The Energy And Power Landscape in SADC 29 September 2015
On the Agenda • Who is Frost & Sullivan • Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape • ESKOM, the utility • Department of Energy’s REIPPPP
Who is Frost & Sullivan? The Growth Consulting Company • Founded in 1961 • Over 2,000 Consultants / Analysts across 42 international locations • 10,000+ clients worldwide including emerging companies, the global 1000, and the investment community • Close relationships with: Industry Suppliers, End User Groups, Local Associations and Regulatory Bodies • Offer the exclusive Growth System including: • Growth Partnership Services & Growth Consulting • Provide comprehensive insights and services to companies that have the desire to grow • Global footprint with a presence in over 240 countries • A history of innovative and effective growth facilitation Frost & Sullivan is a leading international research and consulting company that facilitates growth around the world 3
Our Global Research Groups Frost & Sullivan Understands Markets from Multiple Perspectives Energy & Power Environ-mental Centralized Power Equipment Centralized Power Services Water & Wastewater Onsite Power / Distributed Generation Regulatory, Policy and Economic Analyses Environmental Management Renewables Waste Management Energy Management Services and Solutions Environmental Safety Transmission, Distribution and Metering Oil & Gas Equipment and Services Technologies Management HVAC&R Country mining profiles Fire & Life Safety Building Mining & Minerals Country resource profiles Building Automation Systems (BAS) • current reserves Lighting Controls & Products Performance Contracting • production levels Facility Management (I-FM) Services Mining company profiles Security Controls • competitor profiles Home Automation Sensors MES Transmitters Automation DCS Healthcare & Process Medical Devices Industrial Valves Control SCADA Pharmaceuticals Actuators HMI Healthcare IT Pumps PLCs Biotechnology Heat Exchangers PC Controls Drug Discovery Coolers Asset Management Mixers Supply chain Robotics Chemicals, Materials & IP Communications Plastics & Polymers Enterprise Communications Packaging Food ICT Telecom Services Paints & Coatings Conferencing & Collaboration Inks & Media Mobile & Wireless Communication Personal Protection Equipment Contact Centres & CRM Specialty & Fine Chemicals IT Services Civil Aviation Military Equipment Powertrain Transportation Aerospace & Automotive & Ait Traffic Managemt C4ISR Green Vehicles Defence In Flight Entertainment Soldier Modernisation Driver Assistance Systems Software and Systems Displays and Sights Navigation Systems Avionics Missiles Telematics Supply chain & Logistics Navigation Logistics & Supply Chain Battlefield Comms Rail Transportation Marine 4
Energy & Power Sector Key Focus Groups Energy & Power Supplies Centralised Distributed Power Supplies & Trans. & Distr. Green Energy Power Gen Power Gen Batteries • Cables • Gen-sets • Wind • Coal • Power Quality • Switchgear • Gas • Cogeneration/CHP • Solar • Conventional and • Transformers • Nuclear • On-site power • Marine Emerging Batteries • Meters • Power rentals • Hydro • Critical power • Alternative Energy • T&D Services • Energy services • Bioenergy Equipment (boilers, Storage • Smart Grids • MRO • Emission Reduction turbines etc.) • Services • Energy trading • Power plant services • etc. • Energy Efficiency • etc. • etc. • etc. Energy Supply and Costs Connectivity Construction Power Generation & Integration Activity Market Globalisation Global Environment Energy Demand Systems Relevant regulatory, policy and economic analyses Intelligence Carbon Reduction & Renewables 5
Southern Africa’s (SADC) Energy Landscape 6
Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape Trends shaping Southern Africa’s Power Sector Global Economic Shifts • Strong GDP growth relative Gas Finds to global markets • Relocation of manufacturing capacity • Export at first • Gradually move to local consumption Infrastructure Investment • Initial investments in distributed power gas solutions • Followed by extensive gas pipeline infrastructure development Climate Change and Carbon Neutral Investment • Gradual move away from coal as primary source • Investment in more viable solutions with lighter footprint IPP Licensing and Market Reforms • Privatisation and deregulation across the continent • Resultant increase in IPP activity 7
Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape Distribution and Energy mix in Sub Saharan Africa • As per the availability of fuel, the distribution of electricity generation varies from country to country. The equipment suppliers will need to understand the distribution to the needs of the market accordingly Distribution of generation of electricity among the major countries, 2014 Ghana Nigeria Kenya Tanzania Mozambique South Africa 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% South Africa Mozambique Tanzania Kenya Nigeria Ghana Fossil Fuels 90,4% 5,0% 37,0% 37,8% 82,0% 44,1% Nuclear Fuels 4,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Hydroelectric Plants 5,0% 95,0% 63,0% 46,2% 18,0% 55,8% Other renewable sources 0,6% 0,0% 0,0% 16,0% 0,0% 0,1% Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8
Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape Southern Africa Power Outlook - Energy Mix Power Capacity Mix, East Africa, 2030 Power Capacity Mix, East Africa, 2012 Total = 33 GW Total = 8 GW Other Renewables, Coal, 12% 12% Solar PV, 6% Oil, 18% Hydro, 50% Bioenergy, 3% RE* = 21% or 6.93 GW Oil, 50% Hydro, 40% Gas, 9% Power Capacity Mix, Southern Africa, 2030 Power Capacity Mix, Southern Africa, 2012 Total = 132 GW Total = 58 GW Other Renewables, Hydro, 16% 7% Coal, 45% Solar PV, 9% Nuclear, 3% Bioenergy, Gas, 2% 3% RE* = 19% or 25.08 GW Oil, 10% Hydro, 16% Coal, 69% Nuclear, 3% Gas, 10% Oil, 7% Note:* Excluding large hydro. Source: IEA (2014); Frost & Sullivan 9
Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape Southern Africa Power - Primary Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand, Sub-Saharan Africa, Primary Energy Demand, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000 2012 Other Other Renewables, Renewables, Coal, 18% Coal, 22% 0% 0% Oil, 15% Oil, 11% Bioenergy, Bioenergy, 61% 63% Gas, 2% Gas, 4% Nuclear, 1% Nuclear, 1% Hydro, 1% Hydro, 1% As a reflection of the poverty crippling the region, bioenergy use remains the main component of sub- Saharan African primary energy demand. Coal is the second largest, but has recently lost some percentage share to the benefit of oil and gas. According to the IEA, four out of five people in sub-Saharan Africa rely on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking. Note: Bioenergy is composed of biomass, biofuels and biogas. Solid biomass includes fuelwood and charcoal. Source: IEA, Frost & Sullivan 10
Southern Africa’s (SADC) Energy Landscape - Tanzania & Mozambique 11
Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape Economic Overview – Tanzania • The GDP of Tanzania for the year 2014 was 49.2 billion US dollar. The economy has seen a good positive growth over the period of time and is close to achieving middle income status • The GDP growth rate fluctuated from 8% in 2011 to 5% in 2012 GDP & Growth rate, Tanzania, 2010-2014 60,00 9,0% 8,0% 50,00 7,0% GDP Growth Rate (In %) GDP (in Billion USD) 40,00 6,0% 5,0% 30,00 4,0% 20,00 3,0% 2,0% 10,00 1,0% 0,00 0,0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP 30,92 33,32 38,73 43,65 49,18 Growth Rate 6,4% 7,9% 5,1% 7,3% 7,0% Source: World Bank, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 12
Southern Africa’s Energy Landscape Power Sector Overview – Tanzania • The access to electricity in Tanzania over the years has increased. For the year 1990, it was 6.8% & for the year 2010, it was 14.8%. Although the numbers are not very high, a good growth is anticipated in near future • With the recently discovered resources of natural gas , Tanzania is set to have a boom in exporting it to other countries eventually boosting its economy and electricity sector status, but it will take time to commercially generate anything out of it. • The access of electricity in urban population increased from 33.5% in 2000 to 46.4% in 2012. The status of electricity in rural areas is very poor. Only 1.7% people had access to electricity in the year 2000 which increased to 3.6% in 2012 of the total rural population . • The electricity consumption is increasing slowly with 76.5 kWh per capita of electricity consumption in the year 2013. The slow pace is due to the weaker economy and less infrastructure to provide electricity services Access to electricity, Tanzania, 2014 Electricity Consumption, Tanzania, 2009-2013 30,00% 100,00 25,00% % of Population 80,00 In KWh/Capita 20,00% 60,00 15,00% 40,00 10,00% 20,00 5,00% 0,00% 0,00 1990 2000 2010 2012 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % 6,80% 8,80% 14,80% 15,30% 24% In kwh/capita 81,35 91,48 92,16 83,34 76,50 Source: World Bank, Frost & Sullivan analysis. 13
Recommend
More recommend
