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STRATEGO WP2 Enhanced National Heating and Cooling Strategies - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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STRATEGO WP2 Enhanced National Heating and Cooling Strategies David Connolly Associate Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University david@plan.aau.dk June 2015 INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGO 2 Keywords Heating and Cooling Planning

  1. Our Philosophy  Where will we end up , rather than where should we start: 2050 Analysis  The future will require radical technological change : EnergyPLAN  All sectors of the energy system will Consequences for a need to ne connected: EnergyPLAN Variety of Alternatives  Account for the intermittency of renewables such as wind: Hourly Analysis  Free from existing market regulations : Socio-Economic Analysis 37

  2. Existing EnergyPLAN Models Existing Models www.EnergyPLAN.eu/models • Croatia • China • Czech Republic • Denmark • Hungary • Ireland • Italy • Latvia • Macedonia • Mexico • New Zealand • Norway • Romania • Sweden • United Kingdom 38

  3. Modelling Steps Results Forecast for Energy Starting Point (Energy, the Future Efficiency (2010) Environment, (BAU 2050) Alternatives Economy) • Extra Heat Savings • Extra District Heating • Different Individual Heating Options 39

  4. Modelling Steps for Each Country in STRATEGO (i.e. Alternatives in STRATEGO) Step Technologies 0a. 2010 2010 historical model (Calibration) 2050 business-as-usual scenario based on the latest 0b. BAU 2050 European Commission forecasts 1: Heat savings ADD: Heat savings COMPARE: Gas and water (i.e. district heating) 2: Heat networks networks COMPARE: Oil boilers, Biomass boilers, heat pumps, 3: Individual heating electric heating ADD: Geothermal, waste incineration, excess industrial 4: Renewable Heat heat, large-scale solar thermal 5: Renewable Electricity ADD: Large heat pumps, electric boilers 6. Heat Roadmap OPTIMISE: Synergies in the new efficient heat sector COMPARE: Individual and District Cooling for the 7. Cooling services sector in urban areas 40

  5. What Should We Measure? • Energy (Primary Energy Supply) • Environment (Carbon Emissions) • Economy (Total Annual Energy System Costs) 41

  6. RESULTS 42

  7. Final Levels of Each Energy Efficiency Measure in the Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling Strategies District Heat Supply Individual Heating Heat Roadmaps Heat Savings District Heating from Renewable Technology Heat & Excess Heat* Reduction as a % of Total Heat % of District Heat Percentage of the BAU Demand after Heat Primary Technology Production 2050 Heat Demand Savings (vs. % today) Heat pumps are Czech Republic 40% 40% (25%) 65% recommended as the primary Croatia 40% 40% (15%) 45% technology with small shares for Italy 30% 60% (<5%) 40% biomass boilers, and solar thermal. The Romania 50% 40% (20%) 50% exact mix of each technology is not United Kingdom 40% 70% (<5%) 45% optimised. 43 *Doesn’t include excess heat from thermal power plants or thermal boilers.

  8. Change in HR Scenarios Heat Roadmap Scenario in 2050 Compared to a Business-As-Usual Energy System for the Year 2050 Czech Republic Croatia Italy Romania United Kingdom 0% Change for the Heating, Cooling, and Electricity Sectors -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% Primary Energy Supply Carbon Dioxide Emissions Total Annual Costs 44

  9. Changes for Heating, Cooling, and Electricity Heating, Cooling and Electricity Energy Environment Economy Sectors Only Change in Energy Heat Roadmap vs. Change in Primary Change in Carbon System Costs BAU 2050 Energy Supply Dioxide (excludes vehicle costs) Billion Unit TWh/year % Mt/year % % € /year Czech Republic -109 -30% -35 -73% -3 -14% Croatia -18 -32% -5 -47% -1 -12% Italy -380 -32% -101 -46% -13 -13% Romania -118 -38% -36 -75% -3 -14% United Kingdom -444 -35% -109 -49% -15 -14% All Five Countries -1069 -34% -286 -52% -35 -14% 45

  10. Contextualising the Changes In total, the energy demand is reduced by ~1000 TWh/year if the Heat Roadmap scenarios are implemented in all five STRATEGO countries, which is the same as all of the energy required today in the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania combined. Similarly, the combined reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of almost 300 Mt/year is more than all of the carbon dioxide emissions emitted from the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania today (which is ~225 Mt/year). 46

  11. Main Results for WP2 All Five Annual Change for Energy Efficiency Heating, Cooling, & Investments STRATEGO Electricity Sectors Countries Heat Savings Energy ~ € 600 Billion -30% Total Additional Energy Efficiency District Carbon Investments Heating Dioxide Between 2010 & ~ € 275 Billion -50% 2050 ~ € 1.1 Trillion Individual Costs Heat Pumps -15% ~ € 225 Billion 47

