Technology and Technology and Stabilization Stabilization - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Technology and Technology and Stabilization Stabilization Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios Jae Edmonds 22 January 2004 National Institutes for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan

Thanks To Thanks To Thanks To National Institutes for Environmental Studies Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Sponsors of the GTSP Kansai Electric Power U.S. Department of Energy U.S. EPA EPRI 2

Dedicated to the Memory of Dedicated to the Memory of Dedicated to the Memory of Tsuneyuki Morita Tsuneyuki Morita Tsuneyuki Morita 3

Key Question for Today Key Question for Today Key Question for Today What are the energy technology implications of stabilizing climate—not just CO 2 concentrations? � Interactions with uncertainty in biogeochemical parameterization; � Interactions with uncertainty in technology developments. Inspired by the work of Richels, Manne and Wigley. 4

APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH Background—MiniCAM A Reference Case—MiniCAM B2 Stabilize mean global temperature change to 2 o C (relative to pre-industrial) at minimum cost. Sensitivities � Physical science uncertainties � Climate sensitivity � Ocean diffusivity � Terrestrial carbon uptake � Energy technology uncertainties � CO 2 capture and storage � H 2 systems � Biotechnology 5

MiniCAM MiniCAM MiniCAM Atmosphere Climate & Sea Level Atmospheric Chemistry Climate System Ocean Ocean Carbon Cycle Temperature Sea Level Human Activities Ecosystems Terrestrial Unmanaged Energy Other Human System Systems Carbon Cycle Ecosystems & Animals Crops & Agriculture, Coastal Zone Livestock, & System Forest Hydrology Forestry Productivity 6

The MiniCAM The MiniCAM The MiniCAM KEY CHARACTERISTICS KEY CHARACTERISTICS KEY CHARACTERISTICS Energy-Agriculture-Economy Market Equilibrium 17 Global Regions 15-year time steps Multiple Greenhouse Gases Internally Generated Demographics Land Resource Constraints 69 Energy Technology Options 7

The MiniCAM The MiniCAM The MiniCAM KEY CHARACTERISTICS KEY CHARACTERISTICS KEY CHARACTERISTICS 15 Greenhouse Related Gases Tracked Carbon Dioxide Methane 15 Source Sectors � Energy, Human Wastes, Agriculture, Land-Use � Nitrous Oxide 12 Source Sectors � Energy, Human, Industrial, Agriculture, Land-Use � Halocarbons, etc. GHG concentrations 15 Source Sectors (7 gases) GHG concentrations � and radiative forcing and radiative forcing Reactive Gases calculated using calculated using NOx, VOC, CO � MAGICC (Wigley et al. ) MAGICC (Wigley et al. ) Sulfur Dioxide Carbonaceous Aerosols Black Carbon & Organic Carbon � 19 Source Sectors each (Energy & Land-Use Combustion) � 8

MiniCAM B2 MiniCAM B2 MiniCAM B2

The Reference Primary Energy System The Reference Primary Energy System SRES MiniCAM B- -2 2 SRES MiniCAM B 1,400 1,200 Exajoules per Year Wind 1,000 Solar 800 Nuclear Hydro 600 Biomass Coal 400 Gas 200 Oil 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 10

B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise 2500 800 Global Mean Temperat ure Change from Pre-indust rial Temperature Change 3.5 700 Global Mean 2000 3 600 Concentrations 2.5 500 1500 CO2 ppm degrees C 2 ppb 400 1000 1.5 300 CH4Conc N2OConc 1 200 CO2Conc 500 0.5 100 Sea Level Rise from 1990 0 0 0 60 3,500 1990 2010 2030 2050 25,000 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 CH4 3,000 50 N2O Sea Level Rise 20,000 NOx CO 2,500 VOC 40 Emissions BC 15,000 OC Tgas/ year 2,000 T C/ year CO2 process CM 30 HFC-245fa HFC-134a 1,500 HFC125(227ea) 10,000 HFC-143a 20 SF6 1,000 C2F6 CF4 5,000 CO2 TgC/ yr 10 500 0 0 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 11

Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization

The Analysis The Analysis The Analysis Global Mean Temperature Global Mean Temperat ure Change from Pre-indust rial 3.5 Change not to exceed 2 o C. 3.0 2.5 degrees C 2.0 1.5 This limit does NOT reflect a 1.0 0.5 determination as to a change 0.0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 that avoids dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. � Other values could equally well have been chosen. � Future work will explore other values. 13

14 Minimize the cost of stabilizing climate change Approach Approach Approach

Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference Technology and Physical Reference Technology and Physical Reference Technology and Physical Parameters Parameters Parameters Global Mean Temperat ure Change from Pre-indust rial CO 2 Concent rat ion 3.5 800 B2 Reference Case 700 3.0 B2 Reference Case 600 2.5 500 B2 st ab ref degrees C 2.0 degrees C science, ref 400 t ech B2 stab ref science, ref 1.5 t ech 300 1.0 200 0.5 100 0.0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 15

CO 2 Emissions CO CO 2 Emissions 2 Emissions Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions 25,000 20,000 B2 Ref 15,000 MMT Carbon 10,000 B2 Ref 2020, St ablizat ion 7,931 MMT 5,000 C/ year 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 16

Carbon Tax and Total Cost Carbon Tax and Total Cost Carbon Tax and Total Cost B2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization B2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization B2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization Global, Common, Carbon Tax in B2 Reference St abilizat ion Case Present $900 Present $816 Discounted Cost Discounted Cost $800 $696 1990 U.S. $/ ton C $700 $4.625 $4.625 $600 trillion $488 trillion $500 $400 $321 1990 U.S. dollars, 1990 U.S. dollars, $300 discounted @ 5%/year, discounted @ 5%/year, 1990 to 2095 1990 to 2095 $200 $138 $100 $29 $0 $0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 17

Energy and Stabilization Energy and Stabilization Energy and Stabilization B2 Reference with B2 Reference Climate Stabilization 1000 1000 900 900 H2 H2 Final Energy Biom Biom 800 800 Elec Elec 700 700 Coal Coal 600 600 Gas Gas Oil Oil 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 400 350 SatSolar SatSolar SWStor SWStor 350 Wind 300 Electric Power Wind Fusion Fusion 300 H2Fcell H2Fcell 250 GasCap GasCap OilCap OilCap 250 EJ/year EJ/year CoalCap CoalCap 200 Biomass Biomass 200 Hydro Hydro Solar Solar 150 Nuclear Nuclear 150 Coal Coal Gas Gas 100 100 Oil Oil 50 50 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 18

Biomass and Land- -Use Change Use Change Biomass and Land Biomass and Land-Use Change Emission Emission Emission Biomass in B2 Reference and B2 Reference Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions St abilizat ion Cases 4000 350 3500 B2 st ab Modern 300 b2 St able Wast e & Trad 3000 250 B2 Modern 2500 EJ/ year B2 Wast e & Trad TgC/ year C 200 2000 1500 150 1000 100 500 50 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 -500 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 -1000 B2 Reference B2 Reference with Stabilization 100% 100% 90% 90% Non-prod Non-prod 80% 80% Land Land 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% BioLand Unmgd Unmgd 40% 40% BioLand Forest Forest 30% 30% Pasture Pasture 20% 20% 10% 10% Crops Crops 0% 0% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 19

Physical Parameter Uncertainty & Physical Parameter Uncertainty & Physical Parameter Uncertainty & Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization Climate Stabilization

Alternative Biogeophysical Alternative Biogeophysical Alternative Biogeophysical Parameterizations Parameterizations Parameterizations SEVEN CASES Reference Low Reference High High Climate High Climate Sensitivity Value Value Value Sensitivity Units High Ocean Diffusivity degrees C per High Carbon Uptake CO 2 doubling Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5 Low Climate Sensitivity cm 2 /s Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 Low Ocean Diffusivity Carbon Uptake low mid high various Low Carbon Uptake High Ocean Low Reference High Diffusivity Value Value Value Units degrees C per Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5 CO 2 doubling Each case uses the Each case uses the cm 2 /s Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 extreme value for Carbon Uptake low mid high various extreme value for one physical one physical Low Reference High High Carbon Value Value Value parameter and Uptake Units parameter and degrees C per reference values for CO 2 doubling Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5 reference values for cm 2 /s the others Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 the others Carbon Uptake low mid high various 21