Tacoma Power Energy Risk Management/Power Supply Update Q12020 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tacoma Power Energy Risk Management/Power Supply Update – Q1’2020 Ying Hall Energy Risk Manager Todd Lloyd Assistant Power Manager, Resource Operations & Trading May 27, 2020

Power Supply Section 1

Power Supply Update Graph 1: Tacoma System Inflows (Tacoma System Hydro Inflows, Water Year 1929 – 2020) 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 Inflows (cfs) 5th-95th Percentile 14,000 Adverse 12,000 Average 10,000 2020 8,000 2020 Projection 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 3

Power Supply Update Graph 2: Federal System Inflows (Federal System Hydro Inflows, Water Year 1961 – 2020) 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 Inflows (KAF) 26,000 5th-95th Percentile 24,000 22,000 Average 20,000 18,000 2020 16,000 14,000 2020 Projection 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 4

Power Supply Update Graph 3: WY 2020 Tacoma System Inflows (Tacoma System Inflows Annual Avg., Water Year 1929 – 2020) 14,000 12,000 10,000 Adverse Inflows (cfs) 8,000 Average 1929 - 2019 6,000 2020 4,000 2,000 0 2019 2018 2015 2009 2010 2020 2013 2014 2012 2016 2011 2017 5

Power Supply Update Graph 4: Cowlitz Hydroelectric Project’s Elevation (Cowlitz Elevation, Current vs. Historic) 780 Full 760 New "Full" (Seismic Limit) 740 Projection Historic Range Cowlitz Elevation (ft) 2020 720 700 680 660 640 6

Power Supply Update Graph 5: Cushman Hydroelectric Project Elevation (Cushman Elevation, Current vs. Historic) 740.0 Full 735.0 735 ft Maximum Allowed Elevation (2020) 730.0 Historic Range 725.0 Lake Cushman Elevation (ft) 720.0 2020 715.0 Historic Average 710.0 705.0 700.0 695.0 690.0 1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/1/2020 4/1/2020 5/1/2020 6/1/2020 7/1/2020 7

Power Supply Update Graph 6: Actual versus Budgeted Sales and Purchase Volumes 600 500 400 300 200 Actual Sales aMW Budget Sales 100 Actual Purchases Budget Purchases 0 -100 -200 -300 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019 Sep-2019 Oct-2019 Nov-2019 Dec-2019 Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2020 Apr-2020 May-2020 Jun-2020 Jul-2020 Aug-2020 Sep-2020 Oct-2020 Nov-2020 Dec-2020 8

Wholesale Net Section 2 Revenues

Wholesale Net Revenues Graph 7: Actual Revenue is $26M Below Budget Biennium-To-Date (Monthly Actual vs. Budget Wholesale Purchases and Net Revenues) $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 Dollars (in Millions) $2.00 $0.00 -$2.00 -$4.00 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Actual Purchases Budget Purchases Actual Net Revenue Budget Net Revenue 10

Wholesale Net Revenues Graph 8: Lower Load Expected Due to Stay-At-Home, Recession (Moderate Recession Load Scenario) 800 700 600 500 Load (aMW) 400 300 200 100 0 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Previous Load Forecast Load Scenario - Moderate Recession 11

Wholesale Net Revenues Graph 9: High Q1 Revenues, Projections Remain Below Budget (Cumulative Actual vs. Budget Wholesale Net Revenues, 2019 – 2020) $110 Expected Water (as of $106.1 Jan. 1) $100 $90 $79.3 Adverse Water $80 (Budget) Dollars (in Millions) $70 Expected Water (Current) $60 Adverse Water $64.55 (Current) $50 $57.9 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Budget Net Revenue (Adverse Water) Net Revenue Projection (Adverse Water) Net Revenue Projection (Expected Water) - 1/1 Net Revenue Projection (Expected Water) - 5/14 Actuals 12

Wholesale Net Revenues Graph 10: Probability of Making Budget Has Increased to 13% (Risk Model Simulation of Biennial Net Revenues, 2019 – 2020) Biennium Budget $79.3M 40 5% Mean 95% $48.6M $64.5M $89.6M 30 13% probability of exceeding the Density 20 biennium budget of $79.3M 10 0 40 60 80 100 120 Wholesale Net Revenue (Million Dollars) 13