T HE 2012 A MERICAN V ALUES S URVEY How Catholics and the Unaffiliated Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond Public Public Religion Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research Research Research Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate Institute Institute
Survey Methodology • Fourth annual American Values Survey • Sample Size: N = 3,003 Americans (MOE = +/- 2.0 percentage points) • Conducted between September 13 and September 30, 2012 • Bilingual (English and Spanish) telephone interviews (1,201 reached by cell phone) • Wave one of two-wave study (pre- and post-election) • Funded by Ford Foundation and the Nathan Cummings Foundation The 2012 American Values Survey 2
R ELIGIOUS C HANGE IN A MERICA The 2012 American Values Survey 3
Changes from Childhood Religion Childhood Current Net Affiliation Affiliation Gain/Loss Catholic 31.4 22.0 -9.4 White Mainline 18.7 14.9 -3.8 Protestant Black Protestant 9.4 8.5 -0.9 White Evangelical 20.3 19.9 -0.4 Protestant Other Christian 9.5 10.4 0.9 Non-Christian 3.7 5.7 2 Religious Unaffiliated 7 18.6 11.6 The 2012 American Values Survey 4
Religious Affiliation by Generation Unaffiliated 18-29 32 9 12 8 10 11 13 6 White Evangelical Protestant White Mainline Protestant 30-49 19 18 14 13 11 8 11 6 White Catholic Hispanic/Other Catholic Black Protestant 50-64 14 25 15 18 6 10 8 5 Other Christian Non-Christian Religious 65+ 9 30 20 19 5 6 7 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 The 2012 American Values Survey 5
Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion Don't believe in God/Teachings 12 Personal experience/Grew out of it 23 Goes against science and logic 5 Dislike organized religion/Religion causes problems 5 Hypocritical Judgmental/Controlling 2 Social/Sexuality issues 4 11 Sex abuse scandal within Catholic Church 5 Busy/Not interested No reason/Not sure 8 8 Other/Don't Know 16 The 2012 American Values Survey 6
U NDERSTANDING THE R ELIGIOUSLY U NAFFILIATED OR “T HE N ONES ” Atheists and Agnostics Seculars Unattached Believers The 2012 American Values Survey 7
The Three Faces of the Unaffiliated 1 23 Secular 39 Atheist/Agnostic Unattached Believers Uncategorized 36 The 2012 American Values Survey 8
Religious Beliefs of Unaffiliated God is a person God is an impersonal force I do not believe in God Other/Don't know/Refused (VOL.) Atheist/ Agnostic 6 30 56 8 Secular 30 42 24 4 Unattached Believers 69 26 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 The 2012 American Values Survey 9
Racial/Ethnic Difference among Unaffiliated Subgroups White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Black Other/Mixed Race DK/Refused Atheist/ Agnostic 76 10 2 10 Secular 64 14 7 10 Unattached Believers 56 12 23 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 The 2012 American Values Survey 10
U NDERSTANDING THE C OMPLEXITY OF A MERICAN C ATHOLICS “Social Justice” vs. “Right to Life” Catholics The 2012 American Values Survey 11
Social Justice vs. Right to Life Orientations Among Catholics and Former Catholics Social justice and the obligation to help the poor Issues like abortion and the right to life 70 66 60 63 60 50 52 51 40 40 36 30 31 27 27 20 10 0 All Catholics White Catholics Hispanic Catholics Catholics who attend Catholics who attend monthly or less weekly or more The 2012 American Values Survey 12
Ethnic Complexity among Catholics: Differences between Whites & Hispanics White Catholics Hispanic Catholics 70 60 59 55 50 48 40 40 30 20 10 0 Abortion should be Illegal all/most cases Favor life in prison over death penalty The 2012 American Values Survey 13
T HE 2012 P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION Religion and Voting Coalitions The 2012 American Values Survey 14
Most Important Issues Influencing Vote Among Likely Voters Republicans Democrats All Americans 70 66 60 61 54 50 40 30 29 20 18 14 10 9 8 8 6 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 0 The Economy Health care National Abortion Immigration Same-sex Other/Don't security marriage Know/Refused The 2012 American Values Survey 15
Religious Voting Coalitions Among Likely Voters White Evangelical Protestant Obama’s Coalition Romney’s Coalition White Mainline Protestant 8 9 23 2 * White Catholic 15 11 37 3 Hispanic/Other 7 Catholic 14 Other Christian 19 18 8 19 6 Black Protestant Non-Christian Religious Unaffiliated The 2012 American Values Survey 16
Presidential Vote by Religion Among Likely Voters Obama Romney 100 97 80 76 73 60 52 49 47 40 45 22 20 20 2 0 White White Catholic Religiously Black Evangelical Mainline Unaffiliated Protestant Protestants Protestants The 2012 American Values Survey 17
Complexity of Catholic Voters By Ethnicity and Gender Obama Romney 80 70 71 60 50 54 54 54 49 47 40 42 42 42 30 20 23 10 0 All Catholics Hispanic * Women White Men *Note: Hispanic Catholic results are among registered voters and represent small sample size (n=98). The 2012 American Values Survey 18
Complexity of Catholic Voters By Religious Orientation and Behavior Obama Romney Other/DK 100% 37 90% 47 59 36 67 80% 70% 60% 60 59 50% 49 40% 37 30% 27 20% 10% 0% All Catholic Attend Attend Right to life Social Justice Voters Weekly/More Monthly/Less (28% of (63% of (45% of (55% of Voters) voters) voters) voters) The 2012 American Values Survey 19
C ONTRACEPTION AND G ENDER R OLES The 2012 American Values Survey 20
Contraception Mandate and Religious Objections Religiously affiliated colleges and hospitals should have to provide employees with no-cost contraception coverage. Yes, Even if Organization has Religious Objections Yes, Religious Objections Not Specified 56 All Americans 56 57 All Catholics 54 50 White Catholics 45 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 The 2012 American Values Survey 21
Women and Raising Children Women are naturally better suited to raise children than men. Percent who agree Men Women 80 70 69 65 60 62 50 54 54 52 51 49 48 47 40 30 20 10 0 All Americans 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ The 2012 American Values Survey 22
L OOKING A HEAD : I MPORTANCE OF V OTER E NGAGEMENT The 2012 American Values Survey 23
Voter Engagement Among Unaffiliated and Catholics 100 20 23 15 White evangelical 17 White mainline 14 White Catholic 16 Hispanic/Other Catholic 50 8 Black protestant 5 8 Other Christian 9 Non-Christian 10 8 Unaffiliated 6 6 19 16 0 All Americans Likely Voters The 2012 American Values Survey 24
The 2012 American Values Survey How Catholics and the Unaffiliated Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond Follow us Online: www.facebook.com/publicreligion www.twitter.com/publicreligion www.publicreligion.org Public Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research Research Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate Institute
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