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Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths HOMEs 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference October 22, 2019 I N STIT U TE FO R G L O BA L E CO N O M I C R E S E A RC H California State C H A N N E L University I S L A

  1. Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference October 22, 2019 I N STIT U TE FO R G L O BA L E CO N O M I C R E S E A RC H California State C H A N N E L University I S L A N D S

  2. Support

  3. Housing Myths & Truths 1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in 2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housing in Ventura County

  4. Outline 1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

  5. Outline 1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

  6. Age and Gender Composition, 2017, Ventura County Male Female 0 25 50 75 Age

  7. Education Level of the Population, 2005 and 2017, Ventura County 5+ years of college 4 years of college 2 years of college 1 year of college Grade 12 Grade 11 Grade 10 Grade 9 2017 Grade 5, 6, 7, or 8 2005 Nursery school to grade 4 N/A or no schooling 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

  8. Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, Ventura County 78.5 Participation (%) 78.0 Labor Force 77.5 77.0 76.5 76.0 75.5 Unemployment 10 Rate (%) 8 6 4 2008 2012 2016

  9. Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017, Ventura County Educational, Health and Social Services ● Professional, Scientific, Management, ● Administrative, and Waste Management Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, ● Accommodations, and Food Services ● Manufacturing ● Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and ● Rental and Leasing ● Construction Other Services (Except Public ● Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and ● Hunting ● Public Administration ● Wholesale Trade ● Information and Communications ● $60,000 ● Transportation and Warehousing ● $90,000 ● ● Utilities $120,000 ● ● Active Duty Military $150,000 ● Mining 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

  10. Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017, Ventura County Education, Health and Educational, Health and Social Services ● Professional, Scientific, Management, Social Services ● Administrative, and Waste Management Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, ● Accommodations, and Food Services ● Manufacturing ● Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and ● Rental and Leasing ● Construction Other Services (Except Public ● Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and ● Hunting ● Public Administration ● Wholesale Trade ● Information and Communications ● $60,000 ● Transportation and Warehousing ● $90,000 ● ● Utilities $120,000 ● ● Active Duty Military $150,000 ● Mining 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

  11. Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017, Ventura County Education, Health and Educational, Health and Social Services ● Professional, Scientific, Management, Social Services ● Administrative, and Waste Management Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, ● Accommodations, and Food Services ● Manufacturing ● Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and ● Rental and Leasing ● Construction Other Services (Except Public ● Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and ● Hunting ● Public Administration ● Wholesale Trade Information and ● Information and Communications Communications ● $60,000 ● Transportation and Warehousing ● $90,000 ● ● Utilities $120,000 ● ● Active Duty Military $150,000 ● Mining 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

  12. Comparison of County Residents Employment to County Industry Jobs, 2017, Ventura County Educational, Health and Social Services ● ● Professional, Scientific, Management, ● ● Administrative, and Waste Management Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, ● ● Accommodations, and Food Services ● ● Manufacturing ● ● Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and ● ● Rental and Leasing ● ● Construction Other Services (Except Public ● ● Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and ● ● Hunting ● ● Public Administration ● ● Wholesale Trade ● ● Information and Communications ● ● Transportation and Warehousing Share of Employment of County Residents ● ● ● Utilities ● Share of Jobs in the County ● ● Active Duty Military ● ● Mining 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

  13. Nominal and Real Incomes, Ventura County $85,000 Income/Real Income $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 Median household income (2017 dollars) Median household income (nominal) $65,000 2007 2010 2013 2016

  14. Population and Housing Growth in Ventura County 105 104 Population index 103 Housing index 102 101 100 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

  15. Average Household Size Trends, Ventura County Average household size 3.05 2.95 2.85 2.75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 All residents Owners Renters

  16. Home Ownership in Ventura County Homeownership rates (%) 68 66 64 62 2 Change (%) 1 0 −1 −2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

  17. Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County Median Sales Price $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Median Rental Price $3,000 All Homes $2,750 $2,500 $2,250 $2,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

  18. Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County 140 Price Index Indices Rent Index 120 100 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

  19. Housing Burden A household is considered to be cost-burdened if spending more than 30 percent of their income for housing costs

  20. Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County Quartile 1 2 3 4 Share of households burdened 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 2005 2010 2015

  21. Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County Quartile 1 2 3 4 Renters Owners Share of households burdened 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% 2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015

  22. Current Ventura County Conditions • Ventura County has been experiencing historically low unemployment levels and residents are largely working within the county • Housing stock in Ventura County has not kept up with population growth and we now see lower home ownership rates and increased household sizes for renters • With stagnant real incomes and increased home and rental prices, a large share of Ventura County residents are housing-burdened • Burdens have increased for lower half of the income distribution

  23. Outline 1 Ventura County Currently 2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors 3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership 4 Conclusion

  24. Comparison of Age Trends 38 Average Age 37 36 35 2005 2010 2015 California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County

  25. Comparison of Age Trends 38 Average Age 37 36 35 34 2005 2010 2015 Los Angeles County Ventura County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties

  26. Comparison of Education Levels • Education levels in Ventura County are comparable to State levels and that of our neighboring counties • All areas characterized by a majority of people holding high school diplomas or higher education

  27. Comparison of Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rate (%) 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 California excluding Ventura San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Los Angeles County Ventura County

  28. Comparison of Commute Times, 2017

  29. Comparison of Household Sizes Renters 3.1 Average household size 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 Owners 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2005 2010 2015 California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County

  30. Comparison of Household Sizes Renters Average household size 3.0 2.8 2.6 Owners 3.0 2.8 2.6 2005 2010 2015 Los Angeles County Ventura County San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties

  31. Comparison of 2017 Home Ownership Rates 2005 2017 Homeownership rates (%) 60 40 20 0 California excluding Ventura San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties Los Angeles County Ventura County

  32. Comparison of Median Sales Prices $600,000 $500,000 Median Sale Price $400,000 California $300,000 Ventura County $200,000 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

  33. Comparison of Median Sales Prices $600,000 $500,000 Median Sale Price $400,000 Los Angeles County San Luis Obispo County $300,000 Santa Barbara County Ventura County 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

  34. Comparison of Median Sales Prices $600,000 Median Sale Price $570,000 $540,000 $510,000 Los Angeles County Santa Barbara County San Luis Obispo County Ventura County 2017 2018 2019

  35. Comparison of Median Rents $3,000 Median Rental Price $2,500 California $2,000 Ventura County 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

  36. Comparison of Median Rents Los Angeles County $4,000 San Luis Obispo County Median Rental Price Santa Barbara County $3,500 Ventura County $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

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