Slated for the longest expansion on record Duration of United States economic expansions Lengh of expansion and average annual job growth October 1945 37 months (5.1%) October 1949 45 months (4.3%) 39 months (2.5%) May 1954 24 months (3.6%) April 1958 Expansion Start February 1961 106 months (3.2%) November 1970 36 months (3.4%) March 1975 58 months (3.5%) 92 months (2.8%) December 1982 120 months (2.0%) March 1991 November 2001 73 months (0.9%) July 2009 113 months (1.5%) Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Economic Research and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data 10 Recession Watch Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Holding on to #1 for job growth in current expansion Industry-adjusted state-to-U.S. employment growth ratios Growth since end of recession, 2009-2017 WA 1.26 ME MT ND 0.41 0.70 1.21 MN VT 0.54 OR ID 0.72 NH 0.65 1.03 1.07 SD WI NY MI MA 1.16 0.70 0.55 1.01 WY 0.69 RI 0.71 0.51 IA PA CT 0.50 NE 0.45 0.65 NV OH NJ 0.75 0.65 IN UT IL 1.14 0.60 MD 0.83 WV 0.68 1.57 CO 0.64 CA 0.00 DE 0.93 VA 1.32 KS 1.46 MO KY 0.84 0.53 0.53 0.69 NC TN 1.15 OK 1.02 AZ AR NM 0.53 SC 1.15 0.65 0.23 1.27 AL MS GA < 0.50 0.66 0.67 1.23 0.50 - 0.79 TX LA AK 1.49 0.80 - 0.99 0.58 0.34 1.00 - 1.29 1.30 + FL 1.44 HI 0.91 Note: Ratio of actual employment growth to the employment growth the state would have experienced if its industries grew at the same rate as those of the rest of the nation. Numbers above 1 indicate outperforming the nation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 16 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Strength in diversity Hachman Index of Economic Diversity, 2017 WA 87.7 ME MT ND 91.1 80.1 51.1 VT 90.9 MN OR ID 94.6 NH 95.0 89.1 79.2 SD WI NY MA 90.0 MI 65.2 92.3 79.9 WY 92.2 RI 87.3 25.1 IA PA CT 91.9 NE 74.8 95.5 NJ 93.4 NV OH 69.5 UT IL IN 64.7 93.9 MD 87.4 96.9 CO 95.6 76.0 CA WV DE 53.5 VA 93.6 KS 93.1 54.2 MO KY 89.1 90.3 96.8 90.4 NC TN 92.5 OK 91.9 AZ AR NM 57.7 SC 95.7 88.6 62.5 90.9 AL MS GA < 65.0 91.1 95.2 86.8 65.0 - 79.9 TX LA AK 76.3 80.0 - 89.9 85.6 31.9 90.0 - 94.9 95.0 + FL 92.0 HI 71.8 Note: Value of 100 would mean that state’s economic activity is distributed exactly like the nation’s; more diverse economies have a higher index score. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP data 18 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Construction employment back to pre-bubble levels Construction jobs as a percent of all Utah jobs 9.0% 20-year average = 6.5% 8.3% 8.0% 6.8% 7.0% 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e Note: e = estimate Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey data D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 21
Provo has the highest student to QAMO teacher ratio in the state A W A R D W I N N E R Why student-teacher Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, FY 2017 ratios matter Utah average = 21.8 Higher amounts of engagement and retention Districts with highest ratios More individualized attention Provo 25.2 Accommodation of Morgan 24.8 difgerent learning styles Alpine 24.6 Submitted by David Eccles Davis 24.0 School of Business QAMO Cache 23.6 (Quantitative Analysis of Markets & Organiztions) Uintah 23.3 students Jessie Rabe and Juab 23.2 Jonathan White. Nebo 23.1 Box Elder 23.0 Jordan 23.0 Districts with lowest ratios Kane 17.6 San Juan 17.2 Park City 16.6 Grand 15.9 Garfield 15.9 Rich 14.2 Wayne 13.9 Tintic 12.4 Piute 10.2 10.2 Daggett Note: District average = 19.8; Charter school average = 22.1 Jessie Rabe Jonathan White Source: Utah State Board of Education D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 27
