Schools, Skills, and Synapses James J. Heckman University of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Schools, Skills, and Synapses James J. Heckman University of Chicago

The Argument Argument Polarization Skills Abilities and Outcomes Explanations Critical and Sensitive Periods Circuits Summary

The Argument Argument Many major economic and social problems Polarization such as crime, teenage pregnancy, dropping Skills out of high school and adverse health Abilities and Outcomes conditions can be traced to low levels of skill Explanations and ability in society. Critical and Sensitive Periods Circuits Summary

The Argument Argument Need to recognize the multiplicity of abilities. Polarization Skills Current public policy discussions focus on Abilities and Outcomes promoting and measuring cognitive ability Explanations through IQ and achievement tests. Critical and Sensitive Periods For example, in the U.S. the accountability Circuits standards in the No Child Left Behind Act Summary concentrate attention on achievement test scores, not evaluating a range of other factors that promote success in school and life.

The Argument Argument Cognitive abilities are important determinants Polarization of socioeconomic success. Skills Abilities and Outcomes So are socioemotional skills, physical Explanations and mental health, perseverance, Critical and attention, motivation, and self confidence. Sensitive Periods Circuits They contribute to performance in Summary society at large and even help determine scores on the tests that are used to monitor cognitive achievement.

The Argument Argument Ability gaps — cognitive and noncognitive — Polarization between the advantaged and disadvantaged Skills open up early in the lives of children. Abilities and Outcomes Explanations Family environments of young children are Critical and major predictors of cognitive and socioemotional Sensitive Periods abilities, as well as crime, health and obesity. Circuits Summary This observation is a major source of concern because family environments in the U.S. the U.K. and Ireland and many other countries around the world have deteriorated over the past 40 years.

The Argument Argument Experimental evidence on the effectiveness Polarization of early interventions in disadvantaged families Skills is consistent in a positive way with a large Abilities and Outcomes body of non-experimental evidence that adverse Explanations family environments, especially adverse Critical and parenting, substantially impair child outcomes. Sensitive Periods Circuits If society intervenes early enough, it can raise Summary cognitive and socioemotional abilities and the health of disadvantaged children.

The Argument Argument Socioemotional abilities are malleable, Polarization and neglected in most cognitively oriented Skills intervention studies. Abilities and Outcomes Explanations Early interventions promote schooling, reduce Critical and crime, foster workforce productivity and reduce Sensitive Periods teenage pregnancy. Circuits Summary These interventions are estimated to have high benefit-cost ratios and rates of return.

The Argument Argument As programs are currently configured, early Polarization interventions have much higher economic Skills returns than later interventions focused on Abilities and Outcomes promoting cognitive factors such as reduced Explanations pupil-teacher ratios, public job training, convict Critical and rehabilitation programs, adult literacy programs, Sensitive Periods tuition subsidies or expenditure on police. Circuits Summary

The Argument Argument Life cycle skill formation is dynamic in nature. Polarization Skill begets skill; motivation begets motivation. Skills If a child is not motivated and stimulated Abilities and Outcomes to learn and engage early on in life, the more Explanations likely it is that when the child becomes Critical and an adult, it will fail in social and economic life. Sensitive Periods Circuits The longer society waits to intervene in Summary the life cycle of a disadvantaged child, the more costly it is to remediate disadvantage. Similar dynamics are at work in creating child health and mental health.

The Argument Argument A major refocus of policy is required to Polarization understand the life cycle of skill and health Skills formation and the importance of the early Abilities and Outcomes years in creating inequality in America, Explanations and in producing skills for the workforce. Critical and Sensitive Periods Circuits Summary

Argument Consider One Polarization Skills Aspect of Abilities and Outcomes Explanations Critical and Increasing Sensitive Periods Circuits Polarization in Summary American Society

Consider One Aspect of Increasing Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society Polarization in American Society Argument Schooling attainment rates. Polarization Skills The U.S. high school dropout rate is increasing. Abilities and Outcomes Explanations More youth going to college. Critical and Sensitive Periods This trend is masked by official statistics. Circuits Summary

Figure 1: True Dropout Rate vs. NCES Status Dropout Rate, Males and Females 1968 – 2000 Argument 30% Polarization 26 Skills Abilities and 22 Outcomes Explanations 18 Critical and Sensitive 14 Periods Circuits 10 Summary 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 True Dropout Rate (Inc. GEDs) NCES Dropout Rate (Exc. GEDs) Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2007).

Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society Argument High school graduation as a source of growth Polarization in educational attainment diminishes and turns Skills negative for more recent cohorts of Americans. Abilities and Outcomes Explanations The decline in high school graduation rates Critical and since 1970 (for cohorts born after 1950) has Sensitive Periods flattened college attendance and completion Circuits rates as well as growth in the skill level of the Summary U.S. workforce.

Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society Argument Annual growth in labor productivity is slowed Polarization by 0.17 to 0.35 percent per year by the trends Skills that reduce the growth of labor force quality. Abilities and Outcomes Explanations America will produce less than half of the Critical and growth in college graduates than it produced in Sensitive Periods the previous 20 years despite the growth in the Circuits size of the total population. Summary Level of skill in the U.S. population is low.

Table 2: Educational Characteristics of the Labor Force Aged 25 and Over, 1980, 2000, 2020 Argument Labor Force Growth Labor Force Growth Labor Force Education 1980 1980 – 2000 2000 2000 – 2020 in 2020 Polarization Less than High School 17.3 -5.3 12.0 0.9 12.9 Skills High School Only 31.5 6.3 37.8 3.8 41.6 Abilities and Some Schooling Beyond — — — — — Outcomes High School 13.8 19.1 32.9 6.2 39.1 Explanations College Degree or More 17.3 18.5 35.8 7.7 43.5 Total 79.8 38.7 118.5 18.6 137.1 Critical and Sensitive % with College Degree 21.6% 30.2% 31.7% Periods *Assumes that subsequent cohorts have same education at age 25 as the cohort age 25 in 2000. Circuits Summary Source: Ellwood (2001).

Figure 7: Percentage of Each Gender Who Perform At Level 1 on the IALS Document Literacy Scale Argument 40 Polarization Skills 30 Abilities and Outcomes Proportion Explanations 20 Critical and Sensitive Periods Circuits 10 Summary 0 USA England Germany Sweden USA England Germany Sweden Males Females Note: The scale scores were grouped into five levels of increasing difficulty, with Level 1 representing functional illiteracy. Levels 4 and 5 were combined. The sample is restricted to adults who are between 16 and 65 years of age at the time of the survey (1994 for the U.S. and Germany, 1996 for the U.K., and 1994 –1995 for Sweden). Standard errors are calculated using the methodology described in the International Adult Literacy Survey Microdata User's Guide (2002).

Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society Argument What forces produce these low levels Polarization and adverse trends? Skills Abilities and Outcomes Are the public schools mainly responsible? Explanations Critical and Can we look to school reform to fix Sensitive Periods the problem? Circuits Summary Are higher college tuition costs to blame? The answer is “No” to all of these questions.

Consider One Aspect of Increasing Polarization in American Society Argument Contrary to prevailing views, accounting Polarization for the ability of a child at the age college Skills decisions are made, tuition costs Abilities and Outcomes and schooling quality explain a trivial Explanations fraction of the gaps in educational attainment Critical and by socioeconomic status. Sensitive Periods Circuits Summary

The Importance Argument Polarization Skills of Cognitive Abilities and Outcomes Explanations Critical and and Noncognitive Sensitive Periods Circuits Skills Summary