The Complexity of Offshore Logistics PRESENTED BY MAY2016 PROF. JEAN-DAVID CAPRACE
Deep Sea Oil Production Relies on FPSOs
Level 1/4 Offload of Oil by Transport Shuttles One offload every ~10 days for a FPSO • Ship To Ship or Tandem Offloads
Level 2/4 Installation and Support by AHTS Bollard Pull from 50 to 300 tons • And others MPSV, FSIV, OSRV, ROVs, etc.
Level 3/4 Supply of the Offshore units with PSVs >110 OSVs • >230000 tons transported per month • General cargo, Bulk and Fluids
Level 4/4 People Working at Sea by Helicopeters Maintenance Hour per Flight Hour ~5 • >45000 passengers monthly • >2250 voyages monthly
And ... Wind, Waves, Currents and Visibility Affect Operations
Today Oil Prices Are Coming Back to Lower Values Force to drastically reduce costs to be competitive 1996 2016Q1 Logistics in Campos in 2006 > 200 contracts for 2.4 BiUSD • One option is to optimize what we have …
Where we are? Where we go? Expected Return Pareto front Risk One option is to optimize what we have …
Measuring is knowing! If you can not measure it, you can not improve it! Lord Kelvin (1824-1907)
We are undertaking research on ... • Developing KPIs for Efficiency • Measuring Complexity • Simulation and Optimization Applied to Offshore Logistic, Ports, Marine transport and Shipyards
http://www.oceanica.ufrj.br/labsen/ http://www.oceanica.ufrj.br/labsen/ 10 years • 4 Professors • ~12 Students • Discrete Event Simulation • Optimization • Data Mining • Efficiency • Productivity
Offshore and Port logistic Offshore Logistic installation of Offshore Wind Farms • Combining DES and Metocean Data • Weather window and limit
Offshore and Port logistic Automatic Identification System (AIS) • Learn from past to improve the future • Statistical Distributions • Efficiencies
Collision Risk Analysis Automatic Identification System (AIS) • 6 months data
Port logistic Optimizing the lead time for new ship designs • Discrete Event Simulation • Cranes, Delays, FEU/TEU, Tide, Loading Conditions
Is it time for a major technology change? But it implies higher risks …
Where we are? Where we go? Expected Return Pareto front Risk Another option is to apply a major technology change …
FPSO ? A critical question to be addressed ... Logistic will be completely different …
Stochastic Simulations of Processes 500 iterations Probability Cost of the new alternatives
Conclusions We believe that: ◦ Simplicity – Logistics must not become too complicated ◦ Reliability and Robustness – Fastest or Cheapest is not always the best ◦ Transparency – Information must be propagated in all the nodes of the chain We will continue to improve the integration of Metocean Data and optimization algorithm in Logistic Simulation First optimizing what we have, Second find a technology jump
Thank you! The Complexity of Offshore Logistics Prof. Jean-David Caprace jdcaprace@oceanica.ufrj.br http://www.oceanica.ufrj.br/labsen/
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