Alternative Paths Toward Stabilization Alternative Paths Toward Stabilization Some Challenges for New Scenarios Some Challenges for New Scenarios ć enovi ć a Naki ć enovi ć Nebojš ša Naki Neboj International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology (VUT) and Vienna University of Technology (VUT) naki@iiasa.ac.at naki@iiasa.ac.at Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios, Sponsored by NIES and EMF Sponsored by NIES and EMF Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios, Tsukuba, Japan on January 22- -23, 2004 23, 2004 Tsukuba, Japan on January 22
Stabilization Scenarios Stabilization Scenarios “Stylized Facts Stylized Facts” ” “ � Path Path- -dependence of stabilization dependence of stabilization vs vs baseline baseline � � Baseline more important than stabilization Baseline more important than stabilization � � Uncertainty Uncertainty – – probabilistic or distributions probabilistic or distributions � � Stabilization reduces emissions uncertainties Stabilization reduces emissions uncertainties � � Consequences of lower economic growth Consequences of lower economic growth � � Ancillary and avoided adaptation benefits Ancillary and avoided adaptation benefits � � Spatially explicit drivers, mitigation & impacts Spatially explicit drivers, mitigation & impacts � IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #2 2 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
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Our dear friend and colleague is gone, leaving a void in our community and in our lives that can never be filled... He will live forever in our hearts, in our thoughts and in our scientific work ‒ and we ’ ll continue to miss him every day!
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions 10 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 8 (index, 1990=1) 95% 6 Non-intervention 4 75% Non-classified Median Intervention 2 1990 range 25% 5% 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Nakicenovic IPCC 2001
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 40 SRES Scenarios and Literature Range 40 SRES Scenarios and Literature Range Total database range 10 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 8 Energy and Industry (index, 1990=1) 95% Maximum in 6 Database A2 Non-intervention 4 IS92 range Non-classified A1 Median 1990 range B2 2 (all scenarios) Intervention B1 Minimum in Database 5% 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Nakicenovic et al. et al. SRES 2000 Nakicenovic IIASA&TUW 2004 SRES 2000 Nakicenovic #9 9 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Stabilization Profiles Stabilization Profiles 35 Gt in 2100 A1FI (A1C & A1G) S450 Stabilization A2 25 S550 at 450, 550, 650 S650 ppmv CO 2 WGI trajectory 20 WRE A1B 15 B2 GtC 10 S650 5 A1T S550 B1 S450 0 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 Nakicenovic et al. SRES 2000
Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Stabilization Profiles Stabilization Profiles 35 Gt in 2100 A1FI (A1C & A1G) S450 Stabilization 25 S550 at 450, 550, 650 S650 ppmv CO 2 WGI trajectory 20 WRE A1B 15 GtC 10 S650 5 A1T S550 S450 0 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 Nakicenovic et al. SRES 2000
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nakicenovic et. al IPCC 2001
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nakicenovic et. al IPCC 2001
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nakicenovic et. al IPCC 2001
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #15 15 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #16 16 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Emissions Mitigation Technologies Emissions Mitigation Technologies Demand Reduction 30 Fuel switching Carbon Dioxide Emissions [GtC] (mainly shifts away A2 from coal) 20 scrubbing and removal - synthetic fuels production scrubbing and 10 removal - power sector (natural gas) A2-550s scrubbing and removal - power 0 sector (coal) 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Source: K. Riahi Nakicenovic Source: K. Riahi Nakicenovic
