SLIDES&FOR& PRESENTATION Dr.$Francesco$ Grillo THE$CHINA$ CENTRE,' OXFORD,' 25th%FEB%2019
MA MAIN%ME MESS SSAGES 1) 1)#W #WHA HAT#IS #IS#T #THE HE#B #BOOK#AB #ABOUT? 2) 2)#RE #REAS ASONS NS#F #FOR#C R#COMPARING ARING#C #CHINA#AND#IT HINA#AND#ITAL ALY 3) 3)#T #THE HE#INNO #INNOVATIO ION#P N#PARADO ARADOX# X# 4) 4)#T #THE HE#DE #DEMOCRA RACY#P Y#PUZZLE ZZLE 5) 5)#RE #REAS ASONS NS#W #WHY#IS HY#IS#C #CHINA#AD HINA#ADAP APTING ING#B #BETTER#T R#THAN#IT HAN#ITAL ALY/#E #EUROPE#T #TO#T #THE HE#5T #5TH#T H#TECHNO HNOLOGIC ICAL# AL# RE REVOLUTIO ION*( N*(AND*W AND*WHY*T HY*THE HE*T *TRE REND*M ND*MAY*RE Y*REVERSE*IT *ITSELF LF) 6) 6)#HO #HOW#T #TO#F #FIX#DE IX#DEMOCRA RACY#T Y#TO#S #SOLVE#T #THE HE#P #PARADO ARADOX#O X#OF#INNO #INNOVATIO ION 2
WH WHAT%IS%THE%BOOK%ABOUT?% 1) 1)#IT #IT#IS #IS#NO #NOT#A#B #A#BOOK#O #ON#C N#CHINA HINA.#NO #NOR#O R#ON#IT N#ITAL ALY.#IT #IT#IS #IS#A#( #A#(FIR IRST?) ?)#A #ATTEMPT#T #TO#U #UNDE NDERSTAND#HO AND#HOW#T #THE HE# RE RELA LATIO IONS NSHIP HIP,( ,(S),B ,BETWEEN,( N,(AND,T AND,THE HE,DE ,DEFINIT INITIO IONS NS,O ,OF),“ ,“DE DEMOCRA RACY”,,“ ,“INNO INNOVATIO ION” N”,AND,“ ,AND,“GROWTH” H”, I S" S" CH CHANGING'DUE'TO' O'THE'TECH CHNOL OLOG OGICA CAL'DISCON ONTINUITIES'WHICH CH'DEFI FINES'THE' XXIs Ist CE CENTURY( 2) 2)#T #THIS HIS#IS #IS#DO #DONE NE#T #THR HROUGH#T H#THE HE#C #COMPARIS ARISON#B N#BETWEEN#T N#THE HE#T #TWO#M #MOST#DIV #DIVERGING ING#C #CAS ASES#Y #YOU#C #CAN# AN# TH THINK&OF&AMONGST& GST&TH THE& E&BIG& G&(EN ENOUGH GH)&COUNTR TRIES&OF&TH THE& E&WORLD 3) 3)#IN#F #IN#FACT,#IN#T #IN#THE HE#LAS #LAST#T #THIR HIRTY#YE Y#YEAR ARS#( #(SINC INCE# 1989 1989 ),#CHIN HINA HAS HAS$BEEN$ N$THE HE$FAS ASTEST$GROWING ING$COUNT NTRY$ Y$OF$ TH THE$ E$(NOT$ T$LIBER ERAL ! DE DEMOCRA RACY,*AS *ASIAN) IAN)*P *PAR ART*O *OF*T *THE HE*W *WORLD*W RLD*WHIC HICH*HAS H*HAS*G *GROWN*M N*MORE RE.*IT *ITAL ALY*IS Y*IS*T *THE HE* SLOWEST'GROWING'COUNTRY'OF'THE'(WESTERN' LIB SL LIBERAL AL ! DE DEMOCRA RACY) Y)* PAR ART%OF%THE HE%WORLD LD%WHIC WHICH% H%HAS HAS% GROWN& WN&LE LESS.& 4 )"OUR"IN INIT ITIA IAL" L"WORKIN ING"HYP HYPOTHE HESIS IS"IS IS"THA HAT"THE HERE"ARE"TWO"ARGUMENTS"WHIC WHICH" H"CAN"EXPLA LAIN IN"THE HESE" TR TREN ENDS:(TH THE( E(FIRST( ST(IS(TH THE( E( INNO INNOVATIO ION' N' PAR ARAD ADOX;( ;( TH THE$ E$ SE SECOND'IS' S'THE'LIBERAL' DE DEMOCRA RACY)P Y)PUZZLE ZZLE ."O ."OUR" R" TH THESIS&IS&TH THAT& T&IN&ORDER ER&TO&SOLVE& E&TH THE& E&FORMER ER,&YOU&NEED EED&TO&FIX&TH THE& E&LATTER TER.