Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA FWCA Workshop The Central Florida W ater I nitiative John Shearer, P.E., BCEE Shearer Consulting Inc. March 30, 2016 Orlando Utilities Commission
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA I nception to plan approval I nception to plan approval � ACTI ON PLAN 2 0 0 6 � CFW I - 2 0 1 1 � � insufficient groundwater to satisfy long term New process/ new name water needs � Collaborate with stakeholders � Need to equitably distribute remaining water � CFW I - 2 0 1 5 � Need to transition to AWS � CFCA ( 1 ) 2 0 0 8 - ■ Framework for regional cooperation ■ Single, unified RWSP for Central Florida I nterim Rules ■ Regional planning level estimate of sustainable ground water � Demands beyond 2013 met by alternate water supplies (AWS) ■ Regional consensus on the “Next Steps” � December 31, 2012 sunset � CFCA ( 2 ) 2 0 0 9 - Final � CFW I ( 2 0 1 6 Rules through 2 0 2 0 ) � Replace interim rules ■ 2016 Water Bill (HB 552) � Unable to meet schedule ■ “Next Steps”
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA
5 Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Potentiometric Surface of the Upper Floridan Aquifer September 2012 Contour interval = 10 feet Draft product of the joint WMD potentiometric surface mapping group – May 2013
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA 118.3’ 15.8’ 3.8 ’
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Factors Affecting Surface W ater Levels � Rainfall � Land use and drainage � Groundwater withdrawals
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA CFW I Population 4500 4.1 million 4000 3500 2.7 million 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Florida Governor Legislature SJRMWD Governing Board SWFMWD Governing Board Steering Steering SFMWD Governing Board Public Input Public Input Committee Committee Management Oversight Management Oversight Management Oversight ----- ----- ----- Technical Oversight Technical Oversight Technical Oversight Solutions Regulatory Data, Monitoring Data, Monitoring Data, Monitoring Hydrologic Hydrologic Hydrologic Environmental Environmental Environmental MFLs & MFLs & MFLs & and Investigations and Investigations and Investigations Analysis Analysis Analysis Reservations Reservations Reservations Measures Measures Measures Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater Regional Water Availability Availability Availability Supply Plan
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA CFW I 2 0 1 5 Accom plishm ents 1. Framework for regional cooperation 2. Regional planning SEMINOLE LAKE level estimate of ORANGE sustainable ground OSCEOLA water 3. Single, unified RWSP POLK 4. Regional consensus on the “Next Steps”
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA 1 . Fram ew ork for regional cooperation � CFW I 2 0 1 5 CFW I 2 0 2 0
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA 2 . Regional planning level estim ate of sustainable ground w ater f, F F f
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA East-Central Florida Transient ( ECFT) Groundw ater Flow Model Based on USGS MODFLOW � code Expansion by the USGS of � ECFT Model Area previous m odels Fully three-dim ensional � 1 0 ,0 0 0 square m iles � o 1 1 2 m iles north/ south CFWI Area o 9 2 m iles east/ w est 7 layers from land surface � to the base of the Floridan aquifer From: AquiSciTech
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA East-Central Florida Transient Groundw ater Flow Model � Grid spacing 1 2 5 0 ft X 1 ,2 5 0 ft ( 35.9 acres per cell) 4 7 2 row s/ 3 8 8 colum ns � o 7 layers o 183,000 cells per layer o 1,281,952 MODEL CELLS o Parameter assignments made to each model cell Calibration period: 1 9 9 5 to � 2 0 0 6 o 144 monthly stress periods o Recharge and withdrawal assignments applied for each stress period From: AquiSciTech
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA USGS Model w as Recalibrated by HAT to I m prove Perform ance � Lateral boundary heads � Leakance-vertical hydraulic conductivities � Storage values � Spring disdcharge/ pool elevations � Irrigation water use data improvement From: AquiSciTech