SYSTEMS COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SYSTEMS COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY BASELINES AND STABILIZATION SCENARIOS BASELINES AND STABILIZATION SCENARIOS 1400 450ppmv CO 2 stabilization Cumulative Discounted System 1200 Costs (1990-2100), 550ppmv [trillion US$] 650ppmv 750ppmv 1000 450ppmv A1C 550ppmv 750ppmv A1G 450ppmv 550ppmv 800 A1B 450ppmv 600 550ppmv Baselines A1T 400 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Cumulative CO 2 Emissions [GtC] IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #18 18 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 40 SRES Scenarios and Literature Range 40 SRES Scenarios and Literature Range Total database range 10 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 8 Energy and Industry (index, 1990=1) 95% Maximum in 6 Database A2 Non-intervention 4 IS92 range Non-classified A1 Median 1990 range B2 2 (all scenarios) Intervention B1 Minimum in Database 5% 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Nakicenovic et al. et al. SRES 2000 Nakicenovic IIASA&TUW 2004 SRES 2000 Nakicenovic #19 19 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Energy- -Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Energy N = 40 Scenarios 36-39 2100 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions (GtC) 35 33-36 Sample = 190 Median = 15.4 30-33 30 27-30 IS92e 24-27 IS92f 25 21-24 20 18-21 IS92a,b 15-18 Median 15 12-15 9-12 10 6-9 IS92d 5 3-6 IS92c 0-3 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Relative Frequency (%) Nakicenovic et al. et al. SRES 2000 Nakicenovic IIASA&TUW 2004 SRES 2000 Nakicenovic #20 20 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES Cumulative CO 2 Cumulative CO 2 of IPCC SRES scenarios and resulting CO of IPCC SRES scenarios and resulting CO 2 2 concentrations concentrations and climate sensitivity in o o C C temperature change based on MAGICC model temperature change based on MAGICC model and climate sensitivity in Global mean surface temperature change o C 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 2.5 7 Atmospheric concentrations in ppm CO 2 300 600 1000 6 4 2 0 <100 1000 2000 3000 IPCC SRES scenarios cumulative emissions 1900 – 2100 in GtC low high Vulnerability: Grü übler bler IIASA 2002 Gr IIASA 2002 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #21 21 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Distribution of Cumulative Carbon Emissions Distribution of Cumulative Carbon Emissions Across the Range of SRES Scenarios Across the Range of SRES Scenarios 6 6 6 GDP Very high-High Medium Medium-Low POPULATION TECHNOLOGY High High Medium Medium-Low Low 5 5 5 4 4 4 Number Number Number 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 500 500 500 1000 1000 1000 1500 1500 1500 2000 2000 2000 2500 2500 2500 Gt C Gt C Gt C Nakicenovic & & Slentoe Slentoe IIASA 2003 Nakicenovic IIASA 2003 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #22 22 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Distribution of Cumulative Carbon Emissions Distribution of Cumulative Carbon Emissions Across the Range of Post - - SRES Scenarios SRES Scenarios Across the Range of Post 20 20 20 GDP POPULATION Very high-High TECHNOLOGY Medium High High Medium Medium-Low Medium-Low Low 18 18 18 16 16 16 14 14 14 12 12 12 Number Number Number 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 500 500 500 1000 1000 1000 1500 1500 1500 2000 2000 2000 2500 2500 2500 Gt C Gt C Gt C Nakicenovic & & Slentoe Slentoe IIASA 2003 Nakicenovic IIASA 2003 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #23 23 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #
Climate Change Climate Change Impacts on Impacts on Cereal Production Cereal Production Potential of Potential of ECHAM4 Food Insecure Food Insecure Countries Countries 2080s 2080s HadCM2 Fischer et al., et al., Fischer IIASA, 2001 IIASA, 2001 CGCM1
Climate Change Climate Change Impacts on Impacts on Cereal Production Cereal Production Potential of Potential of ECHAM4 Food Insecure Food Insecure Countries Countries 2080s 2080s HadCM2 Fischer et al. et al. , , Fischer IIASA, 2001 IIASA, 2001 CGCM1
Population Population Density Density IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #26 26 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic # IIASA 2001 Grü Gr übler & bler & Prieler Prieler IIASA 2001
Electricity Use Electricity Use IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #27 27 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic # IIASA 2001 Grü Gr übler & bler & Prieler Prieler IIASA 2001
Electricity Use & Electricity Use & Population Density IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic #28 28 IIASA&TUW 2004 Nakicenovic # IIASA 2001 Grü Gr übler & bler & Prieler Prieler IIASA 2001
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