Sustainability and Carbon Sustainability and Carbon Management in the Chemical Management in the Chemical and Energy I ndustries and Energy I ndustries Jeffrey J. Siirola Jeffrey J. Siirola Eastman Chemical Company Eastman Chemical Company Kingsport, TN 37662 Kingsport, TN 37662
Worldwide Chemical Industry Growth Worldwide Chemical Industry Growth � Driven in previous decades by materials Driven in previous decades by materials � substitution substitution � Products derived mostly from methane, Products derived mostly from methane, � ethane, propane, aromatics ethane, propane, aromatics � Likely driven in the future by GDP growth Likely driven in the future by GDP growth � � Supply/demand displacements are � Supply/demand displacements are beginning to affect the relative cost and beginning to affect the relative cost and availability of some raw materials availability of some raw materials
Population and GDP Estimates Population and GDP Estimates 2000 2025 2050 2000 2025 2050 Region Pop,M pcGDP,k pcGDP,k$ $ Pop,M pcGDP,k pcGDP,k$ $ Pop,M pcGDP,k pcGDP,k$ $ Region Pop,M Pop,M Pop,M North America 306 30.6 370 40 440 50 North America 306 30.6 370 40 440 50 Latin America Latin America 517 517 6.7 6.7 700 700 20 20 820 820 35 35 Europe 727 14.7 710 30 660 40 Europe 727 14.7 710 30 660 40 Africa 799 2.0 1260 12 1800 25 Africa 799 2.0 1260 12 1800 25 Asia 3716 3.6 4760 20 5310 35 Asia 3716 3.6 4760 20 5310 35 World 6065 6.3 7800 20 9030 33 World 6065 6.3 7800 20 9030 33
Process Industry Growth Process Industry Growth Current North America = 1.0 Current North America = 1.0 2000 2000- -25 Growth 25 Growth 2025- -50 Growth 50 Growth 2000 2000 2025 Region Prod New Plant %Tot New Plant %Tot Region Prod New Plant %Tot New Plant %Tot North America 1.0 0.6 5 0.8 5 North America 1.0 0.6 5 0.8 5 Latin America Latin America 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 9 9 1.6 1.6 10 10 Europe 1.1 1.1 9 0.5 4 Europe 1.1 1.1 9 0.5 4 Africa 0.2 1.5 12 3.2 21 Africa 0.2 1.5 12 3.2 21 Asia 1.4 8.2 65 9.3 60 Asia 1.4 8.2 65 9.3 60 World 4.1 12.6 15.4 World 4.1 12.6 15.4
Medium Term Economic Trends Medium Term Economic Trends � Much slower growth in the developed world � Much slower growth in the developed world � Accelerating growth in the developing world Accelerating growth in the developing world � � World population stabilizing at 9 World population stabilizing at 9- -10 billion 10 billion � � 6 � 6- -7 X world GDP growth over next 50 or so 7 X world GDP growth over next 50 or so years (in constant dollars) years (in constant dollars) � 5 5- -6 X existing production capacity for most 6 X existing production capacity for most � commodities (steel, chemicals, lumber, etc.) commodities (steel, chemicals, lumber, etc.) � 3.5 X increase in energy demand 3.5 X increase in energy demand � – 7X increase in electricity demand 7X increase in electricity demand –
Is such a future "sustainable"? Is such a future "sustainable"?
