SHRP2 C20, C43, and Others SHRP 2 F SHRP 2 Freight eight Modeling and Data A Modeling and Data Activities tivities
SHRP 2 F SHRP 2 Freight Pr eight Product Gr oduct Group Need oup Need Goods movement is vital to prosperity. Transportation improvements are capital-intensive, long-term commitments. Transportation plans and programs must have a meaningful freight component to support sound decision-making. Passenger-oriented travel demand models and existing data are insufficient to reflect the complexity of freight. SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 2
Freight Pr eight Product Gr oduct Group Purpose oup Purpose To foster fresh ideas and new approaches to freight demand modeling and data collection that ultimately enhance decision-making. SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 3
SHRP 2 F SHRP 2 Freight Pr eight Project Ov oject Over ervie view C20: F C20: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Im eight Demand Modeling and Data Impr provement ement Strat Strategic Plan gic Plan (com (comple pleted) ed) C43: Second F C43: Second Freight Modeling and Data Inno eight Modeling and Data Innovation tion Sym Symposi osium m (e (event held F nt held Fall 20 ll 2013, , repor report in pr in progress) ogress) C4 C44: TRB W 4: TRB Workshop on Using Supply Chain Data f rkshop on Using Supply Chain Data for r Planning and Pr Planning and Programming ogramming (com (comple pleted) ed) Adapting F apting Freight Models and T eight Models and Traditional F aditional Freight Data eight Data Programs f Pr ograms for P r Performance Measurement W ormance Measurement Workshop shop (TRB (TRB Division A A, eve event h held S Spring 2 2013 13) [C15: Guide to Involving Freight Stakeholders in Capacity Project Planning, Programming, and Development (completed)] SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 4
Pr Project C20 Ov oject C20 Over ervie view 5
De Developing a Strat loping a Strategic R gic Road Map ad Map Foster interest among the freight community based on extensive outreach and engagement of public and private freight stakeholders. Document freight decision-making needs—particularly those of state DOTs and MPOs. Pilot a successful international Freight Modeling and Data Innovation Symposium—to spur breakthrough thinking and innovative ideas (www.freightplanning.com). Develop an initial set of Sample Research Initiatives validated by freight stakeholders. SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 6
C20 Strat C20 Strategic Objectiv gic Objectives Improve and expand Develop and refine 1. 3. the knowledge base forecasting/modeling for planners and practices based on decision-makers. sound economic and demographic Develop and refine 2. principles. forecasting/modeling practices that reflect Develop standard 4. the “real world” of freight data to smaller supply chain geographic scales. management. continued next slide SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 7
C20 Strat C20 Strategic Objectiv gic Objectives, s, cont’d. cont’d. Establish methods for Improve the availability 5. 6. maximizing the and visibility of data beneficial use of new among agencies and freight analytical tools between the public and by state departments of private sectors. transportation (DOTs) Develop new and 7. and metropolitan enhanced visualization planning organizations tools and techniques (MPOs) in their for freight planning and planning and forecasting. programming activities. SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 8
C20: Current Stat C20: Current State of the Practice e of the Practice 9
Current Stat Current State of the Practice e of the Practice Key factors: Globalization of trade, underlying economic forces, private sector inventory and logistics, and centralized warehousing Freight planning, forecasting, and modeling response: ◦ Economic Flow Models ◦ Land Use/Economic Input-Output Models ◦ Commodity-based Models ◦ Vehicle/Trip-based Models ◦ Estimation Routines ◦ Aggregate Measures ◦ Quick Response Procedures SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 10
Current Models are Lac Current Models are Lacking in ing in Terms of: rms of: Multimodal dimensions of freight transport Key variables that “drive” freight demand Transportation variation by commodity type Obtaining proprietary data from private sources Time sensitivity of mode choice Local deliveries (i.e., “touring”) in metropolitan areas Complex relationship of land use and freight generation SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 11
Current Data Shortcomings Current Data Shor tcomings Availability in general Frequency of updates Cost of collecting data to close gaps Accuracy and suitability for planning and modeling at varied geographic levels Potential errors aggregating or disaggregating data for geographic scaling Relating freight data to transportation networks in models SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 12
C20: Decision-Making Needs C20: Decision-Making Needs 13
Decision-Making Needs Decision-Making Needs A recognized and valid inventory of standardized data sources with common definitions. A range of analytical tools and applications to address diverse decision-making needs. A process to routinely generate new data sources and problem-solving methods. Behavior-based facets of freight decision-making should be incorporated into modeling. continued next slide SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 14
Decision-Making Needs, Decision-Making Needs, cont’d. cont’d. Industry-level freight data at a local, sub-regional level, and a better understanding of local deliveries in urban areas. Benefit-cost analysis tools that go beyond traditional financial measures by including direct and indirect benefits and costs (public and private). Development of a statistical sampling of truck shipment data similar to the Carload Waybill Sample available for railroads. continued next slide SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 15
Decision-Making Needs, Decision-Making Needs, cont’d. cont’d. Intermodal transfer characteristics, volume, and trends. Leveraging freight data from GPS-based resources and ITS applications (e.g., CVO, Weigh-in-Motion, Connected Vehicles). Interplay of land use policies and freight. Understanding freight activity relative to fuel costs, currency valuation, and economic trends. continued next slide SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 16
Decision-Making Needs, Decision-Making Needs, cont’d. cont’d. Applying freight forecasts to revenue projections. A multimodal, network- based freight demand model: all modes of transport similar level of detail for varied geographic scales SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 17
C20: Sample R C20: Sample Resear search Initiativ ch Initiatives 18
C20 Sample R C20 Sample Resear search Initiativ ch Initiatives The sample research initiatives demonstrate how the strategic objectives could be advanced. Each also applies to one or more of the three research dimensions—knowledge, models, and data. refer to handout SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 19
C20: Sample Resear C20: Sample R search Initiativ ch Initiatives A. Determine the freight and logistics knowledge and skill requirements for transportation decision-makers, and professional and technical personnel. Develop the associated learning systems to address knowledge and skill deficits. B. Establish techniques and standard practices to validate freight forecasts. C. Establish modeling approaches for “behavior-based” freight movement. D. Develop methods that predict mode shift and highway capacity implications of various “what-if” scenarios. continued next slide SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 20
C20: Sample Resear C20: Sample R search Initiativ ch Initiatives, s, cont’d cont’d. E. Develop a range of freight forecasting methods/tools that address decision-making needs and that can be applied at all levels. F. Develop robust tools for freight cost-benefit analysis that go beyond financial to the full range of benefits, costs, and externalities. G. Establish analytical approaches that describe how elements of the freight transportation system operate, perform, and impact the larger overall transportation system. continued next slide SHRP 2 Freight Modeling and Data Activities Update January 2014 21
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