Making sense of energy in a chaotic environment by Chris Yelland - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Making sense of energy in a chaotic environment by Chris Yelland CEng www.ee.co.za

Outline  Economic and social landscape  Financial risks and issues  Power generation landscape  Chaotic planning, and the chaotic future outlook  Grid defection and the utility death spiral  Critical success factors in an uncertain world  Business continuity in a chaotic electricity environment  Energy crisis? What crisis?  Opportunities unlimited

Economic and social landscape  Low GDP growth  Rising population  Weakening currency  Increased urbanisation  Low productivity  Poor education  Low competitiveness  Skills deficit  High levels of poverty  High unemployment  Labour unrest  Poor service delivery

Financial issues and risks  Uncertainty  Rates of exchange  Interest rates  Oil and gas prices  Changing structure of SA economy  Reduced energy intensity in SA  Supply and demand forecasts and planning  Timing (economic, commodity cycle)

Power generation landscape  Over dependence on coal as primary energy source  Over dependence on Eskom as the dominant monopoly supplier  Aging fleet of coal-fired power stations  Time and cost over-runs on new mega power plants  Rising electricity prices and declining electricity demand  Shortages and surpluses of generation capacity  Eskom financial and environmental sustainability problems

Chaotic planning  No published Integrated Energy Plan (IEP)  No published Gas Utilisation Master Plan (GUMP)  Outdated Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity IRP2010-2030  Massive cost and time overruns at Medupi, Kusile and Ingula  Poor maintenance planning  Under-supply and over-capacity

The chaotic future outlook  An uncertain world with an unpredictable future  Inability to forecast electricity demand for even 5 years ahead, let alone 20, 30, 50 or 100 years  Disruptive technologies – Solar PV – Energy storage – Electric vehicles – Smart grid – ICT and Apps  Price uncertainty and the learning curve

Critical success factors in an uncertain world  From central planning to market driven  From public sector utilities to private sector  From monopolistic to competitive  From mega-projects to smaller projects  From central to distributed generation  From inflexible to flexible  From slow dinosaurs to nimble adapters  From the fossil age to the knowledge economy  Evolution and survival of the fittest

Grid defection and the utility death spiral  Rising utility electricity prices  Declining electricity demand  The electricity supply cake get smaller  Rising utility electricity prices  Grid defection  The utility share of the cake gets smaller  Rising utility electricity prices  More grid defection…

Commercial Cactus Farming in South Africa

UHURU: BIOMASS TO 55 MWE Zero Emission Cost Effective Energy Supply ELECTRICITY UHURU Process – Fermentable BioMass to Energy Fermentable BioGas Compress BioMass Digester BioGas 20 MWe +

Energy crisis? What crisis?  So do we have an energy crisis in South Africa?  We are rich in natural energy…  We are rich in human energy…  We have a youthful population with lots of unfulfilled potential…  We do NOT have an energy crisis, we have a management crisis!

Opportunity unlimited!