Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Modeling updates in the transportation sector For AEO2016 Working Group December 15, 2015| Washington, DC By Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, and Mark Schipper Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
AEO2016 Transportation Demand Model Updates • Domestic and international marine - International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) • On-road vehicles – Light duty vehicles (LDV) – Heavy duty vehicles (HDV) • Side cases AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 2 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
MARPOL impacts fuel and technology choice • MARPOL emission controls and fuel standards – Reflect enacted standards for domestic and international vessels operating in Emission Control Areas (ECA) – ECAs extends up to 200 nautical miles from coasts of the United States (March 26, 2010) – Reflect ship efficiency improvements, shipping demand changes, and fuel price fluctuations AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 3 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
MARPOL impacts fuel and technology choice • ECA fuel standard or equivalent exhaust gas cleaning devices – Sulphur at 10,000 ppm in 2010 – Sulphur at 1,000 ppm in 2015 • Global fuel standard or equivalent exhaust gas cleaning devices – Sulphur at 35,000 ppm in 2012 – Sulphur at 5,000 ppm in 2020 (subject to change based on a 2018 fuel study) Source: EIA, Marine Fuel Choice for Ocean Going Vessels within Emission Control Areas, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/transportation/marinefuel/ AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 4 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Light duty vehicle updates impact fuel usage and regional analysis • Update historical new light-duty vehicle attribute and fuel economy data through 2013 • Update light-duty vehicle stock, sales and travel demand by Census division through 2014 • ZEV mandates – Update model to reflect current ZEV mandates and credits AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 5 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Light-duty vehicle CAFE compliance miles per gallon 40 35 30 NHTSA Total Fleet 25 NHTSA Passenger Cars NHTSA Light Trucks 20 AEO2015 Total Fleet 15 AEO2015 Passenger Car AEO2015 Light Truck 10 5 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance, 2014 AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 6 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Heavy duty vehicle updates impact fuel usage and regional analysis • Update heavy-duty vehicle stock, sales and travel demand by Census division through 2014 • Heavy duty vehicle model updates – New technologies – Expand and realign compliance classifications from 13 to 20 (including trailers) – Restructure industrial output categories • Side case – Phase 2 of the MDV/HDV GHG and fuel efficiency standards • Still trying to determine how to handle trailers in model • Will be reaching out to the EPA to discuss drive cycle changes AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 7 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Percent diesel heavy duty vehicles on road by Census division percent heavy-duty vehicles by vintage 100% 90% 80% West South Central 70% East North Central South Atlantic 60% Pacific 50% West North Central 40% Mountain Middle Atlantic 30% East South Central 20% New England 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Source: 2014 Polk data AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 8 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Percent gasoline heavy duty vehicles on road by Census division percent heavy-duty vehicles by vintage 100% 90% 80% Mountain 70% West South Central South Atlantic 60% East North Central 50% Middle Atlantic 40% Pacific West North Central 30% New England 20% East South Central 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Source: 2014 Polk data AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 9 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Comments/discussion • Pressing suggestions for AEO2016 • Comments or suggestions for AEO2017 – Contact Transportation Team if interested in taking part in topical Working Group meetings next year AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 10 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
Discussion/questions Trisha Hutchins | phone: 202-586-1029 | email: patricia.hutchins@eia.gov Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 | email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov John Maples | phone: 202-586-1757 | email: john.maples@eia.gov Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136 | email: mark.schipper@eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Washington, D.C., December 15, 2015 11 Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate
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