PTOLEMUS Consulting Group The Connected Mobility Global Forecast Quantifying future connected car services April 2016 - PTOLEMUS intellectual property
PTOLEMUS in a nutshell The consulting & research firm for the connected world Our consulting services Our fields of expertise Car infotainment & navigation Strategy Investment Procurement definition assistance strategy Connected services (Traffic information, fuel prices, speed cameras, weather, parking, points of interest, social Vision creation, Strategic due Specification of networking), driver monitoring, maps, smartphone strategic diligence, requirements & integration, smartphone-, PND- or embedded navigation, positioning, market & tender documents, business plan technology launch of tenders, development, assessment, M&A, supplier negotiation Usage-based charging board coaching & post-acquisition & selection support plan Connected insurance, road charging / electronic tolling, fleet leasing & rental, car sharing, Car As A Service, etc. Innovation Business Telematics & Intelligent Transport Systems Implementation management development ADAS, connected vehicle, crowd-sourcing, fleet Deployment plans, Value proposition Partnership management, eCall, bCall, SVR, tracking, vehicle data complex project & definition, product strategies, analytics (OBD / CAN-bus), VRM, V2X, xFCD programme & services detection of management, risk development, opportunities, analysis & Positioning / Location enablement architecture design, ecosystem- mitigation strategy assistance to building, response launch to tenders M2M & connectivity 2 PTOLEMUS
PTOLEMUS in a nutshell We help clients across the mobility ecosystem… Mobile telecom operators Analytics providers Automotive manufacturers & suppliers ITS operators, regulators & fleets Telematics solution providers Applications providers Insurers, aggregators & assistance providers Banks & private equity investors ������������������������� ���� Device / location suppliers ������� �������� ���� ���������������������� ���������� ���� ������������������ ���� ���� ����������������� ���� �������������������������� �������� ���� ������������������ ���� �������������� ����������� ���� ����������������� ���� ���� ����������� ������������ ����� ����������� ����� ������������ ���� ���������������������� ���� �������������������������� 3 PTOLEMUS
What triggered this report From the automotive world to the connected mobility world “There is one rule for the “We are driving industrialist and that is: innovation in every part make the best quality of our business to be goods possible at the both a product and lowest cost possible” mobility company” Mark Fields, CEO Henry Ford, Founder 4 PTOLEMUS
Connected Mobility Forecast: key findings Cars are increasingly connected, making it easier to bring new services to drivers • The number of newly produced New connected vehicles sold globally (million) connected vehicles will double between 2015 and 2020 • Broadband is reaching the car, encouraged by mobile network operators • 4G / LTE networks are now commercially available in 143 countries • The eCall and ERA Glonass mandates in Europe and Russia will accelerate embedded connectivity in new vehicles 5 PTOLEMUS Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
Connected Mobility Forecast: key findings By 2030, connected cars will have become the norm Passenger cars with embedded connectivity in Europe (million) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 6 PTOLEMUS Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group - Note: This chart only presents connected passenger cars with embedded technology
Connected Mobility Forecast: key findings The connected share of mobility services is growing rapidly Revenue forecasts for the leasing industry • By 2020, connected car mobility services will equip 650 million cars (400 million in the aftermarket) and generate $350 billion in revenues • As exemplified with the leasing sector, the growth of the connected services will accelerate the whole sector • While most OEMs have mobility offerings, their share of the connected mobility services market will decrease • In 2020, aftermarket providers will generate 84% of all service revenues • None of the 14 services we assess will be provided individually • At the centre of this growth is the ability to access driver and car data 7 PTOLEMUS Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
Connected Mobility Forecast: key findings In a few years, mobility start-ups have become more valuable than traditional players 20 bn Toyota 15 bn Daimler GM 10 bn Allianz Alphabet 5 bn (Google) Pre-tax profits 2.5 bn 1 bn Progressive Fleetcor 500 m 250 m Octo 100 m TomTom Company age BlaBlaCar -100 m Kapsch -250 m -500 m Uber 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 120 130 140 150 Source: PTOLEMUS. Some pre-tax profits and market cap are PTOLEMUS’ own estimates 8 PTOLEMUS Size of bubble denotes market capitalisation. Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
Connected Mobility Forecast: key findings Car makers, leasers and telematics service providers offer the largest range of mobility services Presence of different stakeholders in mobility services Nav. Lease / OEM - Energy City OEMs A-TSPs RSA Tolling Insurers suppliers Rent TSPs comp. planners Car sharing Car pooling Car rental Navigation Wi-Fi hotspot SVT / SVR eCall UBI Remote diagnostics bCall Car leasing Electronic tolling Fuel card services FMS 9 PTOLEMUS Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
Forecast content The Connected Mobility Forecast examines how connectivity is revolutionising 14 car services 10 PTOLEMUS * The definition of Mobility Service Providers (MSP) and Connectivity Service Providers (CSP) varies per sector
Forecast content It brings the most comprehensive analysis of connected mobility markets ever published 220-page analysis of 14 mobility Global, regional and country-wide markets volume & revenue forecasts • The future evolution of the complete • Bottom-up forecasts of 14 connected connected mobility sector analysed services and their underlying markets • 75 charts encapsulating the essence • Revenues generated for both Mobility of the mobility market evolution Service Providers (MSPs) and their Connected Solutions Providers (CSPs) • 18 countries and areas covered • Number of connected cars by service 14 analyses of mobility services measured and forecast across 18 worldwide including global markets along with service • Delivery, service and business models penetration rates • Devices & technologies used 4,200-line market forecast output data • The value chain for each service sheet including: • Regulatory and competitive • The total addressable market in environment volume and value seen from the MSP • All major current and future market and the CSP perspective trends in each market • The total underlying volumes and • 650 stakeholders mentioned revenues by country • All key mergers & acquisitions • The volume and revenue bottom-up forecasts for MSPs and CSPs • Connectivity uptake in each region • The split between OEM and • Key volume & revenue drivers aftermarket volumes & revenues 11 PTOLEMUS
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