& 5) 5)#T #THE HE#B #BOOK#IS #IS#C #CONC NCLUDE DED#B D#BY#T Y#TEN#IDE N#IDEAS AS#W #WHIC HICH#C H#CAN#DO AN#DO#T #THA HAT:#IN#A#NU :#IN#A#NUTSHE HELL LL,#T #THE HE#IDE #IDEA#IS A#IS#T #THA HAT#IN# #IN# ORDER%TO% OR O%SAVE VE%DEMOCR OCRACY CY%AND%THE%WEST,%YOU OU%NEED%TO% O%CH CHANGE%THE%INSTITUTION ONS%OF% OF%DEMOCR OCRACY CY% AND$ AND$TRANS RANSFORM RM$IT IT$INT INTO$ A" A" CO COLLECTIVE(PROBLEM(SOLVING(EXERCISE( (I. I.E.%A%“ MET METHOD”/)I )INFORMA RMATION) SY SYSTEM STEM&TO& GATHE HER'IND INDIV IVID IDUAL' AL'PREFERENC NCES'INT INTO'COLLE LLECTIV IVE' INT INTELLIG LLIGENC NCE))WHIC HICH) H) IS IS#SOMETHING HING# TH THAT,%PARADOXICALLY,% MA MAY$G $GIVE$T E$TO$C $CHINA$T $THE$C E$CAPABILITY$T $TO$B $BET ETTER ER$A $ADAPT$T $TO$T $THE$MU E$MUTATION$T $THAT$W $WE$ E$ 3 CA CALL$FI FIFT FTH$INDUSTRIAL$REVOL OLUTION ON
TH THE$S $STAR ARTI TING$P $POINT$O T$OF$TH $THE$RE $RESEAR ARCH CH$(AN $(AND$TH $THE$$ $$ CONCL CLUSION(O (OF(P (PREVIOUS( Ph Ph.D ." ."WORK"AT"THE"LSE LSE"AND"BOOK) WHICH%IS%THE%RIGHT%«QUANTITY»%OF%PARTICIPATION%FOR%A%(INNOVATION)%POLICY% WH TO TO#WORK?# INNOVATION POLICY PERFORMANCE COOPERATIVE Pais Vasco& TOP$DOWN Castilla Y"Leon" South& Yorkshire Scotland Wales Murcia DISPERSED OPENNESS OF POLICY MAKING 4
THE$ TH E$SCALE$ E$UP$ UP$OF$TH THE$ E$ARGUM GUMEN ENT$ T$AT$ T$A$GL GLOBAL$ LEVEL$ LE L$AND$ AND$THE HE$INIT INITIAL$ IAL$THE HESIS SIS WH WHICH%IS%THE%RIGHT%«QUANTITY»%(OR%QUALITY)%OF%DEMO MOCRACY%FOR% (I (INNO NNOVATION( N(DR DRIVEN)( N)(GROWTH(TO(BE(SUSTAINA NABLE?( PARTICIPATORY,* ELECTRONIC,* SUSTAINABLE DIRECT' GROWTH DEMOCRACY ESTONIA,) CENTRALLY) PLANNED SWITZERLAND,- AUSTRALIA,) CANADA CHINA ITALY FAILING'LIBERAL' DEMOCRACY DEMOCRACY 5
TWO$EXTREME$(AND$BIG)$CASES CHINA I T A L Y • 188th%in%the%world%ranking%for%GDP% growth since • 2nd$in$the$world$ranking$for$GDP$ growth 1989$ since 1989 • In#1994#the# fourth largest economy • In#1989#the# poorest of#the#world • Poverty tripled since 2005$(from$1.8$to$5.1$mio$ • 70%$of$world$ poverty reduction ( between of# individuals in# absolute poverty ) 1990$and$2015$ ! MDG) • O nly OECD%country%net% exporter of# graduates • Second'in'the'PISA'score'for' mathematics • Position' number 24#in#the#EU#for#e ! commerce • 50%$of$the$266$world$ unicorns are$ chinese • Highest HALE%in%the%EU% but dropped since 2014 • Average HALE% higher than USA • Founder of#the#EU,# it is the$EU$country$ where • One of#the# five left CP#led# countries of#the# people one of#the# highest ratio& between world&and& only one amongst them with%no% elections and$ people general' election 6
