Socioeconomic Forecast 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast In 28 years - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presented to the HRTPO Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist, HRPDC July 20, 2017 HAMPTON ROADS Socioeconomic Forecast

2045 Socioeconomic Forecast In 28 years… • Employment trends • Household trends • Vehicles per household • Population density Unknowns • Migration • Labor force participation • Commuting patterns • Demographic • Planning and zoning • Employment • Cultural • Federal, State, and Local Policy • Gas prices • Technological • Natural Increase • Persons per household • Unknown • Land Availability • Transportation Modes and Costs • Retail Purchases • Sealevel rise 2 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

2045 Socioeconomic Forecast What the forecast is: What the forecast is not: • Input data for the HRTPO • An economic Transportation Socioeconomic Network Data 2045 Long-Range development tool Travel Transportation Plan (optimistic) Demand Model • An impartial and • A growth management consistent set of tool (pessimistic) socioeconomic • Destiny Traffic Forecasts projections that can assist organizations when Prioritization planning for the region’s future Long-Range Transportation Plan 3 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

What is included in the forecast? • Population • Employment by place of residence • Employment by place of work – Retail – Industrial – Office – Other • Households • Passenger Vehicle Registrations 4 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Socioeconomic Forecast Process 1. Literature Review of Forecasting Techniques 2. Review Best Practices 3. Begin Data Collection • Raw Data • Input from Localities Research Assumptions • • Model Inputs 4. Produce Draft Control Totals 5. Produce Draft Jurisdiction Totals 6. Review Draft with Planning Staff/TTAC 7. Present Control Totals for Approval 8. Provide Approved Control Totals to Localities for Assignment to TAZs 9. Final Approval of 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast 5 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Forecast Process • April 2016 – Presentation to Planning Directors – Met with Planning Directors/Staff from Every Jurisdiction • July 2016 – Presentation to TTAC on draft methodology • April 2017 – Presentation made to the LRTP Subcommittee • May 2017 – Presentation to TTAC; draft tables made available for public comment • June 2017 – Regional control totals presented to and approved by TTAC 6 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Forecast Methodology Top-Down, Bottom-Up Southside Hampton Roads Total Peninsula Employment Population Locality Growth Rates 7 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Hampton Roads Population Growth Through 2045 2,500,000 FORECAST 2,024,085 BY 2045 2,000,000 Southside Peninsula 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 8 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Population Growth Rates 1.2% Past 50 yrs Past 25 yrs Past 10 yrs Past 5 yrs Forecast for 2045 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST 0.2% 0.0% Peninsula Southside Hampton Roads 9 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Forecast of Jurisdiction Growth Rates from 2016 to 2045 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Forecast of Population Increase from 2016 to 2045 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 11 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Projected Employment in Hampton Roads 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 Note: Non-zero axis 850,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 11 12 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Projected Employment Growth, Southside and Peninsula 4% 3% 2% Peninsula Southside 1% 0% 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 -1% -2% -3% -4% 13 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Feedback – Why are the employment numbers so low? • Demographics • Employment Trends • Labor Force Trends 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast 14

Feedback - Population Growth Rates • Demographics – Aging of the population – Fewer replacement workers in the next generation 2015 2045 Female Male 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 100,000 0 100,000 100,000 0 100,000 Sources: Regional Economic Models, Inc, the Weldon Cooper Center and HRPDC 15 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Feedback – Why are the employment numbers so low? • Employment Trends – Established industries in Hampton Roads are not poised for long-term robust growth Projected Employment in Hampton Roads 1200 1000 800 Farm Employment 600 Public Sector 400 Private Sector 200 0 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 16 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Feedback – Why are the employment numbers so low? • Labor Force Trends – The labor force participation rate is declining and is projected to continue to decline until the late 2030s 69% Hampton Roads Labor Force Participation Rates 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 Sources: Regional Economic Models, Inc & HRPDC 17 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Employment Growth Forecast by Category 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Retail Office Industrial Other Total 18 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Employment Categories Industry Sector • Retail Retail Office Industrial Other 2-Digit NAICS* 100% Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 11 100% Mining 21 • Office 10% 90% Construction 23 10% 80% 10% Manufacturing 31,32,33 • Industrial 5% 15% 50% 30% Transportation & Warehousing 48 10% 10% 70% 10% Communications, Utilities 22 • Other 40% 10% 20% 30% Wholesale Trade 42 90% 10% Retail Trade 44,45 60% 10% 30% Information 51 100% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 52,53,55 30% 30% 10% 30% Administration & Support 56 40% 30% 10% 20% Personal Services 72,81 30% 10% 60% Entertainment, Recreation 71 30% 30% 10% 30% Health Services 62 20% 80% Educational Services 61 90% 10% Other Professional and Related Services 54 10% 40% 20% 30% Public Administration 92 * North American Industrial Classification System 19 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast

Draft 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast Population Forecast 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2045 Southside 775,253 849,550 1,018,986 1,085,471 1,152,606 1,196,615 1,416,015 Chesapeake 89,580 114,486 151,982 199,184 222,209 238,283 317,206 Franklin 6,880 7,308 7,864 8,346 8,582 8,535 8,751 Isle of Wight Co. 18,285 21,603 25,053 29,728 35,270 36,438 52,417 Norfolk 307,951 266,979 261,250 234,403 242,803 247,189 263,837 Portsmouth 110,963 104,577 103,910 100,565 95,535 96,874 97,752 Southampton Co. 18,582 18,731 17,550 17,482 18,570 18,551 20,218 Suffolk 45,024 47,621 52,143 63,677 84,585 90,426 129,682 Surry Co. 5,882 6,046 6,145 6,829 7,058 6,819 7,374 Virginia Beach 172,106 262,199 393,089 425,257 437,994 453,500 518,777 Peninsula 333,140 364,449 435,197 481,330 513,704 529,162 608,070 Gloucester Co. 14,059 20,107 30,131 34,780 36,858 37,072 41,252 Hampton 120,779 122,617 133,811 138,437 137,436 138,626 139,207 James City Co. 17,853 22,339 34,859 48,102 67,009 73,325 120,741 Newport News 138,177 144,903 171,439 180,150 180,719 183,454 189,962 Poquoson 5,441 8,726 11,005 11,566 12,150 12,359 12,637 Williamsburg 9,069 10,294 11,530 11,998 14,068 14,860 18,341 York Co. 27,762 35,463 42,422 56,297 65,187 69,466 85,930 Hampton Roads 1,108,393 1,213,999 1,454,183 1,566,801 1,666,310 1,725,777 2,024,085 Source of historical data: U.S. Census Bureau, Weldon Cooper Center, HRPDC 20 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast