So urc e : WDI , 2013 1995: 70%, 1999/ 2000: 59%, 2005/ 6: 57%, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

So urc e : WDI , 2013

 1995: 70%, 1999/ 2000: 59%, 2005/ 6: 57%, 2010/ 11: 45%  I ne q ua lity: pe a ke d a t 0.52 in 2005/ 6, the n do wn to 0.49  “ha t tric k” o f ra pid g ro wth, sha rp po ve rty re duc tio n a nd re duc e d ine q ua lity

 Wo rld Ba nk (2013): fe rtilize r e tc ., no n- fa rm e mplo yme nt, so c ia l pro te c tio n o f po o re st, fe rtility de c line  Bo o th a nd Go lo o b a -Mute b i (2012): “a se t o f a rra ng e me nts fo r ma na g ing e c o no mic re nts in a c e ntra lize d wa y a nd de plo ying the m with a vie w to the lo ng te rm”  Se rne e ls & Ve rpo o rte n (2013), Andre a & Ve rpo o rte n (2013): po st-wa r c a tc h-up

 Gua riso e t a l. (2012); Aya le w e t a l. (2011)  Ba sing a e t a l. (2010)  Nkurunziza e t a l. (2012)  We sto ff (2013); K a b a no e t a l. (2013) ; Muho za e t a l. (2013) 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 genocide & civil war new inheritance law new constitution introduction PBF a , Imihigo b 1994 with equal rights with gender quota (counter)insurgency for girls increase & free and family mandatory refugee crisis health budget mandatory planning health insurance 1994-1998 2002-2010 primary campaign education

 Do e s the re c e nt po ve rty a nd ine q ua lity re duc tio n re pre se nt a true re ve rsa l o f a tre nd?  Ho w c a n the da ta b e re c o nc ile d with c o ntra sting finding s fro m q ua lita tive fie ldwo rk a t the lo c a l le ve l?  Ca n e c o no mic g ro wth c o ntinue to o utpa c e po pula tio n g ro wth?  Ca n de ve lo pme nt in Rwa nda b e susta ine d if the c o untry c o ntinue s to sc o re ve ry lo w o n vo ic e a nd a c c o unta b ility?

 Do e s the re c e nt po ve rty a nd ine q ua lity re duc tio n re pre se nt a true re ve rsa l o f a tre nd? › to ta l a nnua l ra infa ll in 2010 wa s 50% hig he r tha n in 2005; › po st-wa r b a se wa s ve ry lo w › c o sme tic upg ra ding o f rura l life

Housing / Durables 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Has electricity (%) 2.3 6.2 4.8 6.0 9.7 Radio (%) 32.3 35.2 45.8 58.2 62.6 Health 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Delivery at health care facility (%) c 26.3 25.7 29.7 53.7 78.3 Maternal mortality rate d n.a. 1071 750 n.a. 476 Infant mortality 85 109 83 64 50 Under-5 mortality 151 196 152 103 76 All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 86.3 76.0 75.2 80.4 90.1 Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 6.6 18.2 59.2 82.7 Education 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Mean years of education, men 15-65 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.6 Mean years of education, women 15-65 3.0 3.3 3.4 4.0 NAR Primary school, total 61.5 72.0 80.6 87.5 NAR Secondary school, total 5.7 4.9 4.0 14.4

Housing / Durables 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Has electricity (%) 2.3 6.2 4.8 6.0 9.7 Radio (%) 32.3 35.2 45.8 58.2 62.6 Health 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Delivery at health care facility (%) c 26.3 25.7 29.7 53.7 78.3 Maternal mortality rate d n.a. 1071 750 n.a. 476 Infant mortality 85 109 83 64 50 Under-5 mortality 151 196 152 103 76 All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 86.3 76.0 75.2 80.4 90.1 Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 6.6 18.2 59.2 82.7 Education 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Mean years of education, men 15-65 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.6 Mean years of education, women 15-65 3.0 3.3 3.4 4.0 NAR Primary school, total 61.5 72.0 80.6 87.5 NAR Secondary school, total 5.7 4.9 4.0 14.4

Housing / Durables 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Has electricity (%) 2.3 6.2 4.8 6.0 9.7 Radio (%) 32.3 35.2 45.8 58.2 62.6 Health 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Delivery at health care facility (%) c 26.3 25.7 29.7 53.7 78.3 Maternal mortality rate d n.a. 1071 750 n.a. 476 Infant mortality 85 109 83 64 50 Under-5 mortality 151 196 152 103 76 All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 86.3 76.0 75.2 80.4 90.1 Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 6.6 18.2 59.2 82.7 Education 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Mean years of education, men 15-65 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.6 Mean years of education, women 15-65 3.0 3.3 3.4 4.0 NAR Primary school, total 61.5 72.0 80.6 87.5 NAR Secondary school, total 5.7 4.9 4.0 14.4

