenges and Solutions Increase World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow Efficiency 8 billion people 100% increase in global GDP 35% increase in energy demand Technology 300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed Mitigate Expand Emissions Supplies ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 17

ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 18

Algae-based biofuels – key challenges • ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics will develop innovative solutions to the challenges of large scale production and commercialization of algae-based biofuels – identifying and developing algal strains that achieve high bio-oil yields at lower cost – determining the best production systems for growing algal strains – developing integrated systems required for full scale, economic production of biofuels • if successful, algae-based biofuels could help augment the world’s transportation fuel supply and assist in reducing greenhouse gas emissions ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook 19