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Scenario Calibration Reference Condition End-of-Permit 2035 Period 1995 to 2006 2005 2012 to 2041 2035 Land Use 1995, 2000 and 2004 2004 2004 2004 Rainfall Measured 1995-2006 Measured 1995-2006 Measured 1995-2006 Measured 1995-2006 2005 EOP Allocations 2035 Projected 1995-2006 • Repeated for 12 years • Repeated for 12 years • Repeated for 12 years • PWS as measured • Adjusted by historic • Adjusted by historic Withdrawals • Adjusted by historic • Ag. as measured or monthly peaking factors monthly peaking monthly peaking factors • Ag. as measured or estimated factors • Ag. (under discussion) • Ag. (under discussion) estimated Runoff and Calculated using Green- Calculated using Green- Calculated using Green- Calculated using Green- Infiltration Ampt Ampt Ampt Ampt Partitioning Estimated irrigation • 2005 Measured and Estimated irrigation deficit deficit then remaining Estimated Irrigation and then remaining reclaimed Measured and Estimated reclaimed water to RIBs RIB Recharge • Adjusted by irrigation water to RIBs or other wet or other wet weather weather disposal deficit from rainfall disposal Open technical process with model assumptions clearly stated and identified
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Workflow Of The Technical Teams Accommodates CFWI Guiding Principals And Collaborative Goals HAT HAT Perform Groundwater Perform Groundwater Flow Modeling Flow Modeling 850 MGD Up to 925 MGD EMT EMT Evaluate Waterbodies Evaluate Waterbodies from Field and Analytical from Field and Analytical Assessment Using GW Assessment Using GW Model Results Model Results GAT GAT Assess Assess Remaining Remaining GW GW Steering Steering MFLRT MFLRT Committee and Committee and Evaluate MFL Waterbodies Evaluate MFL Waterbodies Public Input Public Input from Field and Analytical from Field and Analytical Assessment Using GW Assessment Using GW Model Results Model Results DMIT DMIT Data Analysis and Data Analysis and Warehousing Warehousing Coordinated Integration of the Teams Leads to Comprehensive Results Coordinated Integration of the Teams Leads to Comprehensive Results
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA 3 . SI NGLE, UNI FI ED REGI ONAL W ATER SUPPLY PLAN
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA W ater Use/ Population MGD Million 2035 population 1200 5.0 2035 water use 4.1 million 4.5 1,100 MGD 1000 4.0 3.5 800 3.0 600 2.5 2.0 400 1.5 1.0 200 0.5 0 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA New 2035 Water Available Necessary Alternative Demand Groundwater Recovery Water (AWS) Hydrologic Groundwater Analysis Availability Min Flows & Levels Environmental Measures Regional Water Supply Solution Planning Team Team
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Metrics AW S+ conservation Population • 2015- 2.9 million Fresh Traditional Groundw ater Available • 2035- 4.1 million 2015 RWSP • 415 MGD potential 1 9 9 5 -2 0 1 0 Average W ater Use
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Change in Dem and 2 0 1 0 to 2 0 3 5 250 218.1 200 Total change in demands is 310.8 mgd 150 100 50 4.1 29.6 32.0 21.8 0 5.2 Public Supply Domestic Agriculture Self-supply Landscape / and Small Commercial / Recreational / Power Utilities Industrial / Aesthetic Generation Institutional and Mining / Dewatering
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Public Supply I ncreases > 4 m gd 2 0 1 0 to 2 0 3 5 60 OCU Change in Water Demand (mgd) 50 TOHO OUC 40 APOPKA 30 LAKE UTIL LAKELAND ST CLOUD RCID 20 LEESBURG SEM CO W HAVEN COCOA ECFS 10 0
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA RW SP Projects • 142 RWSP Projects • 10 “new” Projects • 415 mgd • $3.7B
Central Florida W ater I nitiative CENTRAL FLORIDA COORDINATION AREA Solutions Team Projects • 152 RWSP Projects • Reduced to 20 projects/ programs • 224 MGD • $2.8B
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