  12. Change in Total Investments in the Heat Roamdap Scenarios Compared to Today (Billion € ) -300 -200 -100 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 Heat savings Individual Heat Pumps DH - Combined Heat & Power Status of Some Key Technologies in the Heat Roadmap Compared to the Ref 2010 Scenario Solar PV, CSP, and Tidal DH - Heat Pumps All Five STRATEGO Countries Combined District Heating Substations Total Investments vs. Today New & Growing Investments DH - Fuel & Electric Boilers Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Hydro District Heating Pipes Individual Solar Thermal DH - Solar Thermal DH - Geothermal DH - Industrial Excess DH - Thermal Storage Declining Investments Individual Biomass Boilers Individual Coal and Oil Boilers Individual Gas Boilers 48 Condensing Power Plants

  13. Key Messages: Heating  Heat savings should begin today and be strongly supported to the point where their total heat demand is reduced to 60-90 kWh/m2  In existing buildings while they are undergoing other refurbishments and in new buildings,  Share of district heating can be expanded significantly in all countries  Urban Areas  Electric heat pumps are the most sustainable option for individual heating  Rural Areas  In all the countries there are large amounts of renewable and excess heat available, but there is a limited supply of renewable electricity, while there is likely to be a shortfall of biomass if the aim is to decarbonise the entire energy system.  The results are extremely sensitive to cost assumptions, but the conclusions are very robust 49

  14. Key Recommendations for the Heat Sector Urban Everywhere Rural Areas Areas District Heating Primarily Electric Heat Savings Networks Heat Pumps Smaller Shares of Balance Savings vs. High Heat Density Solar Thermal & Supply Areas Biomass Boilers Remaining 30-60% 30-50% Total Supply 40-70% of of the Heat Reduction the Heat Demand Demand 50

  15. DETAILED DISCUSSION ABOUT THE KEY DECISIONS FOR HEATING 51

  16. 3 options for the Heat Sector 52

  17. 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings  Reduce our demand for heat:  Space heating  Hot water 53

  18. How much Heat should we Save?  We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 54

  19. How much Heat should we Save?  We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 55

  20. How much Heat should we Save?  We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings 30-50% Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 56

  21. Same Recommendation, but Different Numbers Reported Eurima Deep Renovation says: Eurima and Heat Roadmap Europe says “Final Energy ~75%” “Heat Demand Reduction up 50%” _ • Heat Coming Out of the • Energy Going into the Heating Unit Heating Unit Hypothetical 10 Units 9 Units Boiler with an of Fuel of Heat Efficiency of 90% 57

  22. 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas  Reduce our  Share a heating  Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building:  Space heating  Gas Grid  Oil  Hot water  Water (i.e.  Biomass district heating)  Heat Pumps  Electric Heating 30-50% Marginal 58

  23. 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas  Reduce our  Share a heating  Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building:  Space heating  Gas Grid  Oil  Hot water  Water (i.e.  Biomass district heating)  Heat Pumps  Electric Heating 30-50% Gas or Marginal District Heating? 59

  24. 60

  25. 1. Northern Europe needs heating and southern Europe needs cooling 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for a Local Problem 3. District Heating is Expensive 4. Heat savings will remove the need for heat supply 61

  26. 1. Northern Europe needs heating and southern Europe needs cooling

  27. European Heating Index (Source: ecoheatcool) +/- 20% 63

  28. European Heating Index (Source: ecoheatcool) +/- 20% 64

  29. EU Heat Atlas 30-50% of Heat Currently Feasible for DH 65

  30. HRE Heat Atlas at a Local Level 66

  31. HRE Mapping: Best Places to Start District Heating in the EU 67

  32. Surplus Heat in Different MS 68

  33. GIS Mapping:  Heating and Cooling Demands Many Heat Sources  Power and Heat Generation  Waste Incineration  Industrial waste heat potential  Geothermal heat  Solar Thermal  Bioenergy Potential 69

  34. Interactive Online Maps 70

  35. 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for a Local Problem

  36. Today’s Heat Sector Demand Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Engines Mobility Power Exchange Electricity Fuels Power Plants Cooling Heat-Only Heating Boilers 72

  37. The New Heat Sector Resources Conversion Exchange and Demand Storage Engines & Motors Fuel Storage Mobility Fluctuating (Vehicles) Wind etc. Synthetic Fuel Power Electricity Exchange Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage CHP Fuels Heat Pump Cooling (or Quad) Thermal Storage Heating Fluctuating Solar etc. Heat 73

