The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 Rob Gardner International Energy Forum 15 May 2010 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10 -K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Importance of Energy 2
Your Energy Use EU North America MENA Household Direct 240,000 BTUs Energy Use Personal Industry Vehicle per day Indirect Public Energy Use Buildings Commercial Transport Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Pacific 3
Our Key Energy Challenges • Reducing poverty and improving living standards • Supporting economic growth • Minimizing impacts on the environment • Maintaining energy security Development of reliable and affordable energy – plus ongoing efficiency gains – are essential to meeting these challenges... 4
Challenge: Meeting Basic Needs Electricity Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels Available Available ~ 2.5 Billion People with ~1.5 Billion no Modern People with no Cooking/Heating Fuels Electricity 2006 World Bank 5
Global Economics and Energy Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 10 100 700 Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 600 0.9% 2.7% 1.2% 8 80 500 6 60 400 300 4 40 200 2 20 100 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 6
MENA Economics and Energy Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 0.5 3 60 Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 1.5% 3.8% 2.6% 50 0.4 2 40 0.3 30 0.2 1 20 0.1 10 0.0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 7
Growing Global Demand By Sector Quadrillion BTUs 2005 – 2030 300 2030 200 2005 100 0 Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 8
Global Transportation Demand By Sector Personal vs. Commercial MBDOE MBDOE 70 25 Rail 60 20 Marine 50 Commercial Aviation 2005 15 40 Heavy Duty 2030 30 Vehicles 10 20 Personal 5 Light Duty 10 Vehicles Non OECD OECD 0 0 1980 2005 2030 Personal Commercial 9
Personal Vehicle Fleet is Growing Vehicle Penetration Fleet by Car Type Cars and Population (millions) Million Cars 1250 US 2005 Advanced 1000 US 2030 Cars Diesel Population Europe 750 OECD 2005 Europe OECD 2030 500 Gasoline China 2005 250 China 2030 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2015 2030 10
Improving Today’s Vehicle % MPG Improvement Aero - Turbo Dynamics Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Charging Cylinder Deactivation Transmission Transmission Transmission Transmission Transmission Transmission Transmission Transmission Transmission Light Weight Materials Body & Body & Body & Body & Body & Body & Body & Body & Body & Camless Accessories Accessories Accessories Accessories Accessories Accessories Accessories Accessories Accessories Valves Improved Tires Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Continuously A/C Variable Efficiency 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 6 Speed / Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 7 Speed 11
Light Duty Vehicle Technology % Efficiency Improvement Well to Wheels Gasoline Equiv. Plug-in Hybrid vs. Conventional Vehicles $k Plug-in Hybrid Assumptions Electric Electric 20 Vehicle Vehicle 2010 2030 Battery cost, $/kWh 800 300 2010 Plug-in Plug-in 15 Hybrid Hybrid Battery replacements 0 0 (PHV) (PHV) over the vehicle life, # Electricity cost, ¢/kWh 5 5 10 Full-Hybrid & Full-Hybrid & HCCI HCCI 2030 5 $2 / gallon $4 / gallon Conventional Conventional gasoline gasoline Technology Technology 0 0 25 50 75 100 Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings Percent 12
Light Duty Vehicles Advanced Cars* Average New Car Percent of New Sales MPG 50 50 40 40 Europe OECD Europe OECD Europe OECD US US India China China 30 30 China India India US 20 20 10 10 0 0 2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030 *Full Hybrids, HCCI, PHV, EV 13
Heavy Duty Vehicles Intensity By Region BOE / 2005$ k GDP MBDOE 0.4 25 20 0.3 Non OECD Non OECD 15 0.2 10 0.1 5 OECD OECD 0.0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 14
