The 7th AIM International Workshop The 7th AIM International Workshop The 7th AIM International Workshop 15 - 17 March 2002 , Ohyama Memorial Hall 15- -17 March 2002 17 March 2002, , Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall 15 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Studies on Climate Change and Studies on Climate Change and Related Activities Related Activities Tsuneyuki Morita Morita Tsuneyuki National Institute for Environmental studies, Japan National Institute for Environmental studies, Japan
International Activities International Activities � IPCC SRSDCC (Jun. 01, Washington) IPCC SRSDCC (Jun. 01, Washington) � � Energy Modeling Forum (Aug. 01, Snowmass) Energy Modeling Forum (Aug. 01, Snowmass) � � Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment � (Oct. 01, Capetown Capetown) ) (Oct. 01, � IPCC TGCIA (November, Barbados) IPCC TGCIA (November, Barbados) � � Global Modeling Forum (Dec. 01, Macao) Global Modeling Forum (Dec. 01, Macao) � � Tyndall Center Workshop Tyndall Center Workshop � (Feb. 02, Southampton) n) (Feb. 02, Southampto
Linkages between Climate Change Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development Mitigation and Sustainable Development • Environmental & economic policies SD • Human and social capital CCM • Infrastructure policy • Innovation and technology • Avoided CC impacts CCM • Costs and distribution of costs SD • Ancillary benefits policy • Forestry/agriculture impacts
Multiple Users Among Multiple Users Among Conventions Conventions CCD Ramsar CBD CCD Ramsar FCCC CBD FCCC SBSTA CST SBSTTA STRP IPCC IPCC MA Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments
Proximate Forces Socioeconomic Drivers ・ Climate Change ・ Demographic Change ・ Land Use & Cover Change Interventions ・ Economic growth/decline ・ Factor inputs (e.g., irrigation, fertilizers) ・ Governance ・ Pollution ・ Behavior ・ Resource Use ・ Trade, market,and policy framework ・ Nutrient Release ・ Institutional and legal framework ・ Species Introductions ・ Science and Technology Demand Interventions Impacts on Society Food Security, Health, Interventions Employment, Tourism, Vulnerability Ecosystem Structure, Processes and Resilience Supply Ecosystem Goods and Services ・ Biodiversity ・ ・ Food, Fiber, Fuel Biogeochemical cycling ・ ・ Water Supply (Quantify and Quality) Evolution and speciation ・ ・ Primary production Vector Control ・ ・ Soil formation Carbon sequestration Feedback ・ ・ Species distribution and population Storm buffering dynamics Framework of Ecosystem Assessment
Assessment Outputs Assessment Outputs � Conceptual Framework (2003) � Conceptual Framework (2003) � Assessment Reports (2004) � Assessment Reports (2004) � Sub � Sub- -global Assessment global Assessment � Condition/Trends Assessment � Condition/Trends Assessment � Scenario Assessment � Scenario Assessment � Response Options Assessment � Response Options Assessment � Summary Volume ( � Summary Volume (SPMs SPMs of 4 reports) of 4 reports) � Synthesis Reports � Synthesis Reports � Biodiversity (2004) � Biodiversity (2004) � Desertification (2005) � Desertification (2005) � Wetlands (2005) � Wetlands (2005) � Private Sector (2005) � Private Sector (2005) � Human Well � Human Well- -being (2005) being (2005)
Post-SRES scenarios for climate change simulations C O 2 E m i s s i o n s 1 8 . 0 0 A 1 B - 4 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 4 5 0 M E S S A G E 1 6 . 0 0 B 1 - 4 5 0 I M A G E CO 2 CO B 2 - 4 5 0 M A R I A 2 1 4 . 0 0 A 2 - 4 5 0 P E T R O A 1 F I - 4 5 0 M i n i C A M 1 2 . 0 0 A 1 B - 5 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E 1 0 . 0 0 A 2 - 5 5 0 A S F GtC B 2 - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E 8 . 0 0 B 1 - 5 5 0 W o r l d S c a n A 1 F I - 5 5 0 M i n i C A M 6 . 0 0 B 1 - 5 5 0 L D N E A 1 B - 6 5 0 A I M 4 . 0 0 A 2 - 6 5 0 P E T R O A 1 F I - 6 5 0 M i n i C A M 2 . 0 0 A 2 - 7 5 0 A S F A 1 F I - 7 5 0 M i n i C A M 0 . 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 S O 2 E m i s s i o n s 1 4 0 . 0 0 A 1 B - 4 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 4 5 0 M E S S A G E 1 2 0 . 0 0 B 1 - 4 5 0 I M A G E B 2 - 4 5 0 M A R I A A 2 - 4 5 0 P E T R O SOx SOx 1 0 0 . 0 0 A 1 F I - 4 5 0 M i n i C A M A 1 B - 5 5 0 A I M A 1 T - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E 8 0 . 0 0 A 2 - 5 5 0 A S F MtS B 2 - 5 5 0 M E S S A G E 6 0 . 0 0 B 1 - 5 5 0 W o r l d S c a n A 1 F I - 5 5 0 M i n i C A M B 1 - 5 5 0 L D N E 4 0 . 0 0 A 1 B - 6 5 0 A I M A 2 - 6 5 0 P E T R O 2 0 . 0 0 A 1 F I - 6 5 0 M i n i C A M A 2 - 7 5 0 A S F A 1 F I - 7 5 0 M i n i C A M 0 . 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300
Recommendation on new IPCC SRES Recommendation on new IPCC SRES � Scenarios with a starting year updated from Scenarios with a starting year updated from � 1990 to 2000 1990 to 2000 � More sophisticated socio More sophisticated socio- -economic economic � scenarios with spatial dynamics spatial dynamics scenarios with � Adding other substances, such as Adding other substances, such as black black � carbon, organic carbon, nitrate aerosols, carbon, organic carbon, nitrate aerosols, mineral dust mineral dust
Necessary improvement of post- -SRES analyses SRES analyses Necessary improvement of post � analyses of analyses of costs and benefits of different time paths costs and benefits of different time paths for for � stabilization; stabilization; � analyses of analyses of ancillary benefits and costs ancillary benefits and costs, notably those , notably those � related to local and regional air pollution (ozone, PM, related to local and regional air pollution (ozone, PM, ammonia, SO 2 , NO NO x , etc.); ammonia, SO 2 , x , etc.); � implications of stabilization of implications of stabilization of radiative radiative forcing rather than forcing rather than � CO2 concentration; ; CO2 concentration � detailed analyses of detailed analyses of land land- -use policies use policies accounting for accounting for biofuel biofuel � supply in mitigation scenarios and the demand for food, supply in mitigation scenarios and the demand for food, fiber and water resources; and water resources; fiber � analyses of analyses of different regional emissions distributions different regional emissions distributions based based � on different equity principles. on different equity principles.
A few proposals for A few proposals for new emission scenario development new emission scenario development � IPCC TGCIA IPCC TGCIA � � Kassel Kassel University University � � Energy Modelling Forum Energy Modelling Forum �
Forum for Globally-Integrated Environmental Assessment Modeling Environment Environment & Nature & Nature Institutions Institutions Human Human Global Global Element Element Economy Economy � New Modeling Forum for General Environmental Audiences � Dutch initiative � More attention to sustainability rather than innovation � Less focusing on developing regions � Qualitative approach want to increase its voice
Keywords in the Tyndall Workshop Keywords in the Tyndall Workshop � Ancillary benefits and innovation Ancillary benefits and innovation � for the cost reduction of Kyoto for the cost reduction of Kyoto � Adaptation effects Adaptation effects for determine for determine � the long term stabilization level the long term stabilization level of global climate, which is close of global climate, which is close related to the target for the to the target for the related second term commitment second term commitment
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