IS IS#THER HERE# E#AN#IN INCOMPARABIL ILIT ITIT ITY#IS ISSUE?# E?#THE# HE#LIB IBER ERAL#DEM EMOCRACY#PUZZL ZZLE# E#AND#THE# HE# AR ARGUM UMENT)OF)THE)“CATCH)UP UP”)AN AND)OF)“DEMOCRA RACY) Y)AS AS)LUX UXUR URY” GD GDP$ P$ gr growth'rates es'(1996 1996 – 2016;& 2016;& difference ces) ag again ainst'the'world ld' av average;'horizontal'axis)'and' Th The$Economis ist’s$ democrac de racy)i )inde ndex (2015;'from'0'to'10;'ver ertical'axis) s)' + 5,0 HIGH GDP$GROWTH$ LOW$GDP$GROWTH$ NORWAY HIGH$DEMOCRACY HIGH$DEMOCRACY THE$ARGUMENT$ CANADA AUSTRALIA (AND%ITS%OBJECTIONS)% GERMANY UK CORRELATION:+ ! 0,45 FRANCE JAPAN ESTONIA CORRELATION*(OECD*):* ! 0,36 US ITALY CORRELATION*(NOT*OECD):* ! 0,61 BRAZIL NOT$TRUE$DEMOCRACY$IS$LUXURY UP#TO#1989#NO#«CATCH#UP»#AND# CORRELATIONS+WERE+POSITIVE ! 10,0$% + 10,0% CUBA RUSSIA UAE CHINA QATAR HIGH GDP$GROWTH$ LOW$GDP$GROWTH$ LOW DEMOCRACY HIGH DEMOCRACY ! 5,0 Source:(Authors,(using(data(from(the(World(Bank(and( EIU 7
THE$INFORMATION$PARADOX$(1) – AGAINST'AN'INFORMATION'DELUGE..'' INFORMATION) STORED'IN'ALL'DIGITAL'DEVICES' (EXABYTES*) 40026 $ $$ of $ $ 8591 1227 130 YEAR 2005 2010 2015 2020 8 Source:(IDC,(UCB
TH THE$INFORMATI TION$PARADOX$(2) .."PRODUC .." UCTIVITY" Y"IS" S"STAGNATING"AN AND"THIS" S"SE SEEMS" S"TO"CONTRAD ADICT"THE"DOMINAN ANT" ENDOGEN EN ENOUS(GROWTH( H(THE HEORY((LUCAS,(ROMER ER) PRODUCTI PR TIVITY TY+GR GROWTH TH+RATE TES,+G7 G7,+AVER ERAGE+ GE+OF+YEARLY+INCREASE+ E+ 3,00% 2,50% 2,41% 2,00% 1,84% 1,71% 1,50% 1,37% 1,00% 0,50% 0,57% 0,00% 1971*1979 1980*1989 1990*1999 2000*2007 2007*2016 9 Source:(Authors(on(OECD(data
TH THE$INFORMATI TION$PARADOX$(3) HO HOWEV EVER ER'THIS HIS'DOES'NOT'SEEM EEM'TO'HA HAPPEN EN'IN IN'CHIN HINA PR PRODUCTI TIVITY TY+GR GROWTH TH+RATE TES,+AVER ERAGE+ GE+OF+YEARLY+INCREASE+ E+ 16,00% 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 !2,00% !4,00% !6,00% G7 China Source:(Authors(on(OECD(data 10
TH THE$ENTR TREPRENEURIAL$STATE TE$ PER PERCEN ENTAGE) GE)DISTR STRIBUTI TION)OF)WORLDWIDE) E)KILOMETR ETRES)OF)OPER PERATI TING) G)SUBWAYS)IN)CITI TIES)(LEF EFT) T)) AND$HIG AND$ HIGH ! SP SPEED%TRAINS% S%(RIGHT)%IN%2018%(100%%16,339%KM%SU SUBWAY;%41,820%KM%HIGH ! SP SPEED% TR TRAIN) SIMILAR'PATTERNS'FOR RENEWABLE(ENERGY:(21% OTHERS USA UK ELECTRIC'CARS:'32,2% 2,6% 0,3% 1,8% SPAIN OTHER; 5G#TOWERS#(MORE#CHINA#IN# 7,0% COUNTRIES ITALY LAST% 25% 2,3% 3"MONTHS"THAN"USA"IN"THE" GERMANY CHINA 4,0% LAST% 34% 3"YEARS) FRANCE 6,6% TURKEY 1,7% SOUTH;KOREA SOUTH;KOREA 6% 2,1% SPAIN JAPAN CHINA 3% 7,3% 64,2% RUSSIA 4% USA INDIA 10% ITALY 3% 2% GERMANY UK JAPAN 3% 4% 6% Source:(Authors,(using(data( from% UIC$(Union$International$des$Chemins$ Fer )"and"International"Association"of"Public"Transport. 11
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