Housing / Durables 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Has electricity (%) 2.3 6.2 4.8 6.0 9.7 Radio (%) 32.3 35.2 45.8 58.2 62.6 Health 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Delivery at health care facility (%) c 26.3 25.7 29.7 53.7 78.3 Maternal mortality rate d n.a. 1071 750 n.a. 476 Infant mortality 85 109 83 64 50 Under-5 mortality 151 196 152 103 76 All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 86.3 76.0 75.2 80.4 90.1 Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 6.6 18.2 59.2 82.7 Education 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Mean years of education, men 15-65 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.6 Mean years of education, women 15-65 3.0 3.3 3.4 4.0 NAR Primary school, total 61.5 72.0 80.6 87.5 NAR Secondary school, total 5.7 4.9 4.0 14.4

DHS survey round 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Use of contraception a Any method (%) 1.45 3.26 2.88 1.79 1.32 Any modern method (%) 1.53 6.19 3.72 1.78 1.29 Ratio of indicator Delivery at health care facility (%) b 2.11 3.97 3.36 1.62 1.28 between Assistance of trained personnel (%) 1.95 3.08 2.44 1.65 1.40 top and All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 1.05 1.08 1.00 1.02 1.10 bottom Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 26.01 7.35 1.71 1.20 wealth quintile Net attendance ratio c Primary school, total 1.39 1.18 1.10 n.a. 1.19 Secondary school, total 4.86 12.88 24.24 n.a. 4.74 Notes: Own calculation on the basis of DHS data. a Among married women. b Of life births in the last three years preceding the survey. c The NAR for primary school is the percentage of the primary-school-age (7-12 years) population that is attending primary school. The NAR for secondary school is the percentage of the secondary-school age (13-18 years) population that is attending secondary school.

DHS survey round 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Use of contraception a Any method (%) 1.45 3.26 2.88 1.79 1.32 Any modern method (%) 1.53 6.19 3.72 1.78 1.29 Ratio of Delivery at health care facility (%) b indicator 2.11 3.97 3.36 1.62 1.28 between Assistance of trained personnel (%) 1.95 3.08 2.44 1.65 1.40 top and bottom All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 1.05 1.08 1.00 1.02 1.10 wealth Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 26.01 7.35 1.71 1.20 quintile Net attendance ratio c Primary school, total 1.39 1.18 1.10 n.a. 1.19 Secondary school, total 4.86 12.88 24.24 n.a. 4.74

DHS survey round 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Use of contraception a Any method (%) 1.45 3.26 2.88 1.79 1.32 Any modern method (%) 1.53 6.19 3.72 1.78 1.29 Ratio of Delivery at health care facility (%) b indicator 2.11 3.97 3.36 1.62 1.28 between Assistance of trained personnel (%) 1.95 3.08 2.44 1.65 1.40 top and bottom All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 1.05 1.08 1.00 1.02 1.10 wealth Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 26.01 7.35 1.71 1.20 quintile Net attendance ratio c Primary school, total 1.39 1.18 1.10 n.a. 1.19 Secondary school, total 4.86 12.88 24.24 n.a. 4.74

DHS survey round 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Use of contraception a Any method (%) 1.45 3.26 2.88 1.79 1.32 Any modern method (%) 1.53 6.19 3.72 1.78 1.29 Ratio of Delivery at health care facility (%) b indicator 2.11 3.97 3.36 1.62 1.28 between Assistance of trained personnel (%) 1.95 3.08 2.44 1.65 1.40 top and bottom All vaccinations (% children 12-23 months) 1.05 1.08 1.00 1.02 1.10 wealth Households owns mosquito net (any type, %) n.a. 26.01 7.35 1.71 1.20 quintile Net attendance ratio c Primary school, total 1.39 1.18 1.10 n.a. 1.19 Secondary school, total 4.86 12.88 24.24 n.a. 4.74

In sum: DHS data indic ate s impr ove me nts in he alth and e duc ation, And, in ge ne r al, a patte r n of c onve r ge nc e ac r oss we alth quintile s … in line with the pove r ty and ine quality de c line r e c or de d in E ICV3

“So c ia l e ng e ne e ring ”, “c o sme tic c ha ng e s” “while the se me a sure s a re de sig ne d to ma ke a sig nific a nt po rtio n o f rura l dwe lle rs “lo o k” le ss po o r, the y a re like ly to “b e a nd fe e l” a s po o r, o r e ve n po o re r, tha n b e fo re ” (I ng e la e re , 2011) Health 1992 2000 2005 2007-8 2010 Delivery at health care facility (%) c 26.3 25.7 29.7 53.7 78.3 Maternal mortality rate d n.a. 1071 750 n.a. 476

Public ve r sus hidde n tr ansc r ipt?

In sum: DHS data indic ate s impr ove me nts in he alth and e duc ation, And, in ge ne r al, a patte r n of c onve r ge nc e ac r oss we alth quintile s … in line with the pove r ty and ine quality de c line r e c or de d in E ICV3 While some c hange s may be “c osme tic ”, the r e is also e vide nc e for r e al impr ove me nts in quality- of- life me asur e s.