TED Talk: The Future of Legal Services from the Buyers Viewpoint - PDF document

Ann Lee Gibson, Ph.D. TED Talk: The Future of Legal Services from the Buyers ’ Viewpoint The College of Law Practice Management October 4, 2013, Chicago, Illinois Page 1 This morning, I will foretell our future. Fortunately, I have a whole 15 minutes to do so. First, we’ll look at some global megatrends that are changing society and business. These trends will impact every market and industry we serve. Then we’ll explore how these trends are changing one large industry’s markets, legal needs and buyers. You ’ve already heard how different the future will be. Here are a few reminders: In 2010 The world’s population was 6.9 billion . In 2011 The corporate Global 500 generated $30 trillion in revenue. In 2012 GDP growth in places like Thailand, Angola and Peru exceeded 5% . By 2020 The world ’s population will be 7.7 billion . By 2020 Global 500 revenue will have doubled — to $60 trillion . By 2030 The world ’s population will be 8.4 billion , and 60% will live in cities. For the first time in history , more than half the world will be living above the poverty line . The coming decades have been likened to the French Revolution, a time Charles Dickens wrote about in a way that sounds quite modern: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times …. it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness … it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair … we were all going direct to h eaven, we were all going direct the other way ….” In our next era, different leaders and nations and younger generations will gain control. We will change how we live, work and even how we think. But as we consider these coming changes, how stable have recent eras really been? www.annleegibson.com agibson@annleegibson.com www.lawfirmci.blogspot.com 1-417-256-3575

Ann Lee Gibson, Ph.D. TED Talk: The Future of Legal Services from the Buyers ’ Viewpoint The College of Law Practice Management October 4, 2013, Chicago, Illinois Page 2 Since World War II, the US has been involved in armed conflicts in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Latin America. One US President was assassinated, and two others escaped assassination attempts. We suffered terrorist attacks in Oklahoma and New York. 625,000 Americans died of AIDS, and another 1.2 million are infected with HIV. On the positive side, African-Americans, women and gays won civil rights they were long denied. In post-war Europe, countries rebuilt dramatically. The 1950s brought the Cold War. The ‘60s saw Europe split by the Iron Curtain. The ‘80s and ‘90s brought Glasnost, German reunification and USSR dissolution, which opened up Eastern Europe to capitalism. Today the European Union includes 27 countries. Fifteen of them share a common currency. Since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the US has undergone 13 recessions. I was in the work force for seven of them. I’ve had careers in three very different industries, was employed at ten institutions and companies, and had a dozen temporary gigs. For the last 16 years I’ve been self -employed. That’s what “ stability ” used to look like. Every generation is imprinted by the circumstances and mood of the world they’re born into. In this room are three generations. We baby boomers rejected our parents’ traditional values. We discovered sex, drugs, and rock and roll. Then we got jobs and spent the rest of our lives at the office. Now we’re discovering arthritis and retirement, but w e ’re still influenced by our youthful ideologies. Gen Xs discovered Billy Idol, entrepreneurship and work-life balance. You ’re less ideological than Boomers and have more education. Some call you the MTV generation , but you’re really the MBA generation. You take risks and solve problems. You start and manage businesses with confidence. You’re pragmatic and get the job done. www.annleegibson.com agibson@annleegibson.com www.lawfirmci.blogspot.com 1-417-256-3575

Ann Lee Gibson, Ph.D. TED Talk: The Future of Legal Services from the Buyers ’ Viewpoint The College of Law Practice Management October 4, 2013, Chicago, Illinois Page 3 Gen Ys, or Millennials, are special, too. Your strong sense of community includes the whole world. You’re the first digital natives. For you, virtual is real. Your first loyalty is to yourself, not institutions. Your process is experiential. I have no idea how you and the legal project management guys are going to coexist. Yet we all face the same future. Every five years, the National Intelligence Council publishes a report about global trends, uncertainties, and possible future scenarios for the next 15-20 years. These reports are widely used in planning exercises around the world. The latest report identifies four global trends in force through 2030. These trends will deepen and intertwine to produce a qualitatively different world than any of us were born into. The report also identifies other forces — some within and some outside our control — and four potential futures The first global trend is individual empowerment . This trend will accelerate substantially in the next 15-20 years due to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, more education, new communications and manufacturing technologies, and better health care. This is the most important trend. It is both a cause and effect of most other trends, including the expanding global economy and rapid growth of developing countries. Individuals will use their power to cause both productive and destructive effects. The second trend is diffusion of power . Going forward, there will be no world-wide hegemonic power. Pax Americana is over. Real power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multi-polar world. This shift is true of global and regional political relationships. It is also true of business, cultural and social relationships. Temporary networks will spring up inside and between enterprises. For individuals, these first two trends mean the world is becoming a place where whom you know and which conversations you were present for define your influence more than your current job title does. www.annleegibson.com agibson@annleegibson.com www.lawfirmci.blogspot.com 1-417-256-3575

Ann Lee Gibson, Ph.D. TED Talk: The Future of Legal Services from the Buyers ’ Viewpoint The College of Law Practice Management October 4, 2013, Chicago, Illinois Page 4 The third trend is changing demographic patterns . We will see unprecedented and widespread aging. By 2030 the median ages of populations in most of Europe and in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will be 45 years or older. There, economic activity will slow. In areas where the median population rises above 25 years, we will see lower crime rates and fewer revolutions. Global migration will increase as both rich and developing countries suffer from workforce shortages. The fourth trend is about the nexus between food, water and energy . Demand for these will grow substantially due to increasing populations. By 2030, demand for food and water will rise 40%. But here’s the kicker: Growing more food requires more water. Moving water to where food is grown requires energy. Generating bio-fuels uses up land and water that otherwise would be used to grow food. So tackling problems that pertain to any one of these commodities is linked to supply and demand for the other two. By 2030 half the world’s population will live in areas with severe water stress. Fragile states in Africa and the Middle East are most at risk of food/water shortages, but China and India are also vulnerable. This nexus will lead us to new technologies and new societal decisions. To paraphrase that unsolicited advice offered in the movie The Graduate : “I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Water! There’s a great future in water.” And from the “Who would have believed this? department,” the US is about to become energy independent, perhaps by 2020. Recent shale gas discoveries will give us enough natural gas to meet our domestic needs and generate potential global exports for decades. These discoveries, along with some new oil extraction technologies and possible energy policy changes will improve the US trade balance and expand our economy, not to mention what could happen to OPEC. www.annleegibson.com agibson@annleegibson.com www.lawfirmci.blogspot.com 1-417-256-3575