The 2015 Tentative Budget The 2015 Tentative Budget Tompkins County, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 2015 Tentative Budget The 2015 Tentative Budget Tompkins County, New York

Economic and Fiscal Influences f Contradictory Trends y • Positive economic Positive economic indicators • Continued indications of underlying need

Economic and Fiscal Influences f • Positive economic indicators

Tompkins County Unemployment, January Economic and Fiscal 2006 ‐ July 2014 8 0% 8.0% Influences f 7.0% • Positive economic indicators 6.0% – Falling unemployment 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan ‐ 06 Aug ‐ 06 Mar ‐ 07 Oct ‐ 07 May ‐ 08 Dec ‐ 08 Jul ‐ 09 Feb ‐ 10 Sep ‐ 10 Apr ‐ 11 Nov ‐ 11 Jun ‐ 12 Jan ‐ 13 Aug ‐ 13 Mar ‐ 14

Tompkins County Unemployment, January Economic and Fiscal 2006 ‐ July 2014 8 0% 8.0% Influences f 7.0% • Positive economic indicators 6.0% – Falling unemployment 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan ‐ 06 Aug ‐ 06 Mar ‐ 07 Oct ‐ 07 May ‐ 08 Dec ‐ 08 Jul ‐ 09 Feb ‐ 10 Sep ‐ 10 Apr ‐ 11 Nov ‐ 11 Jun ‐ 12 Jan ‐ 13 Aug ‐ 13 Mar ‐ 14

Economic and Fiscal Inflation, January 2006 ‐ July 2014 6 0% 6.0% Influences f 5.0% • Positive economic indicators 4.0% – Low inflation 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% an ‐ 06 ul ‐ 06 an ‐ 07 ul ‐ 07 an ‐ 08 ul ‐ 08 an ‐ 09 ul ‐ 09 an ‐ 10 ul ‐ 10 an ‐ 11 ul ‐ 11 an ‐ 12 ul ‐ 12 an ‐ 13 ul ‐ 13 an ‐ 14 ul ‐ 14 Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja ‐ 1.0% ‐ 2.0% ‐ 3.0%

Economic and Fiscal Consumer Confidence, US and Upstate NY, January 2006 ‐ July 2014 Influences f 120 • Positive economic indicators 100 – Generally improving 80 consumer confidence 60 40 20 0 n ‐ 06 l ‐ 06 n ‐ 07 l ‐ 07 n ‐ 08 l ‐ 08 n ‐ 09 l ‐ 09 n ‐ 10 l ‐ 10 n ‐ 11 l ‐ 11 n ‐ 12 l ‐ 12 n ‐ 13 l ‐ 13 n ‐ 14 l ‐ 14 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul US Upstate

Economic and Fiscal Consumer Confidence, US and Upstate NY, January 2006 ‐ July 2014 Influences f 120 • Positive economic indicators 100 – Generally improving 80 consumer confidence 60 40 20 0 n ‐ 06 l ‐ 06 n ‐ 07 l ‐ 07 n ‐ 08 l ‐ 08 n ‐ 09 l ‐ 09 n ‐ 10 l ‐ 10 n ‐ 11 l ‐ 11 n ‐ 12 l ‐ 12 n ‐ 13 l ‐ 13 n ‐ 14 l ‐ 14 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul US Upstate Poly. (US) Poly. (Upstate)

Mid ‐ Year Taxable Sales, 2009 ‐ Economic and Fiscal 2014 in Tompkins County f Influences $800 • Positive economic indicators $700 $700 – Moderate growth in $600 consumer spending $500 $500 Millions – Up 3.7% first half of 2015 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0

Monthly Closing Prices, Dow Economic and Fiscal Jones, January 2001 ‐ August 2014 2014 Influences f 18,000 • Positive economic indicators 16,000 – Continued growth in stock 14,000 market 12,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 4 000 4,000 2,000 ‐ 3/30/2001 3/28/2002 3/31/2003 3/31/2004 3/31/2005 3/31/2006 3/30/2007 3/31/2008 3/31/2009 3/31/2010 3/31/2011 3/31/2012 3/30/2013 3/30/2014

Economic and Fiscal Influences f • Continued indications of underlying need

Economic and Fiscal Tompkins County SNAP Cases, 2001 ‐ May 2014 , y Influences f 5,500 5,000 • Continued indications of 4,500 underlying need 4,000 – SNAP cases still rising SNAP cases still rising 3 500 3,500 – Rate of growth slowing 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 ‐ Jan ‐ 01 Jul ‐ 01 Jan ‐ 02 Jul ‐ 02 Jan ‐ 03 Jul ‐ 03 Jan ‐ 04 Jul ‐ 04 Jan ‐ 05 Jul ‐ 05 Jan ‐ 06 Jul ‐ 06 Jan ‐ 07 Jul ‐ 07 Jan ‐ 08 Jul ‐ 08 Jan ‐ 09 Jul ‐ 09 Jan ‐ 10 Jul ‐ 10 Jan ‐ 11 Jul ‐ 11 Jan ‐ 12 Jul ‐ 12 Jan ‐ 13 Jul ‐ 13 Jan ‐ 14

