Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Modeling updates in the transportation sector For AEO2016 Working Group March 09, 2016 | Washington, DC By Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, Mark Schipper, and David Stone Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 • New regional stock model for on-road vehicles – Reflects Polk annual data for cars, light trucks, Class 2B, Class 3, Class 4-6, and Class 7&8 vehicles through 2014 by Census Division (CD) – Incorporates revisions to fleet and household vehicle allocations • Revised and updated travel model for LDVs – Updated historical population, licensed driver and travel data – Restructured age cohort for licensed driver to align with travel data – Re-estimated parameters in travel demand equations • International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) emission control and efficiency standards -- vessels operating in Emission Control Areas (ECA) – Reflect ship efficiency improvements, shipping demand changes, and fuel price fluctuations – Incorporates standards impacting technology and fuel choices as compliance pathways; with growth tied to U.S. trade flows AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 2 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (continued) • Updated historical sales shares for cars and light trucks • Updated historical AFV sales for LDVs – Choice model re-calibrated to reflect historical sales data for FFVs, Diesels, HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs – Includes behavior adjustments to reflect current issues associated with diesel vehicle sales and expected recovery • Incorporates latest California ZEV mandates – Includes Section 177 (CAA) states adopting all California emission regulations: • CD1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont • CD2: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania • CD5: Maryland • CD9: Oregon • Updated CAFE compliance for model years 2009-14 AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 3 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
ZEV mandates AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 4 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Battery electric vehicle sales thousands 2014 600 History Projections 500 AEO2016 400 300 200 100 AEO2015 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 5 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Plug-in hybrid vehicle sales thousands 2014 450 History Projections 400 AEO2016 350 300 250 200 150 AEO2015 100 50 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 6 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Hybrid vehicle sales thousands 2014 1,200 History Projections 1,000 AEO2016 800 AEO2015 600 400 200 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 7 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Natural gas vehicle sales thousands 2014 90 History Projections 80 AEO2016 70 60 50 40 30 20 AEO2015 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 8 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Fuel cell vehicle sales thousands 2014 120 History Projections AEO2016 100 80 60 40 20 AEO2015 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 9 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Electric vehicle stocks millions 2014 8 History Projections 7 6 5 AEO2016 4 3 2 1 AEO2015 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 10 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Other ZEV effected vehicle stocks in 2040 millions 14 12 10 8 AEO2015 6 AEO2016 4 2 0 PHEV HEV NGV FCV Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 11 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Fuel economy AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 12 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Car sales as a percent of new light-duty vehicle sales 2014 70% History Projections 60% AEO2016 50% AEO2015 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 13 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
New car fuel economy lower in history miles per gallon (mpg) 2014 55.0 History Projections 50.0 45.0 40.0 AEO2015 AEO2016 35.0 30.0 25.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 14 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
New light-duty truck fuel economy lower in history miles per gallon (mpg) 2014 45.0 History Projections 40.0 35.0 AEO2015 30.0 AEO2016 25.0 20.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 15 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Vehicle stock update AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 16 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Gasoline light-duty vehicle stock – cars millions 2014 140 History Projections 135 130 125 AEO2015 120 115 AEO2016 110 105 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 17 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Gasoline light-duty vehicle stock – light trucks millions 2014 110 History Projections 105 AEO2016 100 95 90 AEO2015 85 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 18 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Gasoline commercial light truck vehicle stocks thousands 2014 12,000 History Projections 10,000 AEO2016 8,000 6,000 AEO2015 4,000 2,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 19 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Diesel commercial light truck vehicle stocks thousands 2014 9,000 History Projections 8,000 7,000 AEO2016 6,000 5,000 4,000 AEO2015 3,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 20 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Light-medium-duty vehicle (Class 3) stocks millions 2014 7 History Projections 6 AEO2016 5 4 AEO2015 3 2 1 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 21 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Medium-duty vehicle (Class 4-6) stocks millions 2014 6 History Projections 5 AEO2016 4 AEO2015 3 2 1 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 22 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Heavy-duty vehicle (Class 7-8) stocks millions 2014 8 History Projections 7 AEO2015 6 AEO2016 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 23 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
Marine vessels AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 24 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
MARPOL impacts fuel choice in ECA int’l shipping sulfur ppm trillion btu 50,000 1,200 Outside ECA SOx standard 45,000 1,000 40,000 LNG 35,000 800 Outside ECA 30,000 SOx standard with 2025 extension 25,000 600 Residual fuel oil 20,000 Inside ECAs 400 15,000 10,000 200 Distillate fuel oil 5,000 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Sources: International Maritime Organization and Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting 25 Washington, DC, March 9, 2016
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