YOUNG WOMEN ON THE RUN – A SNAPSHOT FROM RURAL SWEDEN THE CASE OF VÄSTERNORRLAND’S COUNTY NORBA/NS-RSA-Conference, Oslo, March 14-15 20102 Mats Johansson & Daniel Rauhut Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Division of Urban and Regional Studies Stockholm WORK IN PROGRESS
Formalities SEMIGRA (Selective Migration and unbalanced Sex Ratio in Rural Regions) is an ESPON priority 2-project. Stakeholders and case studies: Region Sachsen-Anhalt (lead stakeholder), GE Region Västernorrland, SE Region Kainuu, FI Region Alföld, HU Region Magyarország, HU Lead partner: IFL, Leibniz Institute for Regional Geography, Leipzig This paper has been financed by the ESPON targeted analysis project SEMIGRA - Selective Migration and Unbalanced Sex Ratio in Rural Regions and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the ESPON Monitoring Committee .
Västernorrland in Europe Örnsköldsvik Sollefteå Kramfors Härnösand Ånge Timrå Sundsvall
Population – a necessary factor for economic and social activities Point of departure: the demographic equation Population development=natural population change+net-migration The agricultural society: natural population change dominated (exceptions; the emigration waves) The industrial society: Urban population change – both natural population growth and net in-migration Rural population change – natural population growth but net out-migration The post-industrial societies: Migration the prime driver behind regional population changes Out-migration (and natural) + low fertility eroding reproduction potentials Migratory movements: indications of expanding and retarding regions
Background: Long-distance migration in Sweden 1961-2008, per thousand Long-distance internal migration intensities 1961-2008, per thosusand 30 24 21 counties counties 25 20 Industrial society Post-industrial society 15 “The Green Wave” Bad times, crisis Crisis years years 10 Young people 5 Immigrants, refugees 0
Long-distance age-specific migration intensities, Agespecific migration intensities per thousand 1970, 1970, 1983 1983 , 1994 , 1994 and and 2008 2008 120 120 Pe 100 100 r 1970: Good times rural 1970: Good times rural exodus exodus 80 80 th 1983: End ofGreen Wave Green Wave ou Crisis Crisis 60 60 sa 1994: Crisis, 1994: Crisis, turbulence turbulence 40 40 nd 2008: financial and 2008: financial and economic crisis economic crisis 20 20 0 0 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 0 0 7 7 Age Age The dominance of the young people has been reinforced! Younger women more active over time Family migration as highest 1970!
Background: Population development 1968-2010 in Sweden (SE), Stockholm (AB) and Västernorrland’s (Y) counties. 160 140 120 100 SE men SE women The gap has increased = 100, 1968 AB men 80 Index AbB women Fastest development – men in Stockholm. Female-freindly labour market? The urban lifestyle? Y men 60 Y women Worst development – men in Västernorrland. Labour market conditions? Deindustrialization, jobless growth? 40 In- and out-migration in the differing regions? Out-migration of young women – 20 eroding reproduction potentials (in combination with low fertiltiy, TFRs) 0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010
Labour market problems: Unemployment, young adults 1996-2010, both sexes Highest 1996/97 – crisis years Men in Västernorrland highest all years, ”male - unfriendly” labour market, jobless growth Women in Stockholm – lowest all years ”female -friendly ”labour market, high share in service production
Labour market problems: Young adults in labour market schemes, both sexes Sharp rise 1999/2000 – young adults probems on the labour market, espc in Västernorrland, Policy changes! Increased segmentation despite ”good times”? Regional polarization? Where to go?
Average age of population 1998 and 2010, both sexes, SE, AB and Y The average age is highest in Västernorrland. It has increased more than for Sweden and Stockholm. Reason – out-migration? Weak reproduction potential – no women, no children! Västernorrland in a weak position with regard to economic, labour market and demographic structure and development – both for men and women
Västernorrland, in- and out migration intensities, both sexes 18-34years 12 10 8 Y m in % 6 Y m out Y w in Highest every year – outmigrating women Y w out Result – net-outmigration 4 Lowest every year – in-migrating men Result – net-outmigration for both sexes 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Shares (%) of females in the in- and out-migration flows for AB- and Y-counties 2000-2010. Ages 18-34. Women are more mobile (over 50 % of the streams almost every year): Stockholm – higher share of women in out-mig than in in-mig (return migrants?) Västernorrland – higher share of women in in-mig than in out-mig (return migrants?) Be care: The numbers are of various size!
Migration intensities, women 18-34 years, AB- and Y-counties 12 10 8 ABin ABout Yin % 6 Yout The migration intensities for Västernorrland are higher than for Stockholm! 4 The big difference is net-outmigration in Västernorrland and net-inmigration in Stockholm The turnover of people is high in Västernorrland (high in and out) and low in Stockholm (low in and out). 2 Connection to the business cycles? To refugee immigration? 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Migration intensities, women 18-24 years AB- and Y-counties 18 16 14 12 10 ABin % ABout Yin 8 Yout 6 Västernorrland: High in-migration but even higher out-migration – net out-migration. 4 Both intensities are higher than Stockholm’s. 2 But: the large gap in Västernorrland explains the net out-migration for the whole population! 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Migration intensities, women 25-29 years, AB- and Y-counties 14 12 10 8 ABin % ABout Yin 6 Yout 4 Compared to 18-24 – in-migration is lower than for Stockholm but higher than out-migration. Hopefully! 2 Result – positive net-migration for ages 25 and over. But can’t compensate for the huge out-migration in the ages 18-24! 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Migration intensities, women 30-34 years, AB- and Y-counties 7 6 5 4 ABin % ABout Yin 3 Yout 2 The same pattern as for the age group 25-29 but at lower levels. Large gap between in-mig and out-mig for Västernorrland. But can’t compensate for the huge out-migration gap in the ages 18-24! 1 (Hopefully – impact on the migration strategies?) 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Summing-up: Young women on the run – myth or reality? High in-migration in both cases – in metropolitan Stockholm as well as in the ”rural” • and sparsely populated industrial Västernorrland! A big difference is the high turnover in Västernorrland. In-migration creates out- • migration? Or out-migration creates in-migration some years later? Young women have a higher turnover than men in Västernorrland – especially • concerning out-migration Out-migration creates eroding reproduction potentials • The problem is more the high out-migration than low in-migration (that is at the same • level as for Stockholm) For Västernorrland – the most problematic point is the high out-migration among the • youngest women (18-24 years) Reality: huge out-migration in the ages 18-24. Result – net out-migration of younger • women (18-24) Myth: in-migration in the ages 25 and over. Result – in-migration in the family creating • ages, positive for natural population change (increasing reproduction potentials) Recommendation – stimulate in-migration in the ages 25 and over. Income spin-offs? Increasing reproduction potentials. Precondition: female- friendly diversified labour markets, no “macho” image, good schools, good communications, etc. Important for recruitment of well educated young women (return after studies).
Thanks for listening and “don’t worry, be happy” wherever you live
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