Global Industrial Demand By Sector By Region By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 120 250 250 2030 100 200 200 Electricity/ Heat 80 2005 Biomass 150 150 Coal 60 Non OECD 100 100 Gas 40 50 50 20 Oil OECD 0 0 0 Heavy Ind Heavy Ind Chem Chem Energy Ind Energy Ind Other Other 1980 1980 2005 2005 2030 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 15
MENA Industrial Demand By Sector Industrial Intensity Quadrillion BTUs Million BTU / 1000 US$ 10 8 Heavy Industry Chemical Energy Industry Use 8 OECD Industrial 6 6 4 2030 2005 4 2 2 0 0 Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other 1980 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 16
Residential / Commercial Demand By Sector Residential Residential Energy Use Global Demand Quadrillion BTUs Billion Households MBTU / Household Quadrillion BTUs 100 70 3 150 2005 2030 60 80 2005 2030 50 Electricity/ 2 100 Heat 60 40 Solar Non OECD 30 40 Biomass 1 50 20 Coal 20 Gas 10 OECD Oil 0 0 0 0 Residential Commercial OECD Non OECD 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 17
Electricity Use is Growing Fast By Sector By Generation By Region k TWhr k TWhr 30 30 30 Transportation Other Gas Other Industry 20 20 20 Other AP Heavy Industry Coal China Other Oil 10 10 10 Commercial AP Nuclear Europe 40% Residential Renewables US 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 1980 2005 2005 2030 2030 18
Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup 2025 2009 Cents/kWhr 20 $30 per Ton CO2 $60 per Ton CO2 No CO2 Cost 15 10 5 0 Coal Coal Gas Gas Nuclear Nuclear Wind Wind Coal + CCS Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Gas + CCS Solar Solar 19
MENA Power Generation Electricity by Sector By Fuel By Region k TWhr Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 2.0 20 20 Other Other Industrial 1.5 15 15 North Africa Heavy Industry 1.0 10 10 Gas Commercial 0.5 5 5 Middle East Residential Oil 0.0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 20
Power Generation Fuel Demand United States Europe OECD Asia Pacific Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 120 120 120 100 100 100 80 80 80 Coal 60 60 60 40 40 40 Gas 20 20 20 Nuclear Oil Renewables 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 21
Global Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 700 700 Wind, Solar, Biofuels 600 600 Hydro, Geo Res/Comm Biomass 500 500 Nuclear Industrial Coal 400 400 300 300 Gas Transportation 200 200 Power Generation 100 100 Oil 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 22
MENA Energy Demand By Sector By Fuel By Region Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 60 60 60 Other 50 50 50 Res/Comm North Africa 40 40 40 Gas Industrial 30 30 30 20 20 20 Transportation Middle East 10 10 10 Power Generation Oil 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 23
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Demand Trillion 2005$ GDP Quadrillion BTUs 60 400 300 OECD 30 200 100 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 Trillion 2005$ GDP Quadrillion BTUs 60 400 300 30 200 Non OECD 100 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 24
Global Energy Demand and Supply Demand and Supply 2005 – 2030 Quadrillion BTUs 300 300 Non OECD 0.8% 2030 200 OECD 2005 1.8% 160 0.5% 100 Non OECD 2.3% 0.5% 2.2% 9.6% 0 Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Wind, Total Energy Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Wind, Total Energy Geo Geo Solar, Solar, Energy Energy Savings Savings Biofuels Growth Biofuels Growth 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 25
Global Liquids Supply Grows Global Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE 120 2030 OPEC Liquids 90 Non-OPEC Demand ~37 ~34 ~28 Biofuels ~27 2005 Supplies 60 OPEC Crude Other Petroleum Canada Oil Sands 30 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 0 Base/Adds 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Base/Adds 26
Gas Supply and Demand Balance United States Europe Asia Pacific BCFD BCFD BCFD BCMD 120 120 120 3.4 90 90 90 Imports LNG 60 60 60 1.7 Pipeline Unconventional 30 30 30 Conventional 0 0 0 0 2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030 2000 2015 2030 LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas 27 1 BCMD = ~35 BCFD
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