The consequences of climate change for EU agriculture Follow up to - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The consequences of climate change for EU agriculture Follow up to the COP21-UN Paris Climate Change Conference Kaley Hart & Ben Allen Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 1

Struc Structure of the Pre ture of the Presen sentation tation 1. Interactions between agriculture and climate 2. EU climate action and agriculture 3. The climate role of the CAP 4. Perspectives on the future 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 2

1. Interactions between agriculture & climate Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 3 11/04/2017

Agriculture Agri culture affected affected by by the clim the climate ate Pressures on farming systems  Temperature variations  Water availability  Water quality  Pests and disease  Fire risk  Storm damage 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 4

Agri Agriculture culture ’ s s impac impact t on the climate on the climate Affects climate change:  Emissions of GHGs – directly and indirectly  Removal of GHGs from the atmosphere – carbon sequestration  Contributions to reductions in other sectors (e.g. renewable energy) 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 5

Agri Agricultural cultural GH GHG emissions G emissions (C (CO 2 /non /non-CO CO 2 ) 38.0% Soils 15.4% Manure 42.9% Enteric fermentation 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 6

GHG GHG e emissions missions from agriculture from agriculture including including agricultu agricultural ral soils soils (croplan (cropland d and and grass grassland), by Membe land), by Member S r State, tate, 2014 2014 14/03/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 7

Agri Agriculture culture ’ s s contribution to GHG contribution to GHG emission emissions (C s (CO 2 & non CO & non CO 2 )  Significant variation by Others country 11.3% Agriculture 29.3%  Agriculture ’ s Energy supply contribution will become more significant over 11.5% time Residential & commercial  FR, DE, UK make up 19.2% ~44% of all agricultural Transport 19.0% emissions Industry 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 8

Agri Agriculture culture ’ s s contribution to GHG contribution to GHG emission emissions (C s (CO 2 & non CO & non CO 2 )  Agriculture ’ s contribution will become more significant over time  FR, DE, UK make up ~44% of all agricultural emissions 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 9

2. EU Climate action & agriculture 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 10

EU C EU Climate Action & Agriculture (2020) limate Action & Agriculture (2020) Global framework: The Kyoto Protocol EU framework: 2020 climate & energy framework EU Actions Accounting and Reporting: • Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) • Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF) • Emissions Trading System (ETS) Emission reduction, removals & adaptation: • Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) • Renewable Energy Directive (RED) • Water Framework Directive (WFD) • National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD) • etc. 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 11

EU C EU Climate Action & Agriculture (2030) limate Action & Agriculture (2030) Global framework: The Paris Agreement EU framework: 2030 climate & energy framework EU Actions Accounting and Reporting: • Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) • Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF) • Emissions Trading System (ETS) Emission reduction, removals & adaptation: • Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) • Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) • Water Framework Directive (WFD) • National Emissions Ceiling Directive (NECD) • etc. 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 12

The Paris The Paris Agreement Agreement & EU & EU framework framework Mitigation:  Targets for emission reductions  40% by 2030 (Global and EU ambition)  80% by 2050 (EU Low carbon transition) Adaptation:  Submit and update adaptation communications  implementation and support needs;  Priorities;  plans and actions. 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 13

EU Accounting EU Accou nting and and reporting reporting Mechanism 2020 2030 ESD: Cross sector Cross sector targets  Non-CO 2 emissions from target increased agriculture  Explicitly excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF LULUCF: Excluded from Included within  CO 2 emissions from cropland and CC&E CC&E grazing land management. framework No-debit rule But LULUCF Decision requires some action EU-ETS:  N 2 O emissions from fertiliser manufacturing  Large bioenergy facilities  Zero carbon rating of biomass 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 14

EU Accou EU Accounting nting and and reporting reporting Share (%) of agriculture (non CO2) in ESD emissions in 2015 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 15

EU Accou EU Accounting nting and and reporting reporting GHG reduction targets for 2020 set out in the ESD and for 2030 in the proposed ESR 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 16

Mitigation actions Mitigation actions in a in agriculture griculture Mitigation actions • Reduced tillage • Zero tillage • Leaving crop residues on the soil surface • Ceasing to burn crop residues and vegetation • Use cover/catch crops • Livestock disease management • Use of sexed semen for breeding dairy replacements • Breeding lower methane emissions in ruminants • Feed additives for ruminant diets • Optimised feeding strategies for livestock • Soil and nutrient management plans • Use of nitrification inhibitors • Improved nitrogen efficiency • Biological N fixation in rotations and in grass mixes • Carbon auditing tools • Improved on-farm energy efficiency • Conversion of arable land to grassland to sequester carbon in the soil • New agroforestry • Wetland/Peatland conservation/restoration • Woodland planting 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 17

3. The climate role of the Common Agricultural Policy 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 18

Cl Climate imate and and the C the CAP AP  CAP has 2014-2020 considerable potential to advance climate action on agricultural (and forest) land  Climate objectives have become more prominent in the CAP over time 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 19

Cl Climate imate Acti Action on in practice vi in practice via the C a the CAP AP Main CAP measures with climate potential:  Cross-compliance GAEC standards  Farm Advisory System  Pillar 1 green direct payments  Pillar 2 rural development measures (land management, investments, advice and capacity building) Achieving climate benefits in practice depends on:  the choices made by Member States in programming the CAP for 2014-20; and  the choices made by farmers within the options available to them. 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 20

Variable Variable implementa implementation tion  Minimalist approach in many MSs  Climate not a compulsory element of the Farm Advisory System  RDP budgetary allocations for climate are lower than for other objectives  Targets for climate indicators non existent in some RDPs or very low ambition. Overall Expenditure for RDPs by Strategic Priority: EU-28 2014-2020 11/04/2017 21

MS R MS RDP DP exp expend enditure iture on on climate climate compared compared to to EU avera EU average ge 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 22

RD RDP P targets targets relevant to climate relevant to climate 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 23

4. Future perspectives 11/04/2017 Presentation for the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development 24