Look at us grow! High-growth company density Number of private businesses with at least $2 million in annual revenue reaching three years of 20 percent annual revenue growth, normalized by total business population WA 87.9 ME MT ND 28.7 26.2 39.9 VT 12.6 MN OR ID 73.7 NH 67.2 70.0 38.3 SD WI NY MA 100.0 MI 42.0 39.9 67.1 WY 57.3 RI 19.2 12.9 IA CT 37.9 PA NE 32.7 64.2 NJ 73.4 NV OH 42.6 IN UT IL 85.1 45.3 MD 102.8 WV 174.8 CO 55.1 CA 76.6 DE 76.2 31.7 VA 96.9 KS 88.9 MO KY 208.3 61.9 47.4 30.8 NC TN 69.9 OK 71.2 AZ AR NM SC 30.7 101.6 17.9 67.7 16.2 AL GA MS 66.0 19.7 124.5 TX < 50.0 LA AK 82.8 40.9 50.0 - 74.9 7.3 75.0 - 99.9 100.0 + FL 77.0 HI 26.8 Source: Kaufgman Foundation 2017 Kaufgman Index of Growth Entrepreneurship State Trends 32 Economic Development Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Utah’s narrowing sales tax base Utah sales tax base as a percent of personal income 70% 67% 60% 50% 42% 40% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Note: 2018 and beyond are forecasted. Source: Utah Governor’s Offjce of Management and Budget and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 38 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Top 20 for energy industry jobs Energy industry employment as a percent of total employment, 2017 WA MT ND ME 5.22% 8.86% VT 5.56% OR MN NH 3.85% ID MA 4.31% WI SD NY WY MI RI 14.38% 4.23% CT PA IA NE NJ OH NV IN IL UT MD CO WV 4.22% DE 4.19% CA 4.79% KS 6.32% VA MO 4.43% 4.81% DC KY NC TN OK AZ NM SC 6.57% AR 3.88% 5.56% AL GA MS 4.19% TX AK LA 6.62% 6.74% 6.92% FL HI 14.5% 3.5% Source: U.S. Department of Energy 48 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Energy is one of our state’s many exports Utah energy production and consumption Gigawatt hours 50,000 Net generation Consumption 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 e 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 Note: e = estimate Source: Utah Geological Survey D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Energy and Environment 49
Utah 4 th healthiest in the nation Health ranking WA 9 ME MT ND 23 22 18 VT 3 MN OR ID 6 NH 8 20 14 SD WI NY MA 1 MI 21 24 10 WY 35 RI 11 26 IA PA CT 5 NE 15 28 NV OH NJ 12 13 IN UT IL 37 39 MD 16 WV 4 38 CA CO 27 DE 30 46 VA 7 KS 17 MO KY 19 25 40 42 NC TN 33 OK 45 AZ AR NM SC 43 31 48 36 44 AL GA MS 1-10 47 41 50 11-20 TX LA AK 34 21-30 49 29 31-40 41-50 FL 32 HI 2 Source: United Health Foundation 2017 America’s Health Rankings Annual Report 52 Health Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Another way to look at quality of life Life expectancy at birth by Utah small area, 2012–2016 Rich & Cache Counties (except Logan) - 80.7 Ogden - Downtown Box Elder County 74.8 (except Brigham City) - 80.5 Farmington/ Logan 81.8 Centerville Brigham City 83.1 Summit County 75.4 SLC - 81.5 Glendale Foothill/ 74.4 UofU Avenues 84.5 84.1 Tooele County Daggett, Duchesne & South 77.8 Uintah Counties Salt Lake 77.5 73.2 Provo- Juab, Millard & North/ Sanpete Counties Carbon & BYU 79.1 Emery 82.7 Counties Grand 74.7 County 79.2 Sevier, Piute & Wayne Counties Red Bottom 4 areas with the shortest life expectancy 77.8 Green Top 4 areas with the longest life expectancy Cedar Beaver, Garfield, City 73.2 to 76.0 (Shortest Life) Kane & Iron Counties San Juan 78.5 76.8 to 78.6 (except Cedar City) County 77.3 79.1 79.1 to 81.2 St George 81.4 Washington County 81.3 to 84.5 (Longest Life) N (except St George) - 81.0 County Boundary Note: Life expectancy can be used to gauge the overall health of a community. Source: Utah Department of Health, Center for Health Data and Informatics D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Health 53
Retail dives, apartments soar Wasatch Front commerical real estate under construction by property type Percent of total stock 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Apartment O ffice Industrial Retail Note: 2018 as of the third quarter. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Insitute analysis of CoStar Group Inc. data D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Real Estate and Construction 61
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