Church Membership by Group for Texas and Louisiana in 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 2000 to 2010 percent of percent of percent number population number population change Conservative Evangelical 6,045,435 23.9% 7,520,654 25.3% 24.4% Black Protestants N/A 563,174 1.9% Mainline Protestants 1,778,934 7.0% 1,649,688 5.6% -7.3% ELCA 160,666 0.6% 116,272 0.4% -27.6% Orthodox N/A 34,931 0.1% Roman Catholic 5,751,572 22.7% 5,874,400 19.8% 2.1% Other 463,970 991,592 Unclaimed 11,120,152 43.9% 12,937,472 43.6% 16.3% Total population 25,320,729 100.0% 29,688,183 100.0% Source: Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies (ASARB). Prepared by Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
National Membership Trends in Selected Denominations from 2000 to 2011 Assemblies of God Church of the Nazarene Evangelical Lutheran Church in America Southern Baptist Convention 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches , National Council of Churches of Christ. Prepared by Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
Membership in Selected Denominations in Texas and Louisiana in 2000 and 2010 (as a percent of the total population) 2000 2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 13,000,000 60% unaffiliated in 2010 50% 43.9% 43.6% 40% 30% 22.7% 19.8% 20% 16.9% 14.9% 10% 0.6% 0.4% 0% Southern Baptist Roman Catholic ELCA unclaimed Convention Source: Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies (ASARB). Prepared by Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
Estimated Percent of U.S. Population Attending Worship Services by Group (over the age of five) Non-Christian 1% Other Christian 1% Orthodox / Other Not Attending Catholic 80% 0% Roman Catholic 6% Conservative / Evangelical 8% ELCA 1% Mainline Protestant w/o ELCA 3% Source: C. Kirk Hadaway and Penny Long Marler, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion , September, 2005. Prepared by Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2009.
Rates of Membership Change For ELCA Lutherans by Decade ELCA U.S. Population 80.0% 74% 70% 70.0% 68% 60.0% 50.0% 43% 40.0% 37% 33% 33% 30.0% 28% 18% 20.0% 16% 10.0% 7% 5% 0.0% -3% -5% -10.0% -2% -8% -20.0% 1850- 1860- 1870- 1880- 1890- 1900- 1910- 1920- 1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: Annual Congregational Reports, ELCA and Predecessor Bodies. Prepared by Research and Evaluation, 2009.
American Religion • individualistic • heartfelt • unmediated (or so it would have us believe) (soul competency, sole competency) • literalist • instrumentalist • pragmatic (accounting function) Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
The Forms of American Religion • conservative evangelical (in the old line or new line versions, Roman Catholicism) • Pentecostal (?) • liberalism (mainline, Unitarian Universalist, etc.) • Mormonism Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
The Accounting Function • What often separates religious people from the irreligious is the accounting function. • Taken to its furthest conclusion in Mormonism. Mormonism is a system of consequences that has been instituted by God so that good behavior in this life will lead to god-like status in the next. • It is an individual’s responsibility, given by God, to continually improve by building upon a sequence of right choices. • According to the Doctrines and Covenants of the LDS church: Salvation cannot be bequeathed through God’s grace, if that implies a conception of salvation as something that may be externally bestowed as a gift or reward. Sanctification is strictly connected to self-conformity with laws that are intrinsically transformative. • That which is governed by laws is also…perfected and sanctified by the same. That which breaketh a law, and abideth not by law, …cannot be sanctified by law, neither by mercy, justice, nor judgment . Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
Lutherans and American Religion • 2008 sample of 1,500 from the Seeds for the Parish mailing list (54% responded) • 30% strongly agreed and 32% agreed with the statement “salvation is given freely by God but only to those who have made a decision to accept Jesus as their personal savior”. • 29% strongly agreed and 44% agreed with the statement “it is possible by honoring God and with God’s help to overcome sin and live a holy life”. • 55% agreed or strongly agreed that when Christ returns “he will engage and defeat the anti-Christ”. • 28% agreed or strongly agreed that “faithful Christians will be Raptured up into the heavens prior to the return of Jesus Christ and 40% indicated they were not sure”. Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
Luther and American Religion (Part I) In his 1539 sermon On Soberness and Moderation, Luther said this: Therefore, if you wish to be a Christian, take care that you control yourself. If you do not wish to be saved, go ahead and steal, rob, profiteer as long as you can.... But if you do want to be saved, then listen to this: just as adultery and idolatry close up heaven , so does gluttony; for Christ says very clearly: Take heed ‘lest your hearts be weighed down with dissipation and drunkenness and cares of this life, and that day come upon you suddenly’ [Luke 21:34], ‘as the lightning comes from the east and shines as far as the west’ [Matt. 24:27]. Therefore be watchful and sober. That is what is preached to us, who want to be Christians (emphasis mine) . Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
Luther and American Religion (Part II) • But 7 pages into the 9 page sermon, Luther comes to his senses: “For this [love] is the way sins are covered, even a multitude, a heap, a sea, a forest of sins. How does [love] do this? It does not [cover] my sin in the way the pope interprets this, i.e., when I love God and my neighbor then I blot out my sins. No. It is another’s love, namely, Christ’s love, which has covered my sins, as Peter says in Chapter 2: ‘He bore them in his body on the cross and erased them completely’ [I Pet. 2:24]. This is said with regard to your sins, the sins you commit against me and I against you” . Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
God and the Intervention God’s love makes the certain uncertain and uncertainty is the mortal enemy of American religion. Matthew 12 At that time Jesus went through the cornfields on the Sabbath; his disciples were hungry, and they began to pluck heads of grain and to eat. When [the proponents of the certain] saw it, they said to him, ‘Look, your disciples are doing what is not lawful to do on the Sabbath.’ He said to them, ‘Have you not read what David did when he and his companions were hungry? He entered the house of God and ate the bread of the Presence, which it was not lawful for him or his companions to eat, but only for the priests. Or have you not read in the law that on the Sabbath the priests in the temple break the Sabbath and yet are guiltless? I tell you, something greater than the temple is here. But if you had known what this means, “I desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the guiltless. For the Son of Man is lord of the Sabbath.’ Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
God and the Intervention Matthew keeps this up. [Jesus] left that place and entered their synagogue; a man was there with a withered hand, and they asked him, ‘Is it lawful to cure on the Sabbath?’ so that they might accuse him. He said to them, ‘Suppose one of you has only one sheep and it falls into a pit on the Sabbath; will you not lay hold of it and lift it out? How much more valuable is a human being than a sheep? So is it lawful to do good on the Sabbath?’ Then he said to the man, ‘Stretch out your hand.’ He stretched it out, and it was restored, as sound as the other. But the [proponents of the certain] went out and conspired against him, how to destroy him. Kenneth W. Inskeep, Research and Evaluation, ELCA, 2012.
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