  38. Integrating 40% Wind Power with District Heating Resources Conversion Exchange and Demand Relocation Storage Engines & Motors Fuel Storage Mobility Fluctuating (Vehicles) Wind etc. Synthetic Fuel Power Electricity Exchange Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage CHP Fuels Heat Pump Cooling (or Quad) Thermal Storage Heating Fluctuating Solar etc. Heat 74

  39. Denmark 50% Wind for December 2013 75

  40. Sustainable: Flexible, so more Solar (Marstal: >50% solar in heat supply) 76

  41. Storage Costs  Electricity = € 170/kWh  Thermal = € 0.5-3/kWh 77

  42. EnergyPLAN: Version 12 www.EnergyPLAN.eu _ Hourly Modelling of Electricity, Heating, Cooling, Industry, and Transport • Over 1000 Registered Users across more than 100 countries • Lots of free training provided: – Exercises with solutions – FAQs – Forum – Quarterly online workshops – User Manual • Can be used to model any national energy system • Freeware software 78

  43. 3. District Heating is Expensive

  44. 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas  Reduce our  Share a heating  Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building:  Space heating  Gas Grid  Oil  Hot water  Water (i.e.  Biomass district heating)  Heat Pumps  Electric Heating 30-50% Gas or Marginal District Heating? 80

  45. Gas Grid High quality energy for a low quality demand Natural Gas Gas Syngas Biogas Grid Gasified Biomass 81

  46. District Heating Low quality energy for a low quality demand Power Plants Electric Industry Boilers Waste Heat Incin- Pumps District eration Heating Geo- Biofuel thermal Plants Solar Hydroge Thermal n Plants 82

  47. The Current Situation 80 Energy Balance for the EU27 in 2010 (EJ) 70 60 Non-specified 50 Non-energy use 40 Transport Electricity 30 Heat for Industry 20 Heat for Buildings 10 0 Primary Energy Final Consumption End Use Supply 83

  48. District Heating Analysis Energy System Modelling GIS Mapping (EnergyPLAN) (could be another technology, resource, etc) BAU (References) District Heating Demands District Heating Alternatives District Heating Resources Results (PES, CO2, Costs) 84

  49. HRE2: Key Conclusion  A combination of:  50% District Heating ( Cities )  50% Heat Pumps ( Rural Areas )  35% Energy Savings ( Everywhere ) Can enable the EU to reach its CO2 target in 2050 for € 100 billion/year less than energy savings on their own. 85

  50. 4. Heat savings will remove the need for heat supply 23 June 2015

  51. How much Heat should we Save?  We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 87

  52. How much Heat should we Save?  We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 88

  53. How much Heat should we Save?  We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings 30-50% Cost of Cost of Heat Supplying Heat Savings ( € /kWh) Amount of Savings (TWh) 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 89

  54. 1. District Heating is not only for Cold Parts of Europe 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for an EU Problem 3. District Heating can reduce the cost of energy in the EU 4. Heat savings will not remove the need for heat supply 90

  55. 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas  Reduce our  Share a heating  Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building:  Space heating  Gas Grid  Oil  Hot water  Water (i.e.  Biomass district heating)  Heat Pumps  Electric Heating 30-50% ~50% Which Marginal District Heating one? 91

  56. 3. Individual Heating Options Sustainable Heating Unit Efficient Cost Cost Sensitivity Resources     Electric Heating     Heat Pumps     Oil Boilers     Biomass Boilers 92

  57. 3. Individual Heating Options Sustainable Heating Unit Efficient Cost Cost Sensitivity Resources     Electric Heating     Heat Pumps     Oil Boilers     Biomass Boilers 93

  58. 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings 2. Urban Areas 3. Rural Areas  Reduce our  Share a heating  Use a heating demand for heat: network: unit in each building:  Space heating  Gas Grid  Oil  Hot water  Water (i.e.  Biomass district heating)  Heat Pumps  Electric Heating 30-50% ~50% ~50% Marginal District Heating Heat Pumps 94

  59. Conclusions: Heat Sector  Savings:  There is an economic balance between reducing heat and supplying heat  30-50% heat savings is a good proxy for the economic limit of heat savings  Individual: Heat pumps are the most suitable individual heating solution in a 100% renewable context  Networks/Urban: District heating is the most suitable urban heating in a 100% renewable energy context 95

  60. COOLING 96

  61. EU Cooling Demand 97

  62. www.heatroadmap.eu Sample Cooling Atlas from STRATEGO: London 98

  63. District Cooling in Europe 99

  64. Key Finding for the Cooling Sector Today’s Future Demand Demand Very Small Could Grow a Lot (Up to ~40% of heat (~10% of heat demand with max demand with only of 140%) CY, MA, & GR >30%) So, Currently a Local So, Potential Issue National/EU Issue 23 June 2015 Danfoss, Nordborg 100

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