Sustainable Chemical Processes Sustainable Chemical Processes � Attempt to satisfy Attempt to satisfy… … � – Investor demand for unprecedented capital Investor demand for unprecedented capital – productivity productivity – Social demand for low present and future Social demand for low present and future – environmental impact environmental impact � While producing While producing… … � – Highest quality products Highest quality products – – Minimum use of raw material Minimum use of raw material – – Minimum use of energy Minimum use of energy – – Minimum waste Minimum waste – � In an ethical and socially responsible manner In an ethical and socially responsible manner �
Sustainability Definition Sustainability Definition "Sustainability is the path of continuous "Sustainability is the path of continuous improvement, wherein the products and improvement, wherein the products and services required by society are delivered services required by society are delivered with progressively less negative impacts with progressively less negative impacts upon the Earth." upon the Earth." AIChE Institute for Sustainability AIChE Institute for Sustainability
AIChE Sustainability Index AIChE Sustainability Index Components Components � Environmental Performance Environmental Performance � � Safety Performance Safety Performance � � Product Stewardship Product Stewardship � � Social Responsibility Social Responsibility � � Value Value- -Chain Management Chain Management � � Strategic Commitment Strategic Commitment �
Raw Materials Raw Materials
Raw Material Selection Raw Material Selection Characteristics Characteristics � Availability Availability � � Accessability Accessability � � Concentration Concentration � � Cost of extraction (impact, resources) Cost of extraction (impact, resources) � � Competition for material Competition for material � � Alternatives Alternatives � � "Close" in chemical or physical structure "Close" in chemical or physical structure � � "Close" in oxidation state "Close" in oxidation state �
"Oxidation States" of Carbon "Oxidation States" of Carbon � - -4 Methane 4 Methane � � - -2 Hydrocarbons, Alcohols, Oil 2 Hydrocarbons, Alcohols, Oil � � - -1 Aromatics, Lipids 1 Aromatics, Lipids � � 0 Carbohydrates, Coal � 0 Carbohydrates, Coal � + 2 Carbon Monoxide + 2 Carbon Monoxide � � + 4 Carbon Dioxide + 4 Carbon Dioxide � � - -2 2 – – - -0.5 Most polymers 0.5 Most polymers � � - -1.5 1.5 – – 0 Most oxygenated organics 0 Most oxygenated organics �
Matching Raw Material and Desired Matching Raw Material and Desired Natural Gas Methane Ethane Product Oxidation States Product Oxidation States Ethylene, Polyethylene Oil Methanol, Ethanol Acetone Ethylene Glycol, Ethyl Acetate Polystyrene, Polyvinylchloride Glycerin, Phenol Coal Polyester Carbohydrates Acetic Acid Carbon Monoxide Carbon Dioxide Limestone
Energy and Oxidation State Energy and Oxidation State Carbon Carbon Energy of Formation -4 -2 0 + 2 + 4 + 4 (salt) Oxidation State
Global Reduced Carbon Global Reduced Carbon � Recoverable Gas Reserves Recoverable Gas Reserves – – 75 GTC 75 GTC � � Recoverable Oil Reserves Recoverable Oil Reserves – – 120 GTC 120 GTC � � Recoverable Coal Recoverable Coal – – 925 GTC 925 GTC � � Estimated Oil Shale Estimated Oil Shale – – 225 GTC 225 GTC � � Estimated Tar Sands Estimated Tar Sands – – 250 GTC 250 GTC � � Estimated Remaining Fossil (at future higher price / yet Estimated Remaining Fossil (at future higher price / yet- - � to- -be be- -developed technology) developed technology) – – 2500 GTC 2500 GTC to � Possible Methane Hydrates Possible Methane Hydrates – – ????? GTC ????? GTC � � Terrestrial Biomass Terrestrial Biomass – – 500 GTC 500 GTC � � Peat and Soil Carbon Peat and Soil Carbon – – 2000 GTC 2000 GTC � – Annual Terrestrial Biomass Production Annual Terrestrial Biomass Production – – 60 GTC/yr 60 GTC/yr – (more than half in tropical forest and tropical savanna) (more than half in tropical forest and tropical savanna) – Organic Chemical Production Organic Chemical Production – – 0.3 GTC/yr 0.3 GTC/yr –
Global Oxidized Carbon Global Oxidized Carbon � Atmospheric CO Atmospheric CO 2 (380ppm v ) – – 750 GTC 750 GTC � 2 (380ppm v ) � Estimated Oceanic Inorganic Carbon Estimated Oceanic Inorganic Carbon � (30ppm) – – 40000 GTC 40000 GTC (30ppm) � Estimated Limestone/Dolomite/Chalk Estimated Limestone/Dolomite/Chalk – – � 100000000 GTC 100000000 GTC
If Carbon Raw Material is a Lower If Carbon Raw Material is a Lower Oxidation State than the Desired Product Oxidation State than the Desired Product � Direct or indirect partial oxidation Direct or indirect partial oxidation � – Readily available, inexpensive ultimate oxidant Readily available, inexpensive ultimate oxidant – – Exothermic, favorable chemical equilibria Exothermic, favorable chemical equilibria – – Possible selectivity and purification issues – Possible selectivity and purification issues � Disproportionation coproducing hydrogen Disproportionation coproducing hydrogen � – Endothermic, sometimes high temperature Endothermic, sometimes high temperature – – Generally good selectivity Generally good selectivity – – OK if corresponding coproduct H OK if corresponding coproduct H 2 needed locally – 2 needed locally � Carbonylation chemistry Carbonylation chemistry � – CO overoxidation can be readily reversed CO overoxidation can be readily reversed –
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