7/24/2019 Telework, Co-working, and Relocation: How Will Economic and Technological Changes Alter Work Trips presented by presented to SCAG Michelle Bina, Cambridge Systematics co-authors Jingjing Zang (CS) Kevin Kane (SCAG) Anurag Komanduri (CS) Sneha Roy (CS) June 6, 2019 Background Funding in California is tied to accurate measurement of GHG emissions Unique factors in the SCAG region Average Commute Distance 14 12 10 8 Miles 6 4 2 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1
7/24/2019 The Past and the Future SHARE OF WORKERS WHO WORKED AT HOME 6.0 5.5 Share of Workers (%) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Source: ACS data New Elements 2
7/24/2019 Existing Data Teleworkers Share of Total Workers Share of Workers who Telework, by County by Number of Days Telecommuting 10% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 9% 1 day 8% 7% 2 days 6% 5% 3 days 4% 3% 4 days 2% 1% 5 or more days 0% Los Orange Riverside San Ventura Imperial CHTS NHTS (2009) NHTS (2017) Angeles Bernardino Telecommuters Home Workers 3
7/24/2019 Teleworkers by Income Share of Workers that Telework 12% 10% Household Income 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% <$25K $25k-$50k $50k-$75k $75k-$100k $100k-$125k$125k-$150k$150k-$200k >$200k Telecommuter Home Worker New Data on Teleworkers Questions Online Panel Survey » Demographics » 1,336 samples » Reasons for teleworking » Telecommuters » Commute characteristics » Home workers » Relocation » All 6 counties » Coworking 4
7/24/2019 Coworking Site Survey Coworking Spaces 4% of Americans have worked in a coworking site.* *Source: Pew Research Center . 5
7/24/2019 Why Work at a Coworking Site? REASON FOR WORKING AT COWORKING SITE Other, 12% Closer to home/more Have access work-less to business travel, 40% services, 21% Quieter than working at Prefer social home, 7% environment, 20% What’s the Alternative? COWORKING SITE ALTERNATIVE Would get Other, 3% another job, 8% Other company office, 32% Home, 57% 6
7/24/2019 Coworker Travel Behavior Trip Distance (miles) 0 5 10 15 20 25 14.5 To Coworking Site 22.7 To Other SoCal Office The Future of Work 7
7/24/2019 Gig Economy Traditional Non-Traditional Work Arrangements Work Arrangements (Gig Workers) - Full or part-time wage Independent contractors - and salary workers - Seasonal workers - Self-employed or non- - Temporary agency workers Employers in own - On-call or contract workers incorporated business - Contingent workers Independent Work Arrangements (Independent Workers) - Online platform workers - Informal arrangements Automation Potential Differences by industry and occupation Healthcare, social assistance, education Growth High skill, creativity, social intelligence Administrative, manufacturing, Decline driving tasks 8
7/24/2019 Automation Potential Automation Potential of Jobs by Occupation 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Food Preparation and Business and Finance Social Service and Office Construction, Repair, Farming, Production Education, Health Care Engineering, Computer, Sales Specialist Support Transportation Legal Total SCAG Employment Automation Potential Automation Potential of Jobs by Occupation 100% 1,800,000 90% 1,600,000 80% 1,400,000 70% 1,200,000 60% 1,000,000 50% 800,000 40% 600,000 30% 400,000 20% 200,000 10% 0% 0 Food Preparation and Business and Finance Social Service and Office Construction, Repair, Farming, Production Education, Health Care Engineering, Computer, Sales Specialist Support Transportation Legal Total SCAG Employment Brookings Frey Obsborne 9
7/24/2019 Automation Potential Automation Potential of Jobs by Occupation 100% 1,800,000 90% 1,600,000 80% 1,400,000 70% 1,200,000 60% 1,000,000 50% 800,000 40% 600,000 30% 400,000 20% 200,000 10% 0% 0 Food Preparation and Business and Finance Social Service and Office Construction, Repair, Farming, Production Education, Health Care Engineering, Computer, Sales Specialist Support Transportation Legal Total SCAG Employment Brookings Frey Obsborne Nesta How Does This Fit Together? Drivers of Change Economic Changes Job Changes Travel Changes Technology Job displacement Change in jobs by • Automation Trip Frequency industry and • ICT & VMT by occupation Location and Job creation Time of Day Demand • Commute / • Consumer work-related preferences travel Work arrangement • Demographics Change in Commute • Teleworking • Other travel • Work from home Self-employment / Freelancing Automation Potential Gig Economy 10
7/24/2019 Thank You mbina@camsys.com 11
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