Total Temporary Assistance Economic and Fiscal Cases, 2008 ‐ May 2014 Influences f 1000 950 • Continued indications of 900 underlying need 850 – Total Temporary Assistance Total Temporary Assistance 800 800 cases up 17% since 750 September 2012 700 – Higher now than at depth of 650 recession 600 550 500 08 08 09 10 11 11 12 13 14 Jan ‐ 0 Oct ‐ 0 Jul ‐ 0 Apr ‐ 1 Jan ‐ 1 Oct ‐ 1 Jul ‐ 1 Apr ‐ 1 Jan ‐ 1

Economic and Fiscal Safety Net Cases, 2008 ‐ May 2014 Influences f 700 700 600 • Continued indications of underlying need 500 – Safety Net cases still trending Safety Net cases still trending 400 upward 300 – 71% local cost share 200 100 0

Economic and Fiscal Family Assistance Cases, 2008 ‐ May 2014 y Influences f 500 450 • Continued indications of underlying need 400 350 – Family Assistance cases rising Family Assistance cases rising 300 after years of decline 250 200 150 100 100 50 0 0 Jan ‐ 08 Jul ‐ 08 Jan ‐ 09 Jul ‐ 09 Jan ‐ 10 Jul ‐ 10 Jan ‐ 11 Jul ‐ 11 Jan ‐ 12 Jul ‐ 12 Jan ‐ 13 Jul ‐ 13 Jan ‐ 14

Medicaid Cases, by Year, 2008 ‐ 2013 Economic and Fiscal f Influences 14,000 • Continued indications of 12,000 underlying need 10,000 – Medicaid caseloads rising by Medicaid caseloads rising by 8,000 500+ per year 6,000 4,000 2 000 2,000 ‐

2015 Budgetary Goals 2015 Budgetary Goals

Maintain Current Levels of Service

Reinvest in Facilities and Infrastructure

Stabilize Airport Finances Stabilize Airport Finances

Address emergent policy goals Address emergent policy goals

Maintain fiscal strength and stability

Remain within Tax Cap Remain within Tax Cap

Starting Point: Major Budget Influences

• No contracts in place for • No contracts in place for 2015 Wages Wages – Most expire 12/2014 M t i 12/2014 • Funds provided for restrained settlements

Budgeted FTEs 800 775.8 750 No Growth 700 721.4 in in 650 650 Workforce 600 550 500 500 450 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

• Pension rates estimated to fall to 18.8% of payroll from 20.1% Stable • Health premiums up 5% Fringe Fringe – Consortium applying reserves Benefits to reduce rates – 8% underlying rate of growth • Total pension and health l d h l h costs down $190,000 (local)

Pension Rates as % of Payroll 25 0% 25.0% 20 0% 20.0% Stable Fringe Fringe 15 0% 15.0% Benefits 10.0% 10 0% 5.0% 5 0% 0 0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

PreK Medicaid State Training Change in Local Costs of Mandated Daycare Safety Net Medical Exami ner EAA Psychiatric Programs Delinquent Car re Child Care Assigned Coun nsel Outside Colleg es Family Assistan nce Jail B/O & Med dical Early Intervent tion $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $(50,000) $(100,000) $(150,000) $(150 000) $(200,000) $ ‐ Up $211,000 Mandates $

Medicaid History, 2001 ‐ 2015 Budget $14.0 $12.0 Medicaid $10.0 C Cost t $8.0 Millions History y $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ ‐

Jail Medical and Board Out Costs, 2009 ‐ 2013 $600,000 $500,000 $ , Jail Medical $400,000 and Board d B d $300,000 Out Costs $200,000 $100,000 $100 000 $ ‐ 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Medical Board Outs Total

• Levy increase of 0.5% for capital improvements p p Capital – Lower than policy (+0.75%) R i Reinvestment • Funding for capital up $225,344 – Mainly debt service for projects already authorized projects already authorized

• Modest growth • Projected increase of 2.0% in Sales Tax Sales Tax 2014 and 1 5% in 2015 2014 and 1.5% in 2015 • $628,000 in added revenue

• Payments based on prior P t b d i winter’s experience Town Plowing Town Plowing • Up $169,000 (to $600,000) from 2014

• Lansing (CPP) Plant PILOT L i (CPP) Pl t PILOT Revenue – $96,400 L Losses • Finger Lakes Library Rent – $78,600

• TC3 – 3% increase – $83,659 Sponsored • Tompkins County Public Library and Partner and Partner – Baseline support now funded with Baseline support now funded with recurring revenue, per 2013 plan Agencies – $140,000 shift from County reserves to target to target • TCAD – $96,000 local dollar increase per 2013 Agreement – Will decline in following 3 years as – Will decline in following 3 years as Room Tax support increases

• 1% ($400,000) across ‐ the ‐ 1% ($400 000) th Directed board reduction in local Spending Spending d ll dollar spending di Cuts • Applied to all non ‐ pp mandated or fixed costs

Outcomes Outcomes

Goal: No reduction in service Maintain Maintain Services

Goal: Goal: • Fully funds projects in Maintain Updated CIP C Capital i l • Adds 0.5% ($225,000) to Investment tax levy tax levy

Ten Year Projection 10,000,000 10 000 000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 Projected 6,000,000 Capital Levy, Capital Levy, 5 000 000 5,000,000 Capital Costs, & 4,000,000 Capital Reserve Capital Reserve 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 ‐ 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Capital Levy Capital Levy Debt Svc Debt